Home > News > 07/14/2019 – Market Update

07/14/2019 – Market Update

 

Stocks Extended Rally to All-Time High

 

The stock market extended rally and closed at an all-time high last week. The S&P 500 index is forming a mid-term rising wedge pattern and will soon test the upper boundary of the wedge near the 3025 level to check if the index breaks out or reverses. The Elliott wave analysis suggests that the S&P 500 index is in the late part of intermediate upward wave, and intermediate downward wave will be the next. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 7/17/2019, followed by a bearish time-window right after.

 
Table of Contents


 

 

Broad Market in Short-Term Bullish Time-Window


 

The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 10 on Friday 7/12/2019 (up from 2 the previous week) which is below the panic threshold level of 42 and indicates a bullish market. The Wilshire 5000 index is above the 89-day exponential moving average, and the momentum is positive. Based on the forecast of the Leading Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 7/17/2019, followed by a bearish time-window right after (see the second table below).

 

The Leading Wave Index (LWX) Indicator in Last Four Weeks (Actual)

 

The Leading Wave Index (LWX) Indicator in Next Four Weeks (Forecast)

 

The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators. The current market status is summarized as follows:

Short-Term Cycle: peak
Date of Next Cycle Low: 8/6/2019
Broad Market Instability Index (BIX): 10, below the panic threshold (bullish)
Momentum Indicator: positive (bullish)

 

 
Sector Performance Ranking with Precious Metals Sector Leading


 

The following table ranks sectors by using the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) based on six key indicators which cover long-term, medium-term and short-term timeframes. Outperforming sectors are Precious Metals, Technology, and Semiconductors. Underperforming sectors are Oil Equipment, Biotech, and Pharmaceuticals.

 

 

 
S&P 500 Index in Primary Downward Wave W


 

As shown in the weekly chart below, since early 2016 the SPX has been in primary impulse wave [5] which is the last upward wave of a multi-year primary five-wave sequence started from 2009. This fifth primary upward wave developed an intermediate (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) five-wave sequence. Both intermediate upward wave (5) and primary upward wave [5] ended in last October, and primary corrective wave [W][X][Y] sequence started right after.

Currently the SPX is in primary corrective wave [W] which is the first primary downward wave of the primary corrective wave [W][X][Y] sequence. In downward wave [W] of a bear market, the fundamental news is usually still positive. Most people see the drop as a correction in a still-active bull market.

This downward wave [W] is going to have an intermediate (W)(X)(Y) three-wave sequence progressively to the downside. So far intermediate waves (W) and (X) have developed. Now it is in the late part of upward sub-wave c of a sub-wave a-b-c sequence in intermediate wave (X). Downward intermediate wave (Y) will be the next.

 

The S&P 500 index on daily chart below is forming a 7-month rising wedge pattern with a sub-wave a-b-c sequence of intermediate wave (X). It is neutral before the price breaks out from the wedge. Now the price is approaching the upper boundary of the wedge, and it will test the boundary around 3025 to check if the index breaks out or reverses.

 


 
German DAX Index: Elliott Wave


 

In the following weekly chart, since early 2018 the German DAX index has been in primary downward wave [W] which will have an intermediate (W)(X)(Y) three-wave sequence progressively to the downside. So far intermediate wave (W) and wave (X) have developed. Now it is still in upward intermediate wave (X). Downward intermediate wave (Y) will be the next.

 


 
India Bombay Index Broke Below 3-Month Rising Wedge Pattern


 

The India Bombay Stock Exchange 30 Sensex index formed a 3-month rising wedge pattern. The price broke below the lower boundary last week. It is bearish with a downside price target would be projected at 38460.

 


 
Shanghai Composite Index: Intermediate-Term Pictures


 

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index formed a 2.5-month broadening triangle pattern. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the triangle.

 

In the following weekly chart, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index formed a 21-month descending broadening wedge pattern. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the triangle. Please note there is a partial decline formed in June. This partial decline inside the descending broadening wedge pattern is a bullish sign indicating the price is likely to break above the upper boundary of the wedge.

 


 
US Treasury Bond Forming 5-Month Ascending Broadening Wedge


 

The 30-year U.S. treasury bond index is forming a 5-month ascending broadening wedge pattern. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the wedge.

 


 
US Dollar Forming 2-Month Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern


 

The U.S. dollar index is forming a 2-month descending broadening wedge pattern. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the wedge.

 


 
Gold Broke above 3.5-Year Ascending Triangle Pattern


 

The gold index formed a 3.5-year ascending triangle pattern on the weekly chart. The price has recently broken above the upper boundary of the triangle. It is bullish with an upside price target projected at 1570, as long as the price stays above the upper boundary of the triangle.

 

 
Silver Forming 2-Month Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern


 

The silver index is forming a 2-month ascending broadening wedge pattern. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the wedge.

 

 
Crude Oil Broke above 2.5-Month Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern


 

The crude oil index formed a 2.5-month descending broadening wedge pattern. The price broke above the upper boundary of the wedge. It is bullish with an upside price target projected at 66.5.

 


 
Asset Class Performance Ranking with Equity Leading


 

The following table ranks asset class by using the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) based on six key indicators which cover long-term, medium-term and short-term timeframes. Currently equity is outperforming and the US dollar is underperforming.

 

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