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08/28/2016 – Market Update


Watch Out for SPX Trading Range Breakdown


The SPX tried to break below the 3-week trading range last week. Once prices drop below 2160, the SPX should immediately challenge the 7-week trading range. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 9/9/2016.

Table of Contents


Broad Market in Short-Term Bearish Time-Window


The Leading-Wave Index (LWX) is Nu Yu’s proprietary leading indicator for US equity market. LWX>+1 indicates bullish (green); LWX< -1 indicates bearish (red); The LWX between +1 and -1 indicates neutral (yellow).


The LWX Indicator in Last Four Weeks (Actual)
Last 4 wks LWX 8-26-2016


The LWX Indicator in Next Four Weeks (Forecast)
Next 4 wks LWX 8-26-2016


The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 8 on Friday 8/26/2016 (down from 12 the previous week) which is below the panic threshold level of 42 and indicates a bullish market. The Wilshire 5000 index is above the 89-day exponential moving average, and the momentum is negative. Based on the forecast of LWX, the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 9/9/2016 (see the second table above).

The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators. The current market status is summarized as follows:

Short-Term Cycle: downward
Date of Next Cycle Low: 9/9/2016
Broad Market Instability Index (BIX): 8, below the panic threshold (bullish)
Momentum Indicator: negative (bearish)

W5000 8-26-2016

Sector Performance Ranking with Semiconductors Sector Leading


The following table is the percentage change of sectors and major market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). The Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total market, is 2.56% above the EMA89. Outperforming sectors are Semiconductors (9.57%), Wireless Communication (6.57%), and Internet (5.98%). Underperforming sectors are Utilities (-2.33%), Telecommunication (-1.05%), and Pharmaceuticals (-0.71%).
Sector 8-26-2016

S&P 500 Index in Primary Wave Y


Upward primary wave [X] started in mid-February is typically a wave inside the complex W-X-Y wave structure to link two corrective sequences. The next wave after wave [X] will be primary wave [Y] that should be a major downward wave as a zigzag correction, and it would be more dramatic than the flat correction of wave [W].

Now downward intermediate wave (A) of primary wave [Y] just started.

SPX 8-26-2016

German DAX Index: Elliott Wave

In the following weekly chart, the German DAX index is in a primary corrective [A][B][C] wave sequence. Downward primary wave [A] had an intermediate (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) five-wave sequence. Now the index is in upward primary wave [B] with upward intermediate wave (A). Downward intermediate wave (B) will be the next.

DAX 8-26-2016 (Weekly)

India Bombay Stock Exchange Index in 6-month rising wedge pattern


The India Bombay Stock Exchange 30 Sensex index has formed a 6-month rising wedge pattern. Now prices are testing the lower boundary of the wedge. If prices break below the lower boundary, the index would become bearish.

BSE 8-26-2016

Shanghai Composite Index: Intermediate-Term Pictures


Since last June, downward intermediate wave (A) has developed a falling wedge on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index with a 12345 sub-wave sequence. Sub-wave 5 is the last downward wave of intermediate wave (A). Once wave (A) ends, upward intermediate wave (B) starts.

Currently prices are testing the upper boundary of the 6-month ascending triangle pattern. If prices can hold above the upper boundary, the upside price target is projected at 3440.

SSEC 8-26-2016

Major Global Market Performance Ranking


The table below is the percentage change of major global stock market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently the Brazilian market is outperforming, and the Japanese market is underperforming.
Global Markets 8-26-2016

US Dollar in 19-Month Horizontal Channel


In the following weekly chart, the U.S. dollar has formed an 19-month horizontal channel. The dollar is neutral in a trading range between 93 and 100 before prices break out from the channel.

USD 8-26-2016

US Treasury Bond in 10-Month Bullish Uptrend Channel


The 30-year U.S. treasury bond index is forming a 10-month bullish uptrend channel. Currently it is in a downward swing inside the channel.

USB 8-26-2016

Gold Formed 7-month Rising Wedge Pattern


The gold index is forming a 7-month rising wedge. Prices are confined in the wedge before the next breakout.

GOLD 8-26-2016
Silver Broke Below 7-Week Horizontal Channel


The silver index formed a 7-week horizontal channel between 19.25 and 20.75. Last week prices broke below the lower boundary of the channel. Based on this bearish breakdown, the downside price target is projected at 18.30. Currently the silver index is not far away from the price target.

Silver 8-26-2016
Crude Oil in a Bullish Inverted Bump-and-Run Pattern


The crude oil index has formed a bullish bump-and-run reversal bottom pattern. Currently it is in the run phase. The upside price target is projected at the previous high around 51. The chance to meet the price target is 68% according to Thomas Bulkowski’s study on this pattern.

Oil 8-26-2016

Asset Class Performance Ranking with Equity Leading


The following table is the percentage change of each asset class (in ETFs) against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently equity is outperforming and the agriculture is underperforming.
Asset 8-26-2016
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