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11/22/2015 – Market Update

November 23, 2015 Leave a comment Go to comments

 

A Best Week after a Worst Week

 

The general stock market performed stronger than we expected and traded higher last week. The market had a best week after a worst week side by side. This is a bear market rally and the S&P 500 index is still in corrective primary wave A. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 11/27/2015.


Table of Contents


 


Broad Market in Short-Term Neutral Time-Window


The Leading-Wave Index (LWX) is Nu Yu’s proprietary leading indicator for US equity market. LWX>+1 indicates bullish (green); LWX< -1 indicates bearish (red); The LWX between +1 and -1 indicates neutral (yellow).

The LWX Indicator in Last Four Weeks (Actual)
Last 4 wks LWX 11-20-2015

The LWX Indicator in Next Four Weeks (Forecast)
Next 4 wks LWX 11-20-2015

The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 29 on 11/20/2015 (down from 108 the previous week) which is below the panic threshold level of 43 and indicates a bullish market. The Wilshire 5000 index is above its 89-day exponential moving average, and the momentum is slightly positive. Based on the forecast of LWX, the broad stock market will be in a short-term neutral time-window until 11/27/2015. (see the second table above).

The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators. The current market status is summarized as follows:

Short-Term Cycle: upward
Date of Next Cycle Hight: 12/7/2015
Broad Market Instability Index (BIX): 29, below the panic threshold (bullish)
Momentum Indicator: slightly positive (neutral)

W5000 11-20-2015

 

Sector Performance Ranking with Internet Sector Leading


The following table is the percentage change of sectors and major market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). The Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total market, is 1.42% above the EMA89. Outperforming sectors are Internet (7.74%), Semiconductors (5.26%), and Technology (4.49%). Underperforming sectors are Precious Metals (-10.86%), Oil Equipment (-8.01%), and Wireless Communication (-5.80%), .

Sector 11-20-2015

 

S&P 500 Index in Primary Wave A


After it completed the 8-month ending diagonal, the S&P 500 index has rolled into a bear market which will have a primary corrective [A][B][C] wave sequence in a relative long-term time-frame.

Primary wave [A] is the first down leg of this bear market, and it should contain an intermediate (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) sub-wave structure. Based on the recent price movement, our wave counting on the S&P 500 index is recalibrated. The primary wave is still in the [A] wave with intermediate upward wave (2).

However, intermediate wave (2) will become invalidated and will degrade to downward intermediate wave (1) if it advances above the August high in the next two weeks. We will evaluate it depending the market move next week.

SPX 11-20-2015

 

German DAX Index: Elliott Wave

In the following weekly chart, the German DAX index is in a primary corrective [A][B][C] wave sequence. Downward primary wave [A] should have an intermediate (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) five-wave sequence. Now it is in intermediate wave (2) of primary wave [A].

DAX 11-20-2015 (Weekly)

 

India Bombay Stock Exchange Index in Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern


In the weekly chart, the India Bombay Stock Exchange 30 Sensex index is forming a Bump-and-Run Reversal Top pattern. Since March of 2014, the Bombay index has been in the Bump phase with a sharp trendline as excessive speculation drives prices up steeply. Prices reached a bump height with three times the lead-in height. But this year the index broke below the bump trendline, and it signaled a bearish reversal. The downside risk is very high for the index after prices break blow the 2nd parallel line. The downside price target is projected at 21000 near the Lead-in Trendline.

BSE 11-20-2015 (Weekly)

 

Shanghai Composite Index: Intermediate-Term Picture


Since the middle of June, the Shanghai index has been in primary wave [2] which is a major correction. Primary wave [2] has an intermediate (A)(B)(C) corrective-wave sequence. It has completed intermediate wave (A) and wave (B). Now it is in intermediate wave (C).

The Shanghai Composite index also is in an 11-month Head-and-Shoulders top pattern. Right now it is forming a right shoulder. Once prices break below the neckline, the Shanghai index could fall much lower.

SSEC 11-20-2015

 

Major Global Market Performance Ranking


The table below is the percentage change of major global stock market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently the German market is outperforming. The Indian market is underperforming.

Global Markets 11-20-2015

 

US Dollar in Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern


In the following weekly chart, the U.S. dollar is forming a Bump-and-Run Reversal Top pattern. Early his year prices have advanced above the second parallel line with a deep slope, but later prices have been below the bump trendline and the second parallel line for several months. Now it is testing the second parallel line.

USD 11-20-2015 (Weekly)

 

US Treasury Bearish Breakdown from 7-Month Symmetrical Triangle


The 30-year U.S. treasury bond index formed a 7-month symmetrical triangle pattern. Recently prices have broken below the lower boundary of the triangle. Based on this bearish breakdown, the downside price target is projected at 147.

USB 11-20-2015

 

Gold is in 1-Year Falling Wedge


The weekly chart shows that the gold index has formed a 2-year bearish downtrend channel. Inside the channel, it also formed an 1-year falling wedge. Prices are testing the lower boundaries of both patterns.

GOLD 11-20-2015 (Weekly)

 

Silver in 4-month Broadening Triangle Pattern


The silver index is forming a 4-month broadening triangle pattern. Now prices are near the lower boundary of the triangle.

Silver 11-20-2015

 

Crude Oil Forming 14-Month Falling Wedge Pattern


Crude oil formed an 14-month falling wedge. It could become bullish once prices break above the upper boundary of the wedge. Recently it bounced off the upper boundary of the wedge.

Oil 11-20-2015

 

Asset Class Performance Ranking with US Dollar Leading


The following table is the percentage change of each asset class (in ETFs) against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently the US dollar is outperforming and crude oil is underperforming.

Asset 11-20-2015
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