Archive
08/09/2015 – Market Update
Stock Indexes Stuck in Neutral
Table of Contents
- Broad Market in Short-Term Neutral Time-Window
- Sector Performance Ranking with Internet Sector Leading
- S&P 500 Index in Primary Impulse Wave 5
- German DAX Index: Elliott Wave
- India Bombay Stock Exchange Index in Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern
- Shanghai Composite Index: Intermediate-Term Picture
- Major Global Markets Performance Ranking
- US Dollar in Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern
- US Treasury Bond Forming Head-and-Shoulders Pattern
- Gold Bearish below 6-Month Descending Triangle
- Silver Forming 7-Month Bearish Downtrend Channel
- Crude Oil Forming 8-Month Horizontal Channel
- Asset Class Performance Ranking with US Treasury Bond Leading
Broad Market in Short-Term Neutral Time-Window
The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators. The current market status is summarized as follows:
Sector Performance Ranking with Internet Sector Leading
The following table is the percentage change of sectors and major market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). The Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total market, is 1.11% below the EMA89. Outperforming sectors are Internet (5.07%), Wireless Communication (2.63%), and Banks (2.45%). Underperforming sectors are Precious Metals (-27.79%), Energy (-11.22%), and Oil Equipment (-10.96%).
S&P 500 Index in Primary Impulse Wave 5
This primary fifth wave is the final up leg of the entail bull market started from 2009, and we are approaching the end of this final up leg right before the next market collapse. Also the primary fifth wave with an ending diagonal implies dramatic reversal ahead. Once prices break below the lower boundary of the ending diagonal, primary wave [5] will end, and primary corrective wave [A] will be the next, for a new bear market to begin.
For more information about the ending diagonal, visit: “Ending Diagonal: A Pattern That Sends Shivers Down Investors’ Spines” at Elliott Wave International.
German DAX Index: Elliott Wave
India Bombay Stock Exchange Index in Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern
Shanghai Composite Index: Intermediate-Term Picture
Currently the Shanghai index is in primary wave [2] which is a major correction. Primary wave [2] has an intermediate (A)–(B)–(C) corrective-wave sequence. In additional, the Shanghai index formed a bearish 7-month ascending broadening wedge pattern. Due to the resistance at the 89-day exponential moving average near 4100, wave (B) failed to reach the upper boundary of the wedge, and a partial rise was formed to indicat a high possibility that downward wave (C) will break below the lower boundary of the wedge. The downside price target is projected at 3200.
Recently the movement of the Chinese stock market has reduced, and the index has been confined in a small symmetric triangle. The next move depends on the direction of breakout from the triangle. The short-term bearish time-window will end by 8/11/2015. If prices break above the upper boundary of the triangle, another bounce could retest the 89-day moving average (EMA89) near 4000.
Major Global Market Performance Ranking
US Dollar in Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern
US Treasury Forming Head-and-Shoulders Pattern
Gold Bearish below 6-Month Descending Triangle
Silver Forming 7-Month Bearish Downtrend Channel
Crude Oil Forming 8-Month Horizontal Channel
Asset Class Performance Ranking with US Treasury Bond Leading