Archive for October 14, 2013

10/14/2013 – Market Update

October 14, 2013 Leave a comment

Debt Ceiling Deadline Approaching

How and how soon the U.S. fiscal deadlock ends could dramatically or even surprisingly change the course of financial markets. The broad stock market is likely to stay volatile this week, and it should be in the short-term neutral time-window until 10/28/2013.

Table of Contents

Broad Market in Short-Term Neutral Time-Window

The LWX Indicator in Last Four Weeks (Actual)
Last 4 wks LWX 10-11-2013

The LWX Indicator in Next Four Weeks (Forecast)
Next 4 wks LWX 10-11-2013

The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 22 on 10/11/2013 (up from 10 the previous week) which is below the panic threshold level of 42 and indicates a bullish market. Based on the forecast of the Leading-Wave Index (LWX), the broad market should be in a short-term neutral time-window until 10/28/2013 (see the second table above). The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators. The current market status is summarized as follows:

Short-Term Cycle: upward
Date of Next Cycle High: 10/28/2013
Broad Market Instability Index (BIX): 22, below the panic threshold (bullish)
Momentum Indicator: positive (bullish)

W5000 10-11-2013

Short-Term Picture: S&P 500 Index Forming a 5-Month Rising Wedge Pattern

The S&P 500 index is forming a 5-month rising wedge pattern. If it breaks below the lower boundary of the wedge, a downside price target would be 1630.

SPX  10-11-2013

Long-Term Picture: Elliott Wave Count on S&P 500 Index

The following chart is a weekly chart of the S&P 500 index, with my Elliott Wave count, in a four-year time span. The stock market crash of 2008 had a massive washout and reset the market in early March 2009 as “ground zero” for the beginning of wave count.

There are three degrees of waves: Primary, Intermediate, and Minor waves in this weekly chart. It shows that the SPX currently is in primary wave [3], intermediate wave (4), and minor wave C.

A long-term price target for primary wave [3] is projected at 1770 by using 0.618 extension of wave [1]. However, there would be a corrective wave, i.e., intermediate wave (4), before the price target of 1770.

SPX Elliott Wave 10-11-2013 (Weekly)

Since early August, the S&P 500 index has been in a correction with intermediate wave (4) which should consist of short-term minor waves A-B-C. As shown in the chart below, wave B has terminated above the starting level of wave A. This move could be a setup for a Expanded Flat Elliott Wave pattern, and it suggests that current wave C could go more substantially below the ending level of wave A. In other words, the current downwave could send the SPX more substantially below August low.

However, the bounce in last week may or may not change the course of the Expanded Flat pattern. It depends on how the bounce develops further. If the bounce continues going beyond the ending level of wave B, this A-B-C correction would become a Running Flat Elliott Wave pattern, i.e., the end of this A-B-C correction would be near. Other wise, the A-B-C correction would continue and wave C would resume towards the downside.

SPX Elliott Wave 10-11-2013 (Daily)

Market Ratio and Competitive Strength

The market ratio is very helpful to compare strengths between two markets. The table below tracks weekly performances for several pairs of markets, i.e., the euro vs. the US dollar, the Greek market vs. the Chinese market, the long-term rate vs. the short-term rate, the S&P 500 index vs. gold, small caps vs. large caps, and the US market vs. the world market.

For each pair of markets listed in the table, the market ratio is calculated by dividing one market by another. Then the competitive strength is further evaluated from a percentage change of the ratio against its 89-day exponential moving average. The results divide the markets into two groups: outperforming markets and underperforming markets, for this week as follows:

Market Ratios 10-11-2013

Each week I talk about one pair of markets in the table above. This week let’s have a look at the euro vs. the U.S. dollar.

Euro vs. U.S. Dollar: The chart below is a weekly chart for the ratio of the euro to the U.S. dollar in last seven years. The ratio has been in a symmetrical triangle pattern for six years. The central line of the triangle is at 1.7. Currently the ratio swings up towards 1.70 to make the euro stronger than the US dollar.

Euro vs US Dollar 10-11-2013

Gold Forming 12-Month Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern

The gold index is forming an 12-month Descending Broadening Wedge pattern on the daily chart. Late August price touched the upper boundary of the wedge and began falling again. Gold should be neutral before it breaks above the upper boundary of the wedge.

GOLD 10-11-2013

Long-Term Picture: Silver in a 2.5-Year Falling Wedge Pattern

The silver index has formed a 2.5-year falling wedge pattern. Silver will remain bearish with range-bounded swings before a breakout from the wedge.

Silver 10-11-2013 (Weekly)

Gold/Silver Mining Stocks Forming 6-Month Horizontal Trading Range

Gold/silver mining stocks are forming a 6-month horizontal trading range. They are currently bearish and are going to test the lower boundary of the range.

XAU HUI 10-11-2013

Crude Oil Forming 7-Week Falling Wedget

Crude oil is forming a 7-week falling wedge. It will remain bearish with range-bounded swings before a breakout from the wedge.

Oil 10-11-2013

US Dollar Forming 3-Month Falling Wedge

The U.S. dollar is forming a 3-month falling wedge. It will remain bearish with range-bounded swings before a breakout from the wedge.

USD 10-11-2013

US Treasury Bond Forming a Bump-and-Run Reversal Bottom Pattern

The 30-year U.S. treasury bond is forming a Bump-and-Run Reversal Bottom Pattern. It has been in the bearish bump phase since June. Last month prices reached the second parallel line with two times of the lead-in channel height. Recently prices have crossed above the second parallel line (buy line). This crossing could be a bullish reversal sign for the treasury bond as long as it stays above the second parallel line.

USB 10-11-2013

Asset Class Performance Ranking with Equity Leading

The following table is the percentage change of each asset class (in ETFs) against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently equity is outperforming, and gold is underperforming.

Asset 10-11-2013

Sector Performance Ranking with Internet Sector Leading

The following table is the percentage change of sectors and major market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). The Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total market, is 3.00% above the EMA89. Outperforming sectors are Internet (9.33%), Oil Equipment (5.04%), and Biotech (4.59%). Underperforming sectors are Precious Metals (-7.93%), Home Construction (-4.04%), and Telecommunication (-1.15%).

Sector 10-11-2013

BRIC Stock Market Performance Ranking with the Russian Market Leading

The table below is the percentage change of the BRIC stock market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89), also in comparison to the US market. Currently the Russian market is leading.

BRIC 10-11-2013