Home > News > 02/16/2020 – Market Update

02/16/2020 – Market Update

February 18, 2020 Leave a comment Go to comments

 

Stock Market at Record High Again

 

The US stock market stayed at the record high last week. Readings of our Broad Market Instability Index dropped below the panic threshold level. Technology, Semiconductors, and Home Construction sectors were leading sectors. But the market momentum was still weak. The US dollar reached our upside price target at 99 last week. Gold and the 30-year US treasury bond are in accumulation for their next breakouts. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 2/21/2020.

 
Table of Contents


 

 

Broad Market in Short-Term Bullish Time-Window


 

The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 28 on Friday 2/14/2020 (down from 76 the previous week) which is below the panic threshold level of 42 and indicates a bullish market. The Wilshire 5000 index is above the 89-day exponential moving average, and the momentum is slightly positive. Based on the forecast of the Leading Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 2/21/2020.

 

The Leading Wave Index (LWX) Indicator in Last Four Weeks (Actual)

 

The Leading Wave Index (LWX) Indicator in Next Four Weeks (Forecast)

 

The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators. The current market status is summarized as follows:

Short-Term Cycle: upward
Date of Next Cycle High: 2/21/2020
Broad Market Instability Index (BIX): 28, below the panic threshold (bullish)
Momentum Indicator: slightly positive (neutral)

 

 
Sector Performance Ranking with Technology Leading


 

The following table ranks sectors by using the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) based on six key indicators which cover long-term, medium-term and short-term timeframes. Outperforming sectors are Technology, Semiconductors, and Home Construction. Underperforming sectors are Oil Equipment, Energy, and Precious Metals.

 

 

 
S&P 500 Index in Primary Corrective Wave W


 

As shown in the weekly chart below, since early 2016 the SPX has been in primary impulse wave [5] which is the last upward wave of a multi-year primary five-wave sequence started from 2009. This fifth primary upward wave developed an intermediate (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) five-wave sequence. Both intermediate upward wave (5) and primary upward wave [5] ended in October of last year, and primary corrective wave [W][X][Y] sequence started right after.

Currently the SPX is in primary corrective wave [W] which is the first primary flat wave of the primary corrective wave [W][X][Y] sequence. This downward wave [W] is going to have an intermediate (W)(X)(Y) three-wave sequence progressively to the downside. So far intermediate flat correction (W) and (X) waves have developed. Intermediate expanded wave (X) has completed a sub-wave a-b-c-d-e sequence.

 

The S&P 500 index on daily chart is forming a 6.5-month rising wedge pattern. It is bullish as long as the price stays above the lower boundary of the wedge.

 


 
German DAX Index: Elliott Wave


 

In the following weekly chart, since early 2018 the German DAX index has been in primary flat wave [W] which will have an intermediate (W)(X)(Y) three-wave sequence progressively to the downside. So far intermediate wave (W) and wave (X) have developed. Upward intermediate wave (X) was extended.

 


 
India Bombay Index Forming 3-Month Symmetrical Triangle Pattern


 

The India Bombay Stock Exchange 30 Sensex index is forming a 3.5-month symmetrical broadening triangle pattern. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the triangle.

 


 
Shanghai Composite Index: Intermediate-Term Pictures


 

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index is forming a 9.5-month broadening triangle pattern. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the triangle.

 

In the following weekly chart, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index formed a 1-year symmetrical triangle pattern. The price has broken below the lower boundary of the triangle, a downside price target is projected at 2620.

 


 
US Treasury Bond Broke above 5.5-Month Falling Wedge Pattern


 

The 30-year U.S. treasury bond index formed a 5.5-month falling wedge pattern. The price has broken above the upper boundary of the wedge. It is bullish with an upside price target projected at 165.

 


 
US Dollar Broke above 5-Month Downtrend Channel Pattern


 

The U.S. dollar index formed a 5-month downtrend channel pattern. The price has broken above the upper boundary of the channel. It is bullish with an upside price target projected at 99. This price target was reached last week.

 


 
Gold Forming 6-Week Ascending Triangle Pattern


 

The gold index is forming a 6-week ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the triangle.

 

 
Silver Forming 5-Month Trading Range


 

The silver index is forming a 5-month trading range between 16.5 and 18.75. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the range.

 

 
Crude Oil Forming 2-Week Double Bottom Pattern


 

The crude oil index formed a 2-week double bottoms pattern. If the price breaks above the neckline, it would become bullish with an upside price target projected at 54.

 


 
Asset Class Performance Ranking with Equity Leading


 

The following table ranks asset class by using the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) based on six key indicators which cover long-term, medium-term and short-term timeframes. Currently Equity is outperforming and Oil is underperforming.

 

  1. No comments yet.
  1. No trackbacks yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s