Archive for December, 2015

12/27/2015 – Market Update

December 28, 2015 Leave a comment


Bullish Tone Ahead of the Year End


A bullish reversal on the general stock market last week set up a bullish tone for stocks ahead of the year-end. The Broad Market Instability index (BIX) decreased below the panic threshold, and the S&P 500 index got in a short-term upward wave with a bullish momentum. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 1/11/2016. Hopefully, the Santa Claus rally will last all the way through New Year’s Day.

Table of Contents

Broad Market in Short-Term Bullish Time-Window

The Leading-Wave Index (LWX) is Nu Yu’s proprietary leading indicator for US equity market. LWX>+1 indicates bullish (green); LWX< -1 indicates bearish (red); The LWX between +1 and -1 indicates neutral (yellow).

The LWX Indicator in Last Four Weeks (Actual)
Last 4 wks LWX 12-24-2015

The LWX Indicator in Next Four Weeks (Forecast)
Next 4 wks LWX 12-24-2015

The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 10 on 12/24/2015 (down from 123 the previous week) which is below the panic threshold level of 42 and indicates a bullish market. The Wilshire 5000 index is right at the 89-day exponential moving average, and the momentum is positive. Based on the forecast of LWX, the broad stock market is in a short-term bullish time-window until 1/11/2016 (see the second table above). This bullish time-window is coincident with the Santa Claus rally.

The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators. The current market status is summarized as follows:

Short-Term Cycle: upward
Date of Next Cycle High: 1/11/2016
Broad Market Instability Index (BIX): 10, below the panic threshold (bullish)
Momentum Indicator: positive (bullish)

W5000 12-24-2015


Sector Performance Ranking with Semiconductors Sector Leading

The following table is the percentage change of sectors and major market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). The Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total market, is right at the EMA89. Outperforming sectors are Semiconductors (4.33%), Internet (2.84%), and Telecommunication (2.17%). Underperforming sectors are Oil Equipment (-13.70%), Energy (-6.41%), and precious metals (-2.39%).

Sector 12-24-2015


S&P 500 Index in Primary Wave A

After it completed the 8-month ending diagonal in July, the S&P 500 index has rolled into a bear market which will have a primary corrective [A][B][C] wave sequence in a relative long-term time-frame.

Primary wave [A] is the first down leg of this bear market, and it should contain an intermediate (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) sub-wave structure. Currently it is in intermediate downward wave (3) inside primary wave [A].

Wave (3) is a relative big intermediate downward wave and it would go below the August low. Wave (3) will have 1-2-3-4-5 sub-waves. Sub-wave 1 (blue) is a downward wave and it ended last week. Now it is in sub-wave 2 which is an upward wave (a bear market rally) before downward sub-wave 3.

SPX 12-24-2015


German DAX Index: Elliott Wave

In the following weekly chart, the German DAX index is in a primary corrective [A][B][C] wave sequence. Downward primary wave [A] should have an intermediate (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) five-wave sequence. Now it is in downward intermediate wave (3) of primary wave [A]. Wave (3) would go below wave (1).

DAX 12-24-2015 (Weekly)


India Bombay Stock Exchange Index in Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern

In the weekly chart, the India Bombay Stock Exchange 30 Sensex index is forming a Bump-and-Run Reversal Top pattern. Since March of 2014, the Bombay index has been in the Bump phase with a sharp trendline as excessive speculation drives prices up steeply. Prices reached a bump height with three times the lead-in height. But this year the index broke below the bump trendline, and it signaled a bearish reversal. The downside risk is very high for the index after prices break blow the 2nd parallel line. The downside price target is projected at 21000 near the Lead-in Trendline.

BSE 12-24-2015 (Weekly)


Shanghai Composite Index: Intermediate-Term Picture

The chart below is a weekly chart of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index. Since the middle of June, the Shanghai index has been in primary wave [2] which is a major correction. Primary wave [2] has an intermediate (A)(B)(C) corrective-wave sequence. It has completed intermediate wave (A) and wave (B). Now it is in intermediate wave (C).

The Shanghai Composite index also is in a 1-year Head-and-Shoulders top pattern. Right now it is forming a right shoulder. Once prices break below the neckline, the Shanghai index could fall much lower.

SSEC 12-24-2015 (Weekly)


Major Global Market Performance Ranking

The table below is the percentage change of major global stock market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently the Chinese market is outperforming. The Russian and Brazilian markets are underperforming.

Global Markets 12-24-2015


US Dollar in Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern

In the following weekly chart, the U.S. dollar is forming a Bump-and-Run Reversal Top pattern. Recently prices broke below the second parallel line which is a sell signal for the dollar.

USD 12-24-2015 (Weekly)


US Treasury in 8-Month Symmetrical Triangle

The 30-year U.S. treasury bond index is forming an 8-month symmetrical triangle pattern. Prices swing back and forth between two converging boundary lines. The direction of price movement will depend on the next breakout from the triangle.

USB 12-24-2015


Gold is in 1-Year Falling Wedge

The weekly chart shows that the gold index has formed a 2-year bearish downtrend channel. Inside the channel, it also formed an 1-year falling wedge. Recently prices bounced off the lower boundaries of both patterns. Prices swing inside the wedge before a breakout from the wedge.

GOLD 12-24-2015 (Weekly)


Silver in 5-month Broadening Triangle Pattern

The silver index is forming a 5-month broadening triangle pattern. Prices typically have volatile large swings inside this pattern before a breakout. Hopefully, it may become a bottom for silver.

Silver 12-24-2015


Crude Oil Forming 14-Month Falling Wedge Pattern

Crude oil formed an 14-month falling wedge. Prices swing inside the wedge. Now it is testing the lower boundary of the wedge. It is bearish until prices break above the upper boundary of the wedge.

Oil 12-24-2015


Asset Class Performance Ranking with Equity Leading

The following table is the percentage change of each asset class (in ETFs) against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently the equity is outperforming and crude oil is underperforming.

Asset 12-24-2015