Home > News > 02/09/2020 – Market Update

02/09/2020 – Market Update

February 10, 2020 Leave a comment Go to comments

 

Stock Market Recovered Losses from Coronavirus Fears

 

The stock market recovered losses from fears over the coronavirus, and the S&P 500 index reached record high again last week. But the market momentum stayed in the negative territory, and readings of our Broad Market Instability Index was still high beyond the panic threshold level. A choppy market is expected in the near term. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 2/21/2020.

 
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Broad Market in Short-Term Bullish Time-Window


 

The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 76 on Friday 2/7/2020 (down from 230 the previous week) which is above the panic threshold level of 42 and indicates a bearish market. The Wilshire 5000 index is above the 89-day exponential moving average, and the momentum is negative. Based on the forecast of the Leading Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 2/21/2020.

 

The Leading Wave Index (LWX) Indicator in Last Four Weeks (Actual)

 

The Leading Wave Index (LWX) Indicator in Next Four Weeks (Forecast)

 

The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators. The current market status is summarized as follows:

Short-Term Cycle: valley
Date of Next Cycle High: 2/21/2020
Broad Market Instability Index (BIX): 76, above the panic threshold (bearish)
Momentum Indicator: negative (bearish)

 

 
Sector Performance Ranking with Technology Leading


 

The following table ranks sectors by using the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) based on six key indicators which cover long-term, medium-term and short-term timeframes. Outperforming sectors are Technology, Home Construction, and Semiconductors. Underperforming sectors are Oil Equipment, Energy, and Precious Metals.

 

 

 
S&P 500 Index in Primary Corrective Wave W


 

As shown in the weekly chart below, since early 2016 the SPX has been in primary impulse wave [5] which is the last upward wave of a multi-year primary five-wave sequence started from 2009. This fifth primary upward wave developed an intermediate (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) five-wave sequence. Both intermediate upward wave (5) and primary upward wave [5] ended in October of last year, and primary corrective wave [W][X][Y] sequence started right after.

Currently the SPX is in primary corrective wave [W] which is the first primary flat wave of the primary corrective wave [W][X][Y] sequence. This downward wave [W] is going to have an intermediate (W)(X)(Y) three-wave sequence progressively to the downside. So far intermediate flat correction (W) and (X) waves have developed. Intermediate expanded wave (X) has completed a sub-wave a-b-c-d-e sequence. Downward intermediate wave (Y) is starting.

 

The S&P 500 index on daily chart is forming a 12-month ascending broadening wedge pattern. Currently the price is near the upper boundary of the wedge. A downside price target would be projected at 3000 near the lower boundary of the wedge.

 


 
German DAX Index: Elliott Wave


 

In the following weekly chart, since early 2018 the German DAX index has been in primary flat wave [W] which will have an intermediate (W)(X)(Y) three-wave sequence progressively to the downside. So far intermediate wave (W) and wave (X) have developed. Upward intermediate wave (X) just ended. Downward intermediate wave (Y) is starting.

 


 
India Bombay Index Forming 3-Month Symmetrical Triangle Pattern


 

The India Bombay Stock Exchange 30 Sensex index is forming a 3-month symmetrical broadening triangle pattern. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the triangle.

 


 
Shanghai Composite Index: Intermediate-Term Pictures


 

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index is forming a 9-month broadening triangle pattern. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the triangle.

 

In the following weekly chart, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index formed a 1-year symmetrical triangle pattern. The price broke below the lower boundary of the triangle last week, a downside price target is projected at 2620.

 


 
US Treasury Bond Broke above 5.5-Month Falling Wedge Pattern


 

The 30-year U.S. treasury bond index formed a 5.5-month falling wedge pattern. The price has broken above the upper boundary of the wedge. It is bullish with an upside price target projected at 165.

 


 
US Dollar Broke above 5-Month Downtrend Channel Pattern


 

The U.S. dollar index formed a 5-month downtrend channel pattern. The price broke above the upper boundary of the channel last week. It is bullish with an upside price target projected at 99.

 


 
Gold Forming 5-Week Ascending Triangle Pattern


 

The gold index is forming a 5-week ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the triangle.

 

 
Silver Forming 4.5-Month Trading Range


 

The silver index is forming a 4.5-month trading range between 16.5 and 18.75. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the range.

 

 
Crude Oil Broke below 3.5-Month Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern


 

The crude oil index formed a 3.5-month ascending broadening wedge. The price sharply broke below the lower boundary of the wedge. It is bearish with a downside price target projected at 52. This price target has been reached.

 


 
Asset Class Performance Ranking with Equity Leading


 

The following table ranks asset class by using the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) based on six key indicators which cover long-term, medium-term and short-term timeframes. Currently Equity is outperforming and Oil is underperforming.

 

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