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11/11/2018 – Market Update

November 12, 2018 Leave a comment Go to comments

 

Mixed Market Movement

 

The stock market moved rapidly in both direction last week. The Wilshire 5000 index recovered to its 89-day exponential average but the price retreated right from there last Friday. Downward wave C of a corrective sub-wave A-B-C sequence on the SPX may be not completed yet because of a possible downward mini-wave v remaining. Gold and silver are neutral as they stay in their short-term horizontal trading ranges. After it broken down from a 1-year ascending broadening wedge pattern, crude oil declined sharply last week, and a bounce is expected next. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 11/15/2018.

 
Table of Contents


 

 

Broad Market in Short-Term Bullish Time-Window


 

The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 33 on Friday 11/9/2018 (slightly up from 32 the previous week) which is below the panic threshold level of 42 and indicates a bullish market. The Wilshire 5000 index is below the 89-day exponential moving average, and the momentum is positive. Based on the forecast of the Leading Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 11/15/2018 (see the second table below).

 

The Leading Wave Index (LWX) Indicator in Last Four Weeks (Actual)

 

The Leading Wave Index (LWX) Indicator in Next Four Weeks (Forecast)

 

The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators. The current market status is summarized as follows:

Short-Term Cycle: upward
Date of Next Cycle High: 11/15/2018
Broad Market Instability Index (BIX): 33, below the panic threshold (bullish)
Momentum Indicator: positive (bullish)

 


 
Sector Performance Ranking with Healthcare Sector Leading


 

The following table ranks sectors by using the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) based on six key indicators which cover long-term, medium-term and short-term timeframes. Outperforming sectors are Healthcare, Utilities and Consumer Services. Underperforming sectors are Oil Equipment, Home Construction, and Precious Metals.
 

 

 
S&P 500 Index in Primary Upward Wave 5


 

The SPX is in primer impulse wave [5] which is the last upward wave of a multi-year primer [1][2][3][4][5] five-wave sequence started from 2009. The current primer upward wave [5] is in progress to develop an intermediate (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) five-wave sequence.

Now it is in intermediate corrective wave (4). This intermediate corrective wave extends the correction started from the early this year, and it has a ABC sub-wave sequence. The downward move last month is sub-wave C which is the last wave of intermediate corrective wave (4). There is a bearish sign that downward sub-wave C broke below the lower boundary of a 3-year bullish uptrend channel.

 

The S&P 500 index on daily chart below formed a 4-month rising wedge pattern. Downward sub-wave C of intermediate corrective wave (4) has broken below the lower boundary of the rising wedge. This downward sub-wave C is expected to have a i-ii-iii-iv-v mini-wave sequence. Now upward mini-wave iv is ending, and downward mini-wave v will be next.

 


 
German DAX Index: Elliott Wave


 

In the following weekly chart, the German DAX index is in primer impulse wave [5] of a multi-year primer [1][2][3][4][5] five-wave sequence. Upward primer wave [5] is in progress to develop an intermediate (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) five-wave sequence. Now it is in intermediate corrective wave (4) which has a ABC sub-wave sequence. Downward sub-wave C is ending.

 


 
India Bombay Index Forming 6-Week Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern


 

The India Bombay Stock Exchange 30 Sensex index is forming a 6-week descending broadening wedge pattern. It is bearish as long as the price is below the upper boundary of the wedge.

 


 
Shanghai Composite Index: Intermediate-Term Pictures


 

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index is forming a 10-month falling wedge pattern. It is bearish as long as the price is below the upper boundary of the wedge.

 

In the following weekly chart, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index formed a 3.5-year descending triangle pattern. The price breached the lower boundary of the triangle. It is bearish with a downside price target projected at 2000 as long as the price is below the lower boundary of the triangle.

 


 
US Treasury Bond Forming 9-Month Descending Broadening Wedge


 

The 30-year U.S. treasury bond index is forming a 9-month descending broadening wedge pattern. It is bearish and volatile for the index.

 


 
US Dollar in 5.5-Month Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern


 

The U.S. dollar index is forming a 5.5-month ascending broadening wedge pattern. It is neutral as long as the price stays above the lower boundary of the wedge.

 


 
Gold in 4-Month Trading Range


 

The gold index is forming a 4-month horizontal trading range between 1185 and 1240. It is neutral before the price breaks out from the range.

 

 
Silver Forming 3-Month Trading Range


 

The silver index is forming a 3-month trading range between 14.1 and 14.9. It is neutral with the price staying inside the range.

 

 
Crude Oil Broke Below 1-Year Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern


 

The crude oil index formed a 1-year ascending broadening wedge. The price has broken below the lower boundary of the wedge. It is bearish with a downside price target projected at 55.

 


 
Asset Class Performance Ranking with US Dollar Leading


 

The following table ranks asset class by using the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) based on six key indicators which cover long-term, medium-term and short-term timeframes. Currently the US dollar is outperforming and Crude Oil is underperforming.
 
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