09/16/2018 – Market Update
Directionless Markets
The general stock market has been in sideways and almost flat near all-time highs for three weeks. The market volatility stayed low but the momentum was in the negative territory. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond index became bearish as the price broke below the lower boundary of a short-term symmetrical triangle pattern last week. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 9/21/2018.
Table of Contents
- Broad Market in Short-Term Bearish Time-Window
- Sector Performance Ranking with Healthcare Sector Leading
- S&P 500 Index in Primary Upward Wave 5
- German DAX Index: Elliott Wave
- India Bombay Index Forming 5-Month Bullish Uptrend Channel
- Shanghai Composite Index: Intermediate-Term Pictures
- US Treasury Bond Broke below 3-Month Symmetrical Triangle Pattern
- US Dollar in 4.5-Month Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern
- Gold Forming 5.5-Month Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern
- Crude Oil Forming 10.5-Month Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern
- Asset Class Performance Ranking with Crude Oil Leading
Broad Market in Short-Term Bearish Time-Window
The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 21 on Friday 9/14/2018 (down from 58 the previous week) which is below the panic threshold level of 42 and indicates a bullish market. The Wilshire 5000 index is above the 89-day exponential moving average, and the momentum is negative. Based on the forecast of the Leading Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 9/21/2018 (see the second table below).
The Leading Wave Index (LWX) Indicator in Last Four Weeks (Actual)
The Leading Wave Index (LWX) Indicator in Next Four Weeks (Forecast)
The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators. The current market status is summarized as follows:
Short-Term Cycle: downward
Date of Next Cycle Low: 9/21/2018
Broad Market Instability Index (BIX): 21, below the panic threshold (bullish)
Momentum Indicator: negative (bearish)
Sector Performance Ranking with Healthcare Sector Leading
The following table ranks sectors by using the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) based on six key indicators which cover long-term, medium-term and short-term timeframes. Outperforming sectors are Healthcare , Consumer Services, and Internet. Underperforming sectors are Precious Metals, Home Construction, and Semiconductors.

S&P 500 Index in Primary Upward Wave 5
The SPX is in primer impulse wave [5] which is the last upward wave of a multi-year primer [1]–[2]–[3]–[4]–[5] five-wave sequence started from 2009. The current primer upward wave [5] is in progress to develop an intermediate (1)–(2)–(3)–(4)–(5) five-wave sequence.
Intermediate upward wave (5) is downgraded to intermediate corrective wave (4). This wave is a large scale corrective wave and consists of a a–b–c sub-wave sequence. Upward sub-wave b terminates substantially beyond the starting level of sub-wave a as in an expanded flat. Now downward sub-wave c just started. This a–b–c sub-wave formation could become either an expanded flat or a running flat depending on where sub-wave c will end. More details about flat wave formations can be found here. The weekly chart below shows a long-term picture of the SPX staying in a 2.5-year bullish uptrend channel.
Intermediate upward wave (5) is downgraded to intermediate corrective wave (4). This wave is a large scale corrective wave and consists of a a–b–c sub-wave sequence. Upward sub-wave b terminates substantially beyond the starting level of sub-wave a as in an expanded flat. Now downward sub-wave c just started. This a–b–c sub-wave formation could become either an expanded flat or a running flat depending on where sub-wave c will end. More details about flat wave formations can be found here. The weekly chart below shows a long-term picture of the SPX staying in a 2.5-year bullish uptrend channel.
The S&P 500 index on daily chart below is forming a 5-month uptrend channel which corresponds to upward sub-wave b of the a–b–c sub-wave sequence. Currently it is in upword mini-wave 2 of downward sub-wave c which may have a 1–2–3–4–5 mini-wave sequence.
German DAX Index: Elliott Wave
In the following weekly chart, the German DAX index is in primer impulse wave [5] of a multi-year primer [1]–[2]–[3]–[4]–[5] five-wave sequence. Upward primer wave [5] is in progress to develop an intermediate (1)–(2)–(3)–(4)–(5) five-wave sequence. Now intermediate upward wave (5) is downgraded to intermediate corrective wave (4) which has a a–b–c sub-wave sequence. Currently is in downward sub-wave c. Please note that it is forming a head-and-shoulders pattern and the price is near the neckline of the pattern.
India Bombay Index Forming 5-Month Bullish Uptrend Channel
The India Bombay Stock Exchange 30 Sensex index is forming a 5-month bullish uptrend channel pattern. It is bullish as long as the price stays above the lower boundary of the channel.
Shanghai Composite Index: Intermediate-Term Pictures
The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index is forming a 8-month falling wedge pattern. It is bearish as long as the price stays below the upper boundary of the wedge.
In the following weekly chart, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index is forming a 3.5-year descending triangle pattern. The price is testing the lower horizontal boundary at 2700. Once the price breaks below the horizontal boundary, the downside price target would be projected at 2000. How to trade triangle chart patterns can be found here.
US Treasury Bond Broke below 3-Month Symmetrical Triangle Pattern
The 30-year U.S. treasury bond index formed a 3-month symmetrical triangle pattern. The price broke below the lower boundary of the triangle last week. It is bearish with a downside price projected at 140.
US Dollar in 4.5-Month Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern
The U.S. dollar index is forming a 4.5-month ascending broadening wedge pattern. It is bullish as long as the price remains above the lower boundary of the wedge.
Gold Forming 5.5-Month Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern
The gold index is forming 5.5-month descending broadening wedge pattern. It is bearish as long as the price stays below the upper boundary of the wedge.
Silver Forming 3-Month Bearish Downtrend Channel Pattern
The silver index is forming a 3-month bearish downtrend channel pattern. It is bearish as long as the price stays below the upper boundary of the channel.
Crude Oil Forming 10.5-Month Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern
The crude oil index is forming a 10.5-month ascending broadening wedge. It is bullish as long as the price stays above the lower boundary of the wedge.
Asset Class Performance Ranking with Crude Oil Leading
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