Last week gold had a major upward breakout from its 3.5-year ascending triangle pattern and the price surged to near 6-year high amid global uncertainties. The gold breakout flashes warning signals for the U.S. dollar and the stock market. The U.S. dollar turned bearish and broke below a 13-month rising wedge pattern. Although the stock market hit a record high last week, this rally is likely to be a bull trap before the next downward wave. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond index reached the upside price target at 155. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 7/16/2019.

The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 8 on Friday 6/21/2019 (down from 22 the previous week) which is below the panic threshold level of 42 and indicates a bullish market. The Wilshire 5000 index is above the 89-day exponential moving average, and the momentum is positive. Based on the forecast of the Leading Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 7/16/2019 (see the second table below).

The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators. The current market status is summarized as follows:

The following table ranks sectors by using the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) based on six key indicators which cover long-term, medium-term and short-term timeframes. Outperforming sectors are Precious Metals, Technology, and Internet. Underperforming sectors are Oil Equipment, Pharmaceuticals, and Energy.

As shown in the weekly chart below, since early 2016 the SPX has been in primary impulse wave [5] which is the last upward wave of a multi-year primary five-wave sequence started from 2009. This fifth primary upward wave developed an intermediate (1)–(2)–(3)–(4)–(5) five-wave sequence. Both intermediate upward wave (5) and primary upward wave [5] ended in last October, and primary corrective wave [W]–[X]–[Y] sequence started right after.

Currently the SPX is in primary corrective wave [W] which is the first primary downward wave of the primary corrective wave [W]–[X]–[Y] sequence. In downward wave [W] of a bear market, the fundamental news is usually still positive. Most people see the drop as a correction in a still-active bull market.

This downward wave [W] is going to have an intermediate (W)–(X)–(Y) three-wave sequence progressively to the downside. So far intermediate waves (W) and (X) have developed. Recently downward intermediate wave (Y) has started, and it will have a sub-wave a-b-c sequence. Now it is in upward sub-wave b. Downward sub-wave c will be the next.

The S&P 500 index on daily chart below is forming a 5-month ascending broadening right-triangle pattern. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the triangle,

In the following weekly chart, since early 2018 the German DAX index has been in primary downward wave [W] which will have an intermediate (W)–(X)–(Y) three-wave sequence progressively to the downside. So far intermediate wave (W) and wave (X) have developed. Now it is in downward intermediate wave (Y).

The India Bombay Stock Exchange 30 Sensex index is forming a 2.5-month broadening triangle pattern. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the triangle.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index formed a 6-week falling wedge pattern. Last week the price broke above the upper boundary of the wedge. It is bullish with an upside price target projected at 3000. This price target has quickly reached.

In the following weekly chart, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index formed a 4-year falling wedge pattern. Recently the price has broken above the upper boundary of the wedge. It is bullish with an upside price target projected at 3450 as long as the price stays above the upper boundary of the wedge.

The 30-year U.S. treasury bond index formed a 5-month ascending broadening wedge pattern. The price has recently broken above the upper boundary of the wedge. It is bullish with an upside price target projected at 155. This price target was reached last week. A consolidation will be the next.

The U.S. dollar index formed a 13-month rising wedge pattern. The price broke below the lower boundary of the wedge. It is bearish with a downside price target projected at 94.5.

The gold index formed a 3.5-year ascending triangle pattern on the weekly chart. The price broke above the upper boundary of the triangle last week. It is bullish with an upside price target projected at 1570.

The silver index formed a 5-month falling wedge pattern. The price has recently broken above the upper boundary of the wedge. It is bullish with an upside price target projected at 15.6.

The crude oil index is forming a 2-month descending broadening wedge pattern. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the pattern.

The following table ranks asset class by using the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) based on six key indicators which cover long-term, medium-term and short-term timeframes. Currently equity is outperforming and the US dollar is underperforming.