06/28/2015 – Market Update
Markets in Holding Mode ahead of Greek Resolution
Table of Contents
- Broad Market in Short-Term Neutral Time-Window
- Sector Performance Ranking with Biotech Sector Leading
- S&P 500 Index in Primary Impulse Wave 5
- German DAX Index: Elliott Wave
- India Bombay Stock Exchange Index in Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern
- Shanghai Composite Index: Intermediate-Term Picture
- Major Global Markets Performance Ranking
- US Dollar in Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern
- US Treasury Bond Bearish Below 9-Month Ascending Broadening Wedge
- Gold Forming 5-Month Triangle Pattern
- Silver Forming 5-Month Descending Triangle Pattern
- Crude Oil Forming Measured Move Up Pattern
- Asset Class Performance Ranking with Agriculture Leading
Broad Market in Short-Term Neutral Time-Window
The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators. The current market status is summarized as follows:
Sector Performance Ranking with Biotech Sector Leading
The following table is the percentage change of sectors and major market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). The Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total market, is 0.55% above the EMA89. Outperforming sectors are Biotech (5.12%), Banks (4.86%), and Home Construction (4.79%). Underperforming sectors are Precious Metals (-7.28%), Utilities (-4.87%), and Real Estate (-4.51%).
S&P 500 Index in Primary Impulse Wave 5
Primary wave [5] has been confined in a rising wedge for over 6 months. This rising wedge is also characterized as a Ending Diagonal. Since the beginning of March, it has been in corrective intermediate wave (4) with a flat correction combining two a-b-c corrective wave sequences. Corrective intermediate wave (4) ended in the middle of June. Now it is in upward intermediate wave (5).
For more information about the ending diagonal, visit: “Ending Diagonal: A Pattern That Sends Shivers Down Investors’ Spines” at Elliott Wave International.
German DAX Index: Elliott Wave
India Bombay Stock Exchange Index in Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern
Shanghai Composite Index: Intermediate-Term Picture
Since the beginning of this year, the index has been in intermediate wave (5). Intermediate wave (5) is the last up leg of primary wave [1]. Also this intermediate wave became a fifth-wave extension within a rising wedge or an ending diagonal which flashed a warning sign for a dramatic reversal ahead.
One week ago, the Shanghai index had a sharp turnaround and broke below the lower boundary of the ending diagonal. Both intermediate wave (5) and primary wave [1] have ended. Currently the Shanghai index is in primary wave [2] which is a major correction. Primary wave [2] will have an intermediate (A)–(B)–(C) corrective-wave sequence. Now it is in the first downward wave with wave (A) of this intermediate (A)–(B)–(C) correction.
A downside price target for corrective primary wave [2] is projected at 3600 based on a typical 50% retracement of primary wave [1].
Major Global Market Performance Ranking
US Dollar in Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern
US Treasury Bearish Below 9-Month Ascending Broadening Wedge
Gold Forming 5-Month Triangle Pattern
Silver Forming 5-Month Descending Triangle Pattern
Crude Oil Forming Measured Move Up Pattern
Asset Class Performance Ranking with Agriculture Leading