Home > News > 05/17/2015 – Market Update

05/17/2015 – Market Update

 

Stock Market Waiting for a Breakout to New Highs

 

The S&P 500 index nears the end of its 10-week flat correction confined in an ascending triangle pattern. Once prices break above the upper boundary of the ascending triangle, the upside price target is projected at 2180. Gold and silver had a bullish breakout from their 3-month inverted head-and-shoulders pattern and confirmed a short-term bullish reversal. Currently the precious metals sector is leading the market. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 5/26/2015.


Table of Contents



Broad Market in Short-Term Bullish Time-Window


The Leading-Wave Index (LWX) is Nu Yu’s proprietary leading indicator for US equity market. LWX>+1 indicates bullish (green); LWX< -1 indicates bearish (red); The LWX between +1 and -1 indicates neutral (yellow).

The LWX Indicator in Last Four Weeks (Actual)
Last 4 wks LWX 5-15-2015

The LWX Indicator in Next Four Weeks (Forecast)
Next 4 wks LWX 5-15-2015

The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 15 on 5/15/2015 (down from 24 the previous week) which is below the panic threshold level of 42 and indicates a bullish market. The U.S. stock market nears a bullish breakout, but upside potential is limited. Based on the forecast of LWX, the broad stock market will be in a short-term bullish time-window until 5/26/2015 (see the second table above).

The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators. The current market status is summarized as follows:

Short-Term Cycle: upward
Date of Next Cycle High: 5/26/2015
Broad Market Instability Index (BIX): 15, below the panic threshold (bullish)
Momentum Indicator: positive (bullish)

W5000 5-15-2015

 

Sector Performance Ranking with Precious Metals Sector Leading


The following table is the percentage change of sectors and major market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). The Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total market, is 1.99% above the EMA89. Outperforming sectors are Precious Metals (4.16%), Internet (3.65%), and Biotech (3.65%). Underperforming sectors are Utilities (-1.46%), Real Estate (-1.17%), and Home Construction (-0.61%).

Sector 5-15-2015

 

S&P 500 Index in Primary Impulse Wave 5


Currently the S&P 500 index is in primary impulse wave [5]. Ideally primary wave [5] contains an intermediate (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) sub-wave structure. This fifth primary wave will be the last up leg of the entail bull market started from 2009, and this last leg can last several months which began from mid October of 2014 and will end sometime in 2015.

From early December to late January, the SPX 500 index was in a flat correction with intermediate corrective wave (2) having minor wave abc sub-wave sequence. After that, the S&P 500 index is in intermediate wave (3). Wave (3) should contain 12345 minor sub-wave sequence.

Since the beginning of March, the SPX 500 index has been in another flat correction with minor wave 2. Minor wave 2 is in an (a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(e) sequence within an ascending triangle pattern. Once prices break above the upper boundary of the triangle, corrective minor wave 2 will end and upward minor wave 3 will start.

Once prices break above the upper boundary of the ascending triangle, the upside price target is projected at 2180 based on the triangle pattern breakout.

SPX 5-15-2015

 

German DAX Index: Elliott Wave

In the following weekly chart, the German DAX index has been in primary impulse wave [5] since mid October. Primary wave [5] has an intermediate (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) five-wave sequence.

Intermediate wave (3) had a very good run, but it came to the end last week. Now it is in intermediate corrective wave (4).

DAX 5-15-2015 (Weekly)

 

India Bombay Stock Exchange Index in Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern


In the weekly chart, the India Bombay Stock Exchange 30 Sensex index is forming a Bump-and-Run Reversal Top pattern. Since March of 2014, the Bombay index has been in the Bump phase with a sharp trendline as excessive speculation drives prices up steeply. Prices reached a bump height with three times the lead-in height. But recently the index broke below the bump trendline, and it signaled a bearish reversal.

BSE 5-15-2015 (Weekly)

 

Shanghai Composite Index: Intermediate-Term Picture


Last year the Chinese stock market phased out its years-long bear market after it completed a 5-year “Ending Diagonal” pattern. A new bull market has started since last summer. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index has been in primary wave [1] which is the first up leg of a potential multi-year bull market. Primary wave [1] has an intermediate (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) five-wave sequence.

Since beginning of May, intermediate wave (5) has ended, and primary wave [2] has started. Primary wave [2] is a major correction which should have an intermediate (a)(b)(c) wave sequence, and potentially can retrace down to the 3100 level.

SSEC 5-15-2015 (Weekly)

 

Major Global Market Performance Ranking


The table below is the percentage change of major global stock market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently Chinese market is outperforming. The Indian market is underperforming.

Global Markets 5-15-2015

 

US Dollar in Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern


In the following weekly chart, the U.S. dollar is forming a Bump-and-Run Reversal Top pattern. Prices have advanced above the 1st parallel line with a deep slope since late last year. The uptrend continues as long as prices stay above the Bump Trendline. Now prices have broken below both the second parallel line and the bump trendline. The dollar has a bearish reversal.

USD 5-15-2015 (Weekly)

 

US Treasury Bearish Breakdown 9-Month Ascending Broadening Wedge


The 30-year U.S. treasury bond index is forming a 9-month ascending broadening wedge. The last upward swing was unable to reach the upper boundary of the wedge, and formed a partial rising which is a bearish signal to break to the downside of the wedge. Now prices has breached the the lower boundary of the wedge. The downside price target is projected at 136.

USB 5-15-2015

 

Gold Bullish Breakout from 3-Month Inverted Head-and-Shoulders Pattern


The gold index formed a 3-month inverted head-and-shoulders pattern. Last week prices broke above the neckline of the pattern, and confirmed a bullish reversal. The upside price target is projected at 1264 based on this pattern breakout.

GOLD 5-15-2015

 

Silver Bullish Breakout from 3-Month Inverted Head-and-Shoulders Pattern


The silver index formed a 3-month inverted head-and-shoulders pattern. Last week prices broke above the neckline of the pattern, and confirmed a bullish reversal. The upside price target is projected at 18 based on this pattern breakout.

Silver 5-15-2015

 

Crude Oil Bullish Breakout from 3-Month Double Bottoms


Crude oil formed a 3-month double bottoms pattern. Prices has recently broken above the resistance level of 54. The upside price target is projected at 62.25.

Oil 5-15-2015

 

Asset Class Performance Ranking with Equity Leading


The following table is the percentage change of each asset class (in ETFs) against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently equity is outperforming and US treasury bond is underperforming.

Asset 5-15-2015
  1. No comments yet.
  1. No trackbacks yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s