11/27/2022 – Market Update
India Stocks Hit All-Time High
The India stock market hit all-time high last week. It is hard to believe this happened where China, Russia, and US were struggling with their own problems. The S&P 500 index is still flat in going nowhere. Internet, Telecommunication, and Technology are ranked as the three worst sectors with mostly weak technical strengths. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 11/28/2022.
Table of Contents
- Broad Market in Short-Term Neutral Time-Window
- Sector Performance Ranking with Energy Leading
- S&P 500 Index in Primary Corrective Wave A
- German DAX Index: Elliott Wave
- India Bombay Index in 2-Month Uptrend Channel Pattern
- Shanghai Composite Index: Intermediate-Term Pictures
- US Treasury Bond in 1-Year Downtrend Channel Pattern
- US Dollar in 2-Month Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern
- Gold in 2-Month Rising Wedge Range Pattern
- Crude Oil in 2-Month Descending Triangle Pattern
- Asset Class Performance Ranking with Equity Leading
Broad Market in Short-Term Neutral Time-Window
The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 3 on Friday 11/25/2022 (down from 6 the previous week) which is below the panic threshold level of 42 and indicates a bullish market. The Wilshire 5000 index is above the 89-day exponential moving average, and the momentum is positive. Based on the forecast of the Leading Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 11/28/2022.
The Leading Wave Index (LWX) Indicator in Last Four Weeks (Actual)
The Leading Wave Index (LWX) Indicator in Next Four Weeks (Forecast)
The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators. The current market status is summarized as follows:
Short-Term Cycle: peak
Date of Next Cycle Low: 12/16/2022
Broad Market Instability Index (BIX): 3, below the panic threshold (bullish)
Momentum Indicator: positive (bullish)
Sector Performance Ranking with Energy Leading
The following table ranks sectors by using the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) based on six key indicators which cover long-term, medium-term and short-term timeframes. Outperforming sectors are Energy, Biotech, and Oil Equipment. Underperforming sectors are Internet, Telecommunication, and Technology.
S&P 500 Index in Primary Corrective Wave A
As shown in the weekly chart below, since March of 2020, the SPX has been in a primary upward wave [5], and it has developed intermediate (1)–(2)–(3)–(4)–(5) five-wave sequence. Primary upward wave [5] has ended, and now it is in primary corrective wave [A]. Primary corrective wave [A] is going to have intermediate (1)–(2)–(3)–(4)–(5) five-wave sequence. Based on recent market movement, the S&P 500 index is still in intermediate upward wave (2), and it is going to have minor a-b-c three-wave sequence. Currently it is in minor upward wave a, and minor downward wave b will be the next.
The S&P 500 index is forming a 2-month rising wedge pattern. It is bullish before the price breaks below the lower boundary of the wedge.
German DAX Index: Elliott Wave
In the following weekly chart, since early March of 2020 the German DAX index has been in primary upward wave [5] which developed an intermediate (1)–(2)–(3)–(4)–(5) five-wave sequence. Primary upward wave [5] ended, and primary corrective wave [A] started. Primary corrective wave [A] is going to have intermediate (1)–(2)–(3)–(4)–(5) five-wave sequence. Currently, it is in intermediate upward wave (2).
India Bombay Index in 2-Month Uptrend Channel Pattern
The India Bombay Stock Exchange 30 Sensex index is forming a 2-month uptrend channel pattern. It is bullish before the price breaks below the lower boundary of the channel.
Shanghai Composite Index: Intermediate-Term Pictures
The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index is forming a 2-week descending triangle pattern on daily chart. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the triangle.
In the following weekly chart, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index is forming a 1-year descending broadening wedge pattern. It is bearish before the price breaks above the upper boundary of the wedge.
US Treasury Bond in 1-Year Downtrend Channel Pattern
The 30-year U.S. treasury bond index is forming a 1-year downtrend channel pattern. It is bearish before the price breaks above the upper boundary of the channel.
US Dollar in 2-Month Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern
The U.S. dollar index is forming a 2-month descending broadening wedge pattern. It is bearish before the price breaks above the upper boundary of the wedge.
Gold in 2-Month Rising Wedge Range Pattern
The gold index is forming a 2-month rising wedge pattern. It is bullish before the price breaks below the lower boundary of the wedge.
Silver in 2-Month Ascending Triangle Pattern
The silver index is forming a 2-month ascending triangle pattern. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the triangle.
Crude Oil in 2-Month Descending Triangle Pattern
The crude oil index is forming a 2-month descending triangle pattern. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the triangle.
Asset Class Performance Ranking with Equity Leading
The following table ranks asset class by using the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) based on six key indicators which cover long-term, medium-term and short-term timeframes. Equity is outperforming and oil is underperforming.
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