Archive
06/29/2014 – Market Update
Stock Markets Stalling with a Bearish Bias
Gold/silver and crude oil are in consolidations after the recent bullish breakouts from their technical resistances. Both the S&P 500 index and the 30-year U.S. treasury bond are in rising wedge patterns which are building up a bearish bias for the near future. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 7/3/2014, but a bearish time-window right after.
Table of Contents
- Broad Market in a Short-Term Neutral Time-Window
- Sector Performance Ranking with Oil Equipment Sector Leading
- S&P 500 Index in Intermediate Impulse Wave 5
- German DAX Index: Elliott Wave
- India Bombay Stock Exchange Index in Bump Phase
- Shanghai Composite Index: Long-Term Picture
- Major Global Markets Performance Ranking
- US Dollar Forming 8-Month Trading Range
- US Treasury Bond in 5-Month Rising Wedge Pattern
- Gold in Consolidation after Bullish Breakout from 3-Month Falling Wedge
- Silver in Consolidation after Bullish Breakout from 3-Year Falling Wedge
- Gold/Silver Stocks in Consolidation after Bullish Breakout from 3-Month Falling Wedge
- GDX Gold Miners ETF in Consolidation after Bullish Breakout from 3-Month Falling Wedge
- Crude Oil Bullish in Consolidation after Breakout from 4-Month Ascending Triangle
- Asset Class Performance Ranking with Crude Oil Leading
Broad Market in a Short-Term Neutral Time-Window
The LWX (Leading Wave Index) is Nu Yu’s proprietary leading indicator for US equity market. LWX>+1 indicates bullish (green); LWX< -1 indicates bearish (red); The LWX between +1 and -1 indicates neutral (yellow).
The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 4 on 6/27/2014 (unchanged from 4 the previous week) which is below the panic threshold level of 42 and indicates a bullish market. Based on the forecast of the Leading-Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market would stay in a short-term neutral time-window until 7/3/2014. And a short-term bearish would be right after (see the second table above). The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators. The current market status is summarized as follows:

The following table is the percentage change of sectors and major market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). The Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total market, is 3.79% above the EMA89. Outperforming sectors are Oil Equipment (11.63%), Semiconductors (9.16%), and Energy (6.95%). Underperforming sectors are Telecommunication (2.08%), Banks (2.24%), and Industrials (2.40%).
The current status of the S&P 500 index in the long-term, medium-term, and short term is as follows:
For the long-term, it is in primary wave [3]. Based on the length of primary wave [1] between the low of 667 on 3/6/2009 and the high of 1365 on 4/29/2011, the upside price target of wave [3] is projected at 2063 by using 1.000 extension of wave [1].
For the medium-term, the S&P 500 index is in intermediate wave (5) which is the final leg of primary wave [3]. Based on the length of intermediate wave (1) between the low of 1099 on 10/3/2011 and the high of 1419 on 4/2/2012, the upside price target of wave (5) is projected at 2060 by using 1.000 extension of wave (1). It looks like that a rising wedge pattern (ending diagonal) is developing with wave (5).
For the short-term, the S&P 500 index is in minior wave 3 which is the middle part of intermediate wave (5). Based on the length of minor wave 1 between the low of 1815 on 4/11/2014 and the high of 1897 on 5/13/2014, the upside price target of wave 3 is projected at 1979 by using 1.000 extension of wave 1.
The German DAX index has had a very high correlation with the S&P 500 index for last 20 years. Currently it has a similar Elliott Wave structure to the S&P 500 index, and it is in primary wave [3], intermediate wave (5), and minor wave 3.
In the weekly chart of the India Bombay Stock Exchange 30 Sensex index, there is a possible development of a Bump and Run Reversal Top pattern. According to Thomas Bulkowski, the Bump-and-Run Reversal Top pattern consists of three main phases:
1) A lead-in phase in which a lead-in trend line connecting the lows has a slope angle of about 30 degrees. Prices move in an orderly manner and the range of price oscillation defines the lead-in height between the lead-in trend line and the first parallel line.
2) A bump phase where, after prices cross above the first parallel line, excessive speculation kicks in and the bump phase starts with fast rising prices following a sharp trend line slope with 45 degrees or more until prices reach a bump height with at least twice the lead-in height. Once the second parallel line gets crossed over, it serves as a sell line.
3) A run phase in which prices break support from the lead-in trend line in a downhill run.
Since March of this year, the Bombay index has been in the Bump phase with a sharp trendline as excessive speculation drives prices up steeply. Recently it tested the second parallel line but was unable to stay above the second parallel line. This is the first bearish sign that the index may be forming a reversal top.
The following weekly chart of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index shows a 5-year falling wedge pattern. After a long time sliding, it should be close to a point to challenge the upper boundary of the falling wedge possibly in this year. Falling wedges typically build up a bullish bias as it becomes mature. This bullish bias can be realized only when prices break through the upper boundary of the wedge to the upside.
Also the Shanghai index has formed another 1.5-year descending triangle pattern inside the falling wedge. It provides us another technical gauge to measure moves of the index. The index has defended the level of 2000 very well for last one and half years. Now it still stays above 2000. Hopefully it is in a bottom process. A breakout to the upside of either the falling wedge or the descending triangle would be explosive.
The table below is the percentage change of major global stock market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently Indian market is outperforming. The Chinese market is underperforming.
The U.S. dollar is forming a 8-month trading range between 79.2 and 81.4. Last month it bounced off the lower boundary of the trading range. The upper boundary of the trading range should be the next price target.
The following chart is a daily chart of the 30-year U.S. treasury bond index. It is in a 5-month rising wedge pattern. Now it is near the lower boundary of the wedge. No price target is projected before a breakout from the wedge.
The gold index recently had a bullish breakout from a 3-month falling wedge pattern. After an explosive advance, it is now in a consolidation. The upside price target is projected at 1380.
The silver index recently had a bullish breakout from its 3-year falling wedge pattern. After an explosive advance, it is now in a consolidation. The initial upside price target is projected at 24.
Gold/silver mining stocks recently had a bullish breakout from a 3-month falling wedge pattern. After an explosive advance, now it is in a consolidation. The upside price target is projected at 102.
The GDX Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF recently had a bullish breakout from a 3-month falling wedge pattern. After an explosive advance, now it is in a consolidation. The upper side price target is projected at 26.75.
Crude oil recently had a bullish breakout from a 4-month ascending triangle pattern. Now it is in a consolidation. The upside price target is projected at 110.
The following table is the percentage change of each asset class (in ETFs) against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently crude oil is outperforming and the U.S. dollar is underperforming.