It is a bullish reversal sign that gold is breaking above its 6-month descending broadening wedge and precious metal stocks are breaking above their 2-month rectangle bottom (or double bottoms) pattern. The stock market is weakening as Santa Claus rally failed to show up within the last five days of last year and first two in this January. Also a poor performance of the S&P 500 index in the first five days of January seems to be sending a warning signal for a weak market in 2015. With volatility expected to rise, the stock market this year will be more erratic than last year. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 1/20/2015.

The Leading-Wave Index (LWX) is Nu Yu’s proprietary leading indicator for US equity market. LWX>+1 indicates bullish (green); LWX< -1 indicates bearish (red); The LWX between +1 and -1 indicates neutral (yellow).

The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 23 on 1/9/2015 (up from 3 the previous week) which is below the panic threshold level of 42 and indicates a bullish market. Based on the forecast of LWX, the broad stock market will be in a short-term bearish time-window until 1/20/2015 (see the second table above).

Santa Claus rally failed to show within the last five days of last year and first two in this January. It is the first sign for the new year to precede a bear market.

Also we should pay attention to January first five days as an early warning systems, with an 85% accuracy ratio, for predicting the year’s market results. Based on the 0.16% gain of the S&P 500 index was resulted from January’s first five days of this year, this indicator seems to be sending the signal for a weak market in 2015. By the end of this month, we will check another important indicator, the January barometer, which uses the S&P 500 index results from the entire month of January.

The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators. The current market status is summarized as follows:

The following table is the percentage change of sectors and major market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). The Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total market, is 1.34% above the EMA89. Outperforming sectors are Home Construction (9.04%), Real Estate (6.73%), and Healthcare (5.45%). Underperforming sectors are Oil Equipment (-13.04%), Energy (-8.95%), and Precious Metals (-4.55%).

Currently the S&P 500 index is in primary impulse wave [5]. Ideally primary wave [5] contains an intermediate (1)–(2)–(3)–(4)–(5) sub-wave structure. This fifth primary wave will be the final upward leg of the entail bull market started from 2009, and this final leg can last several months which began from mid October of 2014 and will end sometime in 2015.

In the intermediate level, it is now in upward wave (3). Wave (3) will likely be longer in price range than wave (1). Based on 0.618 extension of wave (1), the target of wave (3) is projected at 2225.

Intermediate wave (3) should have a minor 1–2–3–4–5 sub-wave sequence, and may need about three months to develop. After minor wave 1 ended, now it is in minor wave 2.

Wave 2 is a retracement of wave 1. It looks like that minor corrective wave 2 has an (a)-(b)-(c) sub-wave sequence. Waves (a) and (b) have come out, and (c) is the next.

According to Elliott Wave Rules, wave 2 should not go below the beginning of wave 1. Otherwise, our wave count for intermediate wave (2) and wave (3) would be revised. So let’s watch for the 1973 level.

In the following weekly chart, the German DAX index has been in primary impulse wave [5] since mid October. Primary wave [5] contains an intermediate (1)–(2)–(3)–(4)–(5) five-wave sequence. It has completed downward wave (2) and has begun upward wave (3).

The index also developed an 1-year broadening wedge pattern. Since wave (2) did not reach the lower boundary of the wedge, it formed a partial decline which has a bullish indication for a potential upward breakout of the wedge.

In the weekly chart of the India Bombay Stock Exchange 30 Sensex index, there is a possible development of a Bump and Run Reversal Top pattern. According to Thomas Bulkowski, the Bump-and-Run Reversal Top pattern consists of three main phases:

1) A lead-in phase in which a lead-in trend line connecting the lows has a slope angle of about 30 degrees. Prices move in an orderly manner and the range of price oscillation defines the lead-in height between the lead-in trend line and the first parallel line.

2) A bump phase where, after prices cross above the first parallel line, excessive speculation kicks in and the bump phase starts with fast rising prices following a sharp trend line slope with 45 degrees or more until prices reach a bump height with at least twice the lead-in height. Once the second parallel line gets crossed over, it serves as a sell line.

3) A run phase in which prices break support from the lead-in trend line in a downhill run.

Since March of 2014, the Bombay index has been in the Bump phase with a sharp trendline as excessive speculation drives prices up steeply. The index maintained above the 2nd Parallel Line. The uptrend continues as long as prices stay above the Bump Trendline. Recently prices broke below the Bump Trendline. This could be an early sign for a trend change, and it needs to be confirmed if prices further break below the 2nd Parallel Line.

Last year the Chinese stock market phased out its years-long bear market after it completed a 5-year “Ending Diagonal” pattern. A new bull market started, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index is in primary wave [1] which is the first upward leg of a potential multi-year bull market. Recently the Chinese stock market had an explosive advance and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index reached our third upside price target 3150 based on an upward breakout of the 5-year falling wedge pattern according to Bulkowski’s measure rule.

Primary wave [1] contains an intermediate (1)–(2)–(3)–(4)–(5) five-wave sequence. Now the Shanghai index is most likely ending intermediate wave (3). The next wave (4) will be a downward wave to correct wave (3).

The table below is the percentage change of major global stock market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently Chinese market is outperforming. The Russian market is underperforming.

In the following weekly chart, the U.S. dollar broke above the upper boundary of the 3-year ascending broadening triangle pattern. Based on Bulkowski’s measure rule on an upward breakout of ascending broadening triangles, the upside price target is projected at 92.4. This price target was reached during last week. A consolidation is expected next, and it could give a time window for gold to rebound.

The following chart is a daily chart of the 30-year U.S. treasury bond index in a possible development of a Bump and Run Reversal Top pattern. The index has advanced sharply along a steep trendline since mid September of last year as excessive speculation drives prices up. Now prices are reaching broke the third parallel line. The uptrend continues as long as prices stay above the third parallel line and the Bump Trendline.

The following chart shows that the gold index formed a 6-month descending broadening wedge pattern. This pattern is potentially a bullish reversal pattern although the trend is bearish. The bullish bias can be realized only when prices break above the upper boundary of the wedge. Last Friday prices broke above the upper boundary which is a bullish signal for gold.

The silver index has also formed a 6-month descending broadening wedge pattern. Prices are still confined between two divergent boundaries. This pattern is potentially a bullish reversal pattern although the trend is bearish. The bullish bias can be realized only when prices break above the upper boundary of the wedge.

After a bullish breakout from a 4-month descending broadening wedge pattern, the GDX Market Vectors Gold Miners are forming a 2-month rectangle bottom or a double- bottom pattern. It will confirm the bullish reversal once prices break above the upper boundary of the pattern.

Crude oil is forming a 6-month Bump and Run Reversal Bottom pattern. Since late October its decline has accelerated, and reached a bump low with five times the lead-in height. Now the fifth parallel line becomes an important line. It will be bearish as long as prices stay below that line. Otherwise, the forth parallel line will become a buy line, according to Bulkowski on Bump-and-Run Reversal Bottoms.

The following table is the percentage change of each asset class (in ETFs) against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently U.S. treasury bond is outperforming and crude oil is underperforming.