05/31/2015 – Market Update
Stocks Likely to Weaken in June
Table of Contents
- Broad Market in Short-Term Bearish Time-Window
- Sector Performance Ranking with Semiconductors Sector Leading
- S&P 500 Index in Primary Impulse Wave 5
- German DAX Index: Elliott Wave
- India Bombay Stock Exchange Index in Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern
- Shanghai Composite Index: Intermediate-Term Picture
- Major Global Markets Performance Ranking
- US Dollar in in Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern
- US Treasury Bond Bearish Breakdown 9-Month Ascending Broadening Wedge
- Gold Forming 3-Month Right Triangle Pattern
- Silver Forming 3-Month Uptrend Channel Pattern
- Crude Oil Forming Measured Move Up Pattern
- Asset Class Performance Ranking with US Dollar Leading
Broad Market in Short-Term Bearish Time-Window
The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators. The current market status is summarized as follows:
Sector Performance Ranking with Semiconductors Sector Leading
The following table is the percentage change of sectors and major market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). The Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total market, is 0.97% above the EMA89. Outperforming sectors are Semiconductors (6.26%), Biotech (3.88%), and Healthcare (3.60%). Underperforming sectors are Precious Metals (-4.05%), Real Estate (-2.87%), and Energy (-2.38%).
S&P 500 Index in Primary Impulse Wave 5
From early December to late January, the SPX 500 index was in a flat correction with intermediate corrective wave (2) having minor wave a–b–c sub-wave sequence. After that, the S&P 500 index is in intermediate wave (3). Wave (3) should contain 1–2–3–4–5 minor sub-wave sequence.
Since the beginning of March, the SPX 500 index has been in another flat correction with minor wave 2. Minor wave 2 is in an (a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(e)-(f) choppy sequence within a rising wedge pattern. Corrective minor wave 2 will end only when prices break above the upper boundary of the wedge.
German DAX Index: Elliott Wave
India Bombay Stock Exchange Index in Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern
Shanghai Composite Index: Intermediate-Term Picture
Since the beginning of this year, the index has been in intermediate wave (5). Now this intermediate wave becomes a fifth-wave extension within a rising wedge or an ending diagonal. Intermediate wave (5) is the last up leg of primary wave [1]. Corrective primary wave [2], potentially a crash more than 20% is the next.
A fifth wave extension or an ending diagonal implies dramatic reversal ahead. For more information about the ending diagonal, visit: “Ending Diagonal: A Pattern That Sends Shivers Down Investors’ Spines” at Elliott Wave International.
Major Global Market Performance Ranking
US Dollar in Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern
US Treasury Bearish Breakdown 9-Month Ascending Broadening Wedge
Gold Forming 3-Month Right Triangle Pattern
Silver Forming 3-Month Uptrend Channel Pattern
Crude Oil Forming Measured Move Up Pattern
Asset Class Performance Ranking with US Dollar Leading
The following table is the percentage change of each asset class (in ETFs) against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently US dollar is outperforming and Agriculture is underperforming.