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10/27/2019 – Market Update

October 28, 2019 Leave a comment Go to comments

 

Stocks Drifted Higher ahead of Fed Meeting

 

The stock market drifted higher near records last week, but hasn’t yet made new highs within the given short-term bullish time-window which will close soon. The S&P 500 index is forming an ascending triangle pattern, and the price is the third time touching the upper resistance level of the triangle pattern in last four months. The Fed’s interest rate decision this week will be important for market directions of both bonds and stocks. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 10/28/2019, followed by a bearish time-window right after.

 
Table of Contents


 

 

Broad Market to be in Short-Term Bearish Time-Window


 

The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 22 on Friday 10/25/2019 (unchanging from 22 the previous week) which is below the panic threshold level of 42 and indicates a bullish market. The Wilshire 5000 index is above the 89-day exponential moving average, and the momentum is positive. Based on the forecast of the Leading Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 10/28/2019, followed by a bearish time-window right after.

 

The Leading Wave Index (LWX) Indicator in Last Four Weeks (Actual)

 

The Leading Wave Index (LWX) Indicator in Next Four Weeks (Forecast)

 

The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators. The current market status is summarized as follows:

Short-Term Cycle: peak
Date of Next Cycle High: 10/28/2019
Broad Market Instability Index (BIX): 22, below the panic threshold (bullish)
Momentum Indicator: positive (bullish)

 

 
Sector Performance Ranking with Precious Metals Leading


 

The following table ranks sectors by using the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) based on six key indicators which cover long-term, medium-term and short-term timeframes. Outperforming sectors are Precious Metals, Home Construction, and Semiconductors. Underperforming sectors are Oil Equipment, Energy, and Internet.

 

 

 
S&P 500 Index in Primary Downward Wave W


 

As shown in the weekly chart below, since early 2016 the SPX has been in primary impulse wave [5] which is the last upward wave of a multi-year primary five-wave sequence started from 2009. This fifth primary upward wave developed an intermediate (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) five-wave sequence. Both intermediate upward wave (5) and primary upward wave [5] ended in October of last year, and primary corrective wave [W][X][Y] sequence started right after.

Currently the SPX is in primary corrective wave [W] which is the first primary downward wave of the primary corrective wave [W][X][Y] sequence. This downward wave [W] is going to have an intermediate (W)(X)(Y) three-wave sequence progressively to the downside. So far intermediate waves (W) and (X) have developed. Currently it is in upward intermediate wave (X) which has a sub-wave a-b-c sequence. Now sub-wave c is forming an ascending triangle pattern with a mini-wave (a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(e) sequence.

 

The S&P 500 index on daily chart is forming a 4.5-month ascending triangle pattern. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the triangle. The price is going to test the upper boundary this coming week.

 


 
German DAX Index: Elliott Wave


 

In the following weekly chart, since early 2018 the German DAX index has been in primary downward wave [W] which will have an intermediate (W)(X)(Y) three-wave sequence progressively to the downside. So far intermediate wave (W) and wave (X) have developed. Now it is still in upward intermediate wave (X).

 


 
India Bombay Index Forming 5.5-Month Downtrend Channel Pattern


 

The India Bombay Stock Exchange 30 Sensex index is forming a 5.5-month downtrend channel pattern with lower highs and lower lows. It is bearish as long as the price is below the upper boundary of the channel.

 


 
Shanghai Composite Index: Intermediate-Term Pictures


 

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index is forming a 7-week symmetrical triangle pattern. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the triangle.

 

In the following weekly chart, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index is forming a 10-month symmetrical triangle pattern. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the triangle.

 


 
US Treasury Bond Forming 2.5-Month Symmetrical Triangle Pattern


 

The 30-year U.S. treasury bond index is forming a 2.5-month symmetrical triangle pattern. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the triangle.

 


 
US Dollar Forming 3-Month Trading Range


 

The U.S. dollar index is forming a 3-month horizontal trading range between 97 and 99. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the range.

 


 
Gold Broke above 3.5-Year Ascending Triangle Pattern


 

The gold index formed a 3.5-year ascending triangle pattern on the weekly chart. The price has broken above the upper boundary of the triangle. It is bullish with an upside price target projected at 1570.

 

 
Silver Broke above 8-Week Descending Triangle Pattern


 

The silver index formed a 8-week descending triangle pattern. The price broke above the upper boundary of the triangle last week. It is bullish with an upside price target projected at 19.

 

 
Crude Oil Forming 5.5-Month Descending Triangle Pattern


 

The crude oil index is forming a 5.5-month descending triangle pattern. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the wedge.

 


 
Asset Class Performance Ranking with Gold Leading


 

The following table ranks asset class by using the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) based on six key indicators which cover long-term, medium-term and short-term timeframes. Currently gold is outperforming and crude oil is underperforming.

 

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