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04/16/2023 – Market Update

April 17, 2023 Leave a comment

 

Stocks Drifting Up

 

The stock market was slightly up last week. Precious Metals, Semiconductors, and Home Construction were ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 5/5/2023.

 
Table of Contents

 

 

Broad Market to be in Short-Term Bearish Time-Window

 

The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 14 on Friday 4/14/2023 (up from 11 the previous week) which is below the panic threshold level of 42 and indicates a bullish market. The Wilshire 5000 index is above the 89-day exponential moving average, and the momentum is positive. Based on the forecast of the Leading Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 5/5/2023.

 

The Leading Wave Index (LWX) Indicator in Last Four Weeks (Actual)

 

The Leading Wave Index (LWX) Indicator in Next Four Weeks (Forecast)

 

The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators. The current market status is summarized as follows:

Short-Term Cycle: downward
Date of Next Cycle Low: 5/5/2023
Broad Market Instability Index (BIX): 14, below the panic threshold (bullish)
Momentum Indicator: positive (bullish)

 

 
Sector Performance Ranking with Precious Metals Leading

 

The following table ranks sectors by using the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) based on six key indicators which cover long-term, medium-term and short-term timeframes. Outperforming sectors are Precious Metals, Semiconductors, and Home Construction. Underperforming sectors are Real Estate, Financials, and Telecommunication.

 

 

 
S&P 500 Index in Primary Corrective Wave A

 

As shown in the weekly chart below, since January of 2022, the SPX has been in a primary corrective wave [A] with an intermediate (1)–(2)–(3)–(4)–(5) five-wave sequence. Currently it is in intermediate upward wave (2) with a minor wave sequence of a–b–c–d–e.

 

The S&P 500 index formed a 1.5-month descending broadening wedge pattern. The price has broken above the upper boundary of the wedge. It is bullish with an upside price target projected at 4180.

 


 
German DAX Index: Elliott Wave

 

In the following weekly chart, since early March of 2020 the German DAX index has been in primary upward wave [5] which developed an intermediate (1)–(2)–(3)–(4)–(5) five-wave sequence. Primary upward wave [5] ended, and primary corrective wave [A] started. Primary corrective wave [A] is going to have intermediate (1)–(2)–(3)–(4)–(5) five-wave sequence. Currently, it is in intermediate upward wave (2).

 


 
India Bombay Index Broke above 1.5-Month Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern

 

The India Bombay Stock Exchange 30 Sensex index formed a 1.5-month descending broadening wedge pattern. The price has broken above the upper boundary of the wedge. It is bullish with an upside price target projected at 61500.

 


 
Shanghai Composite Index: Intermediate-Term Pictures

 

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index formed a 1-month descending triangle pattern. The price has broken above the upper boundary of the triangle. It is bullish with an upside price target projected at 3330. This price target has been reached.

 

In the following weekly chart, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index is forming a 5-month rising wedge pattern. It is bullish before the price breaks below the lower boundary of the wedge.

 


 
US Treasury Bond in 4-Month Broadening Symmetrical Triangle Pattern

 

The 30-year U.S. treasury bond index is forming a 4-month broadening symmetrical triangle pattern. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the triangle.

 

 
US Dollar in 1.5-Month Downtrend Channel Pattern

 

The U.S. dollar index is forming a 1.5-month downtrend channel pattern. It is bearish before the price breaks above the upper boundary of the channel.

 


 
Gold in 5-Week Rising Wedge Pattern

 

The gold index is forming a 5-week rising wedge pattern. It is bullish before the price breaks below the lower boundary of the wedge.

 

 
Silver in 1.5-Month Rising Wedge Pattern

 

The silver index is forming a 1.5-month rising wedge pattern. It is bullish before the price breaks below the lower boundary of the wedge.

 

 
Crude Oil Broke above 2-Month Descending Triangle Pattern

 

The crude oil index formed a 2-month descending triangle pattern. The price broke above the upper boundary of the triangle last week. It is bullish with an upside price target projected at 85.

 


 
Asset Class Performance Ranking with Gold Leading

 

The following table ranks asset class by using the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) based on six key indicators which cover long-term, medium-term and short-term timeframes. Gold is outperforming and the US dollar is underperforming.