Home > News > 09/22/2019 – Market Update

09/22/2019 – Market Update

September 23, 2019 Leave a comment Go to comments

 

Stocks Momentum Weakening

 

The stock market retreated from recorded highs on the Fed’s rate cut last week. The S&P 500 index is near the end of a short-term upward wave with weakening momentum. Gold and the 30-year US treasury bond still hold mid-term uptrend. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 10/9/2019.

 
Table of Contents


 

 

Broad Market in Short-Term Bearish Time-Window


 

The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 8 on Friday 9/20/2019 (down from 14 the previous week) which is below the panic threshold level of 42 and indicates a bullish market. The Wilshire 5000 index is above the 89-day exponential moving average, and the momentum is slightly positive. Based on the forecast of the Leading Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 10/9/2019.

 

The Leading Wave Index (LWX) Indicator in Last Four Weeks (Actual)

 

The Leading Wave Index (LWX) Indicator in Next Four Weeks (Forecast)

 

The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators. The current market status is summarized as follows:

Short-Term Cycle: peak
Date of Next Cycle Low: 10/9/2019
Broad Market Instability Index (BIX): 8, below the panic threshold (bullish)
Momentum Indicator: slightly positive (neutral)

 

 
Sector Performance Ranking with Precious Metals Sector Leading


 

The following table ranks sectors by using the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) based on six key indicators which cover long-term, medium-term and short-term timeframes. Outperforming sectors are Precious Metals, Home Construction, and Utilities. Underperforming sectors are Oil Equipment, Energy, and Pharmaceuticals.

 

 

 
S&P 500 Index in Primary Downward Wave W


 

As shown in the weekly chart below, since early 2016 the SPX has been in primary impulse wave [5] which is the last upward wave of a multi-year primary five-wave sequence started from 2009. This fifth primary upward wave developed an intermediate (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) five-wave sequence. Both intermediate upward wave (5) and primary upward wave [5] ended in last October, and primary corrective wave [W][X][Y] sequence started right after.

Currently the SPX is in primary corrective wave [W] which is the first primary downward wave of the primary corrective wave [W][X][Y] sequence. This downward wave [W] is going to have an intermediate (W)(X)(Y) three-wave sequence progressively to the downside. So far intermediate waves (W) and (X) have developed. Currently it is in downward intermediate wave (Y) which will have a sub-wave a-b-c sequence.

 

The S&P 500 index on daily chart below formed a 4-week trading range between 2840 and 2940. The price has recently broken above the upper boundary of the trading range. Projected upside price target at 3010 has been reached, and a consolidation is the next.

 


 
German DAX Index: Elliott Wave


 

In the following weekly chart, since early 2018 the German DAX index has been in primary downward wave [W] which will have an intermediate (W)(X)(Y) three-wave sequence progressively to the downside. So far intermediate wave (W) and wave (X) have developed. Now it is in downward intermediate wave (Y).

 


 
India Bombay Index Broke above 2-Month Descending Triangle Pattern


 

The India Bombay Stock Exchange 30 Sensex index is forming a 2-month descending triangle pattern. The price broke above the upper boundary of the triangle last week. It is bullish with an upside price target projected at 38600.

 


 
Shanghai Composite Index: Intermediate-Term Pictures


 

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index formed a 2-month descending broadening wedge pattern. The price has broken above the upper boundary of the wedge. Projected upside price target at 3040 has been reached, and a consolidation is the next.

 

In the following weekly chart, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index is forming a 5-month falling wedge pattern. The price has broken above the upper boundary of the wedge. It is bullish with an upside price target projected at 3270

 


 
US Treasury Bond Forming 5-Month Ascending Broadening Wedge pattern


 

The 30-year U.S. treasury bond index is forming a 5-month ascending broadening wedge pattern. It is neutral before price breaks out from the wedge.

 


 
US Dollar Forming 4-Week Symmetrical Triangle Pattern


 

The U.S. dollar index is forming 4-week symmetrical triangle pattern. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the pattern.

 


 
Gold Broke above 3.5-Year Ascending Triangle Pattern


 

The gold index formed a 3.5-year ascending triangle pattern on the weekly chart. The price has recently broken above the upper boundary of the triangle. It is bullish with an upside price target projected at 1570.

 

 
Silver Forming 2.5-Month Uptrend Channel


 

The silver index is forming a 2.5-month uptrend channel pattern. It is bullish as long as the price stays above the lower boundary of the channel.

 

 
Crude Oil Broke above 4.5-Month Descending Triangle Pattern


 

The crude oil index formed a 4.5-month descending triangle pattern. The price broke above the upper boundary of the triangle last week. It is bullish with an upside price target projected 68, as long as the price stays above the upper boundary of the triangle.

 


 
Asset Class Performance Ranking with Gold Leading


 

The following table ranks asset class by using the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) based on six key indicators which cover long-term, medium-term and short-term timeframes. Currently gold is outperforming and crude oil is underperforming.

 

  1. No comments yet.
  1. No trackbacks yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s