Ending Diagonal Scenario for S&P 500 Index

A multi-month rising wedge on the S&P 500 index chart suggests an ending diagonal pattern occurring in the fifth wave. The broad stock market should be in a short-term bullish time-window until 10/25/2013.

Table of Contents

• Broad Market in Short-Term Bullish Time-Window
• Long-Term Picture of the S&P 500 Index
• Short-Term Picture of the S&P 500 Index
• Market Ratio and Competitive Strength
• Gold Forming 12-Month Descending Broadening Wedge
• Long-Term Picture: Silver in a 2.5-Year Falling Wedge Pattern
• Gold/Silver Stocks Forming 6-Month Horizontal Trading Range
• Crude Oil Forming 8-Week Falling Wedge
• US Dollar Forming 3-Month Falling Wedge
• US Treasury Bond Forming a Bump-and-Run Reversal Bottom Pattern
• Asset Class Performance Ranking with Equity Leading
• Sector Performance Ranking with Internet Sector Leading
• BRIC Stock Market Performance Ranking with the Russian Market Leading

Broad Market in Short-Term Bullish Time-Window

The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 1 on 10/18/2013 (down from 22 the previous week) which is below the panic threshold level of 42 and indicates a bullish market. The short-term time-window for the broad market has changed from neutral to bullish. Based on the forecast of the Leading-Wave Index (LWX), this short-term time-window should remain bullish until 10/25/2013 (see the second table above). The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators. The current market status is summarized as follows:

The following chart is a weekly chart of the S&P 500 index, with my Elliott Wave count, in a four-year time span. The stock market crash of 2008 had a massive washout and reset the market in early March 2009 as “ground zero” for the beginning of wave count.

There are three degrees of waves: Primary, Intermediate, and Minor waves in this weekly chart. It shows that the SPX currently is in primary wave [3], intermediate wave (3), and minor wave 5.

A long-term price target for primary wave [3] is projected at 1796 by using 0.618 extension of wave [1]. However, there would be a corrective wave, i.e., intermediate wave (4), before the price target of 1796.

Please note that this wave counting is slightly different from what I mentioned before. The reason is discussed in the next section.

Short-Term Picture: S&P 500 Index Forming a 5-Month Rising Wedge Pattern

As shown in the daily chart below, the S&P 500 index is forming a 5-month rising wedge pattern. This rising wedge is also characterized as an Ending Diagonal which substitutes for the fifth impulse wave and configures minor wave 5 extension pattern with five minute subwaves i, ii, iii, vi, and v confined between two converging lines. Therefore, the S&P 500 should still be in the late part of intermediate wave (3); intermediate corrective wave (4) should be next. Please note that this wave counting is different from what I mentioned in the last several weeks.

The ending diagonal pattern is bearish because price usually breaks out downward from the pattern to trigger a sharp decline to the starting point of the diagonal. For more information about the ending diagonal, visit: Ending Diagonal: A Pattern That Sends Shivers Down Investors’ Spines.

The market ratio is very helpful to compare strengths between two markets. The table below tracks weekly performances for several pairs of markets, i.e., the euro vs. the US dollar, the Greek market vs. the Chinese market, the long-term rate vs. the short-term rate, the S&P 500 index vs. gold, small caps vs. large caps, and the US market vs. the world market.

For each pair of markets listed in the table, the market ratio is calculated by dividing one market by another. Then the competitive strength is further evaluated from a percentage change of the ratio against its 89-day exponential moving average. The results divide the markets into two groups: outperforming markets and underperforming markets, for this week as follows:

Each week I talk about one pair of markets in the table above. This week let’s have a look at the euro vs. the U.S. dollar.

Euro vs. U.S. Dollar: The chart below is a weekly chart for the ratio of the euro to the U.S. dollar in last seven years. The ratio has been in a symmetrical triangle pattern for six years. The central line of the triangle is at 1.7. Currently the ratio swings up and crosses over 1.70 to make the euro stronger than the US dollar.

The gold index is forming an 12-month Descending Broadening Wedge pattern on the daily chart. Late August price touched the upper boundary of the wedge and began falling again. Gold should be neutral before it breaks above the upper boundary of the wedge.

The silver index has formed a 2.5-year falling wedge pattern. Silver will remain bearish with range-bounded swings before a breakout from the wedge.

Gold/silver mining stocks are forming a 6-month horizontal trading range. They are currently bearish and near the lower boundary of the range.

Crude oil is forming a 8-week falling wedge. It will remain bearish with range-bounded swings before a breakout from the wedge.

The U.S. dollar is forming a 3-month falling wedge. It will remain bearish with range-bounded swings before a breakout from the wedge.

The 30-year U.S. treasury bond is forming a Bump-and-Run Reversal Bottom Pattern. It has been in the bearish bump phase since June. Last month prices reached the second parallel line with two times of the lead-in channel height. Recently prices have crossed above the second parallel line (buy line). This crossing could be a bullish reversal sign for the treasury bond as long as it stays above the second parallel line.

The following table is the percentage change of each asset class (in ETFs) against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently equity is outperforming, and gold is underperforming.

The following table is the percentage change of sectors and major market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). The Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total market, is 5.17% above the EMA89. Outperforming sectors are Internet (9.79%), Biotech (8.69%), and Oil Equipment (8.01%). Underperforming sectors are Precious Metals (-2.40%), Home Construction (-1.65%), and Utilities (1.91%).

The table below is the percentage change of the BRIC stock market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89), also in comparison to the US market. Currently the Russian market is leading.