Stock Market Drifting Up
Table of Contents
- Broad Market in Short-Term Bullish Time-Window
- Sector Performance Ranking with Precious Metals Sector Leading
- S&P 500 Index in Primary Corrective Wave A
- German DAX Index: Elliott Wave
- India Bombay Stock Exchange Index in Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern
- Shanghai Composite Index: Intermediate-Term Picture
- Major Global Markets Performance Ranking
- US Dollar in Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern
- US Treasury Bond Forming 9-Month Broadening Wedge
- Gold in Consolidation after Bullish Breakout
- Silver Falling after Price Target Reached
- Crude Oil in 16-Month Falling Wedge Pattern
- Asset Class Performance Ranking with Gold Leading
Broad Market in Short-Term Bullish Time-Window
The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 10 on Friday 2/26/2016 (down from 15 the previous week) which is below the panic threshold level of 42 and indicates a bullish market. The Wilshire 5000 index is below the 89-day exponential moving average, and the momentum is positive. Based on the forecast of LWX, the broad stock market is in a short-term bullish time-window until 3/2/2016 (see the second table above).The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators. The current market status is summarized as follows:
The following table is the percentage change of sectors and major market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). The Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total market, is 1.66% below the EMA89. Outperforming sectors are Precious Metals (22.90%), Telecommunication (6.20%), and Utilities (3.80%). Underperforming sectors are Biotech (-8.20%), Banks (-8.11%), and Oil Equipment (-6.11%).
S&P 500 Index in Primary Wave A
Since last August, the S&P 500 index has been in a bear market which will have a primary corrective [A]–[B]–[C] wave sequence in a relative long-term time-frame. Primary wave [A] is the first down leg of this bear market, and it should contain an intermediate (1)–(2)–(3)–(4)–(5) sub-wave structure.
Currently it is in upward intermediate wave (4) inside downward primary wave [A]. Intermediate wave (4) is a bear market rally, and will contain a-b-c sub-waves. Now it is in upward sub-wave a (blue). Downward sub-wave b will be the next.
German DAX Index: Elliott Wave
The chart below is a weekly chart of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index. Since the middle of last June, the Shanghai index has been in primary wave  which is a major correction. Primary wave  has an intermediate (A)–(B)–(C) corrective-wave sequence. It has completed intermediate wave (A) and wave (B). Currently it is in downward intermediate wave (C).
The Shanghai index also formed an 1-year Head-and-Shoulders top pattern, and broke below the neckline near the level of 3000. The downside price target is projected at 2000.
Major Global Market Performance Ranking
The table below is the percentage change of major global stock market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently the UK market is outperforming. The Chinese market is underperforming.
US Dollar in Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern
US Treasury Bond Forming 9-Month Broadening Wedge
Gold in Consolidation after Bullish Breakout
Silver falling after Price Target Reached
Crude Oil Forming 16-Month Falling Wedge Pattern
Asset Class Performance Ranking with Gold Leading
The following table is the percentage change of each asset class (in ETFs) against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently gold is outperforming and crude oil is underperforming.