Home > News > 09/18/2016 – Market Update

09/18/2016 – Market Update

September 18, 2016 Leave a comment Go to comments

 

Holding at 89-Day Moving Average

 

The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX) stayed above the panic threshold last week. The S&P 500 index is at a critical point as prices test the 89-day exponential moving average. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 9/26/2016.

 
Table of Contents


 


 
Broad Market in Short-Term Neutral Time-Window


 

The Leading-Wave Index (LWX) is Nu Yu’s proprietary leading indicator for US equity market. LWX>+1 indicates bullish (green); LWX< -1 indicates bearish (red); The LWX between +1 and -1 indicates neutral (yellow).

 

The LWX Indicator in Last Four Weeks (Actual)
last-4-wks-lwx-9-16-2016

 

The LWX Indicator in Next Four Weeks (Forecast)
next-4-wks-lwx-9-16-2016

 

The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 47 on Friday 9/16/2016 (up from 43 the previous week) which is above the panic threshold level of 42 and indicates a bearish market. The Wilshire 5000 index is above the 89-day exponential moving average, and the momentum is negative. Based on the forecast of LWX, the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 9/26/2016 (see the second table above).

The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators. The current market status is summarized as follows:

Short-Term Cycle: upward
Date of Next Cycle High: 10/14/2016
Broad Market Instability Index (BIX): 47, above the panic threshold (bearish)
Momentum Indicator: negative (bearish)

 
w5000-9-16-2016

 
Sector Performance Ranking with Semiconductors Sector Leading


 

The following table is the percentage change of sectors and major market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). The Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total market, is 0.60% above the EMA89. Outperforming sectors are Semiconductors (8.40%), Technology (5.21%), and Internet (4.84%). Underperforming sectors are Precious Metals (-4.18%), Home Construction (-3.33%), and Real Estate (-2.50%).
 
sector-9-16-2016


 
S&P 500 Index in Primary Wave Y


 

Upward primary wave [X] started in mid-February is typically a wave inside the complex W-X-Y wave structure to link two corrective sequences. The next wave after wave [X] will be primary wave [Y] that should be a major downward wave as a zigzag correction, and it would be more dramatic than the flat correction of wave [W].

Currently the SPX is in downward primary wave [Y] and it will have an intermediate corrective (A)(B)(C) wave sequence. Now it is in downward intermediate wave (A).

Intermediate wave (A) will have 12345 sub-waves. Downward sub-wave 1 has developed, and upward sub-wave 2 will be the next.

 
spx-9-16-2016

 
German DAX Index: Elliott Wave

In the following weekly chart, the German DAX index is in a primary corrective [A][B][C] wave sequence. Downward primary wave [A] had an intermediate (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) five-wave sequence. Currently the index is in upward primary wave [B] which will have (A)(B)(C) intermediate waves. Now it is in downward intermediate wave (B).

 
dax-9-16-2016-weekly
 

India Bombay Stock Exchange Index in 7-month rising wedge pattern


 

The India Bombay Stock Exchange 30 Sensex index has formed a 7-month rising wedge pattern. Recently prices have bounced more quickly between two boundaries of the wedge.

 
bse-9-16-2016
 

Shanghai Composite Index: Intermediate-Term Pictures


 

Since last June, downward intermediate wave (A) has developed a falling wedge on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index with a 12345 sub-wave sequence. Sub-wave 5 is the last downward wave of intermediate wave (A). Once wave (A) ends, upward intermediate wave (B) starts.

Currently the index is in a bottoming process and prices are still confined in a 7-month ascending triangle pattern. The lower boundary of the triangle pattern would be a support.

 
ssec-9-16-2016


 
Major Global Market Performance Ranking


 

The table below is the percentage change of major global stock market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently the Indian market is outperforming, and the Australia market is underperforming.
 
global-markets-9-16-2016


 
US Dollar in 20-Month Horizontal Channel


 

In the following weekly chart, the U.S. dollar has formed a 20-month horizontal channel. The dollar is neutral in a trading range between 93 and 100 before prices break out from the channel.

 
usd-9-16-2016

 
US Treasury Bond Forming 16-Month Ascending Broadening Wedge


 

The 30-year U.S. treasury bond index is forming a 16-month ascending broadening wedge pattern. The lower boundary of the wedge would get tested.

 
usb-9-16-2016

 
Gold Forming 7-month Rising Wedge Pattern


 

The gold index is forming a 7-month rising wedge. Prices are confined in the wedge before the next breakout. Early this month the index formed a partial rising inside the wedge which is a bearish sign for prices to break through the lower boundary of the wedge.

 
gold-9-16-2016
 
Silver Forming 11-Week Horizontal Channel


 

The silver index is forming an 11-week horizontal channel between 18.50 and 20.75. It is neutral before prices break out from the channel.

 
silver-9-16-2016
 
Crude Oil Forming 5-Month Symmetrical Triangle Pattern


 

The crude oil is forming a 5-month symmetrical triangle pattern with prices confined between two converging boundaries.

 
oil-9-16-2016

 
Asset Class Performance Ranking with US Dollar Leading


 

The following table is the percentage change of each asset class (in ETFs) against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently the US dollar is outperforming and crude oil is underperforming.
 
asset-9-16-2016
  1. No comments yet.
  1. No trackbacks yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s