Last week the crude oil price breached the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern, and this could be a bullish sign for crude oil. The stock market continues drifting up as the S&P 500 index approaches the upside resistance near 2010. Based on the forecast of the Leading-Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 3/11/2016.

The Leading-Wave Index (LWX) is Nu Yu’s proprietary leading indicator for US equity market. LWX>+1 indicates bullish (green); LWX< -1 indicates bearish (red); The LWX between +1 and -1 indicates neutral (yellow).

The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 4 on Friday 3/4/2016 (down from 10 the previous week) which is below the panic threshold level of 42 and indicates a bullish market. The Wilshire 5000 index is above the 89-day exponential moving average, and the momentum is positive. Based on the forecast of LWX, the broad stock market is in a short-term neutral time-window until 3/11/2016 (see the second table above).The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators. The current market status is summarized as follows:

The following table is the percentage change of sectors and major market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). The Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total market, is 1.34% above the EMA89. Outperforming sectors are Precious Metals (24.66%), Telecommunication (7.58%), and Utilities (5.56%). Underperforming sectors are Biotech (-6.85%), Banks (-2.38%), and Healthcare (-1.85%).
 

Since last August, the S&P 500 index has been in a bear market which will have a primary corrective [A]–[B]–[C] wave sequence in a relative long-term time-frame. Primary wave [A] is the first down leg of this bear market, and it should contain an intermediate (1)–(2)–(3)–(4)–(5) sub-wave structure.

Currently it is in upward intermediate wave (4) inside downward primary wave [A]. Intermediate wave (4) is a bear market rally, and will contain a-b-c sub-waves. Now it is in upward sub-wave a (blue). There is an upside resistance around 2010 near the downtrend line. Downward sub-wave b will be the next.

In the following weekly chart, the German DAX index is in a primary corrective [A]–[B]–[C] wave sequence. Downward primary wave [A] should have an intermediate (1)–(2)–(3)–(4)–(5) five-wave sequence. Now it is in upward intermediate wave (4).

In the weekly chart, the India Bombay Stock Exchange 30 Sensex index formed a Bump-and-Run Reversal Top pattern. Early last year, the index broke below the bump trendline, and it signaled a bearish reversal. The downside price target is projected at 21000 near the Lead-in Trendline.

The chart below is a weekly chart of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index. Since the middle of last June, the Shanghai index has been in primary wave [2] which is a major correction. Primary wave [2] has an intermediate (A)–(B)–(C) corrective-wave sequence. It has completed intermediate wave (A) and wave (B). Currently it is in downward intermediate wave (C).

The Shanghai index also formed an 1-year Head-and-Shoulders top pattern, and broke below the neckline near the level of 3000. The downside price target is projected at 2000.

The table below is the percentage change of major global stock market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently the Brazilian market is outperforming. The Chinese market is underperforming.
 

In the following weekly chart, the U.S. dollar is forming a Bump-and-Run Reversal Top pattern. Recently prices broke below the bump trendline which is a sell signal for the dollar.

After an explosive advance, the 30-year U.S. treasury bond index is forming a 9-month broadening wedge pattern. Prices typically have large swings inside the wedge.

After it broke above the upper boundary of an 1-year falling wedge pattern on the weekly chart, the gold index has advanced explosively. This bullish breakout has a projected upside price target at 1300.

After it broke out from an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern, the silver index has formed a 3-month bullish uptrend channel.

Crude oil formed a 16-month falling wedge pattern. Last week prices broke above the upper boundary of the wedge. This breakout is a bull sign for the crude oil. But we will see if prices can stay above the upper boundary of the wedge.

The following table is the percentage change of each asset class (in ETFs) against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently gold is outperforming and crude oil is underperforming.