04/18/2015 – Market Update
Choppy Market Continues
Table of Contents
- Broad Market in Short-Term Neutral Time-Window
- Sector Performance Ranking with Oil Equipment Sector Leading
- S&P 500 Index in Primary Impulse Wave 5
- German DAX Index: Elliott Wave
- India Bombay Stock Exchange Index in Bump Phase
- Shanghai Composite Index: Intermediate-Term Picture
- Major Global Markets Performance Ranking
- US Dollar in Bump Phase
- US Treasury Bond Forming 8-Month Ascending Broadening Wedge
- Gold Forming 2-Month Inverted Head-and-Shoulders Pattern
- Silver Forming 2-Month Inverted Head-and-Shoulders Pattern
- Crude Oil Bullish Breakout from 3-Month Double Bottoms
- Asset Class Performance Ranking with U.S. Treasury Bond Leading
Broad Market is Going to be in Short-Term Neutral Time-Window
The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators. The current market status is summarized as follows:
Sector Performance Ranking with Oil Equipment Sector Leading
The following table is the percentage change of sectors and major market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). The Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total market, is 1.17% above the EMA89. Outperforming sectors are Oil Equipment (4.37%), Home Construction (3.75%), and Biotech (3.55%). Underperforming sectors are Utilities (-2.01%), Telecommunication (-1.30%), and Real Estate (-1.12%).
S&P 500 Index in Primary Impulse Wave 5
From early December to late January, the SPX 500 index was in a flat correction with intermediate corrective wave (2) having minor wave a–b–c sub-wave sequence. After that, the S&P 500 index is in intermediate wave (3). Wave (3) should contain 1–2–3–4–5 minor sub-wave sequence.
Since the beginning of March, the SPX 500 index has been in another flat correction with minor wave 2. Minor wave 2 is in an (a)-(b)-(c)-(d) sequence with a symmetrical triangle pattern. Now it is in wave (e) towards the lower boundary of the triangle.
German DAX Index: Elliott Wave
Intermediate wave (3) had a very good run, but it came to the end last week. Now it is in intermediate corrective wave (4).
India Bombay Stock Exchange Index in Bump Phase
1) A lead-in phase in which a lead-in trend line connecting the lows has a slope angle of about 30 degrees. Prices move in an orderly manner and the range of price oscillation defines the lead-in height between the lead-in trend line and the first parallel line.
2) A bump phase where, after prices cross above the first parallel line, excessive speculation kicks in and the bump phase starts with fast rising prices following a sharp trend line slope with 45 degrees or more until prices reach a bump height with at least twice the lead-in height. Once the second parallel line gets crossed over, it serves as a sell line.
3) A run phase in which prices break support from the lead-in trend line in a downhill run.
Since March of 2014, the Bombay index has been in the Bump phase with a sharp trendline as excessive speculation drives prices up steeply. The index maintained above the 2nd Parallel Line. The uptrend continues as long as prices stay above the Bump Trendline. Now we have a bearish signal that prices broke below the Bump Trendline.
Shanghai Composite Index: Intermediate-Term Picture
Primary wave [1] contains an intermediate (1)–(2)–(3)–(4)–(5) five-wave sequence. Now the Shanghai index is in intermediate wave (5) which is the final upward leg of primary wave [1].
Major Global Market Performance Ranking
US Dollar in Bump Phase
US Treasury Forming 8-Month Ascending Broadening Wedge
Gold Forming 2-Month Inverted Head-and-Shoulders Pattern
Silver Forming 2-Month Inverted Head-and-Shoulders Pattern
Crude Oil Bullish Breakout from 3-Month Double Bottoms
Asset Class Performance Ranking with U.S. Treasury Bond Leading
The following table is the percentage change of each asset class (in ETFs) against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently U.S. Treasury Bond is outperforming and agriculture is underperforming.