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07/08/2013 – Market Update

Market Momentum Becomes Positive

The broad stock market is out of the 6-week-long correction, and resumes uptrend. The SPX is in the early part of impulse minor wave 5, and it could challenge the previous high around 1680 soon. The broad stock market should be in a short-term bullish time-window until 7/17/2013.

Table of Contents

Broad Market is in Short-Term Bullish Time-Window

The LWX Indicator in Last Four Weeks (Actual)
Last 4 wks LWX 7-5-2013

The LWX Indicator in Next Four Weeks (Forecast)
Next 4 wks LWX 7-5-2013

The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 14 on 7/5/2013 (down from 40 the previous week) which is below the panic threshold level of 43 and indicates a bullish market. Based on the forecast of the Leading-Wave Index (LWX), the broad market should be in the short-term bullish time-window until 7/17/2013 (see the second table above). The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators. The current market status is summarized as follows:

Short-Term Cycle: upward
Date of Next Cycle High: 7/17/2013
Broad Market Instability Index (BIX): 14, below the panic threshold (bullish)
Momentum Indicator: positive (bullish)

W5000 7-5-2013

Intermediate-Term Picture: S&P 500 Index in 3-Month Descending Broadening Triangle Pattern

The S&P 500 index is forming a 3-month Descending Broadening Triangle pattern. In a bull market, this pattern tends to have an upward breakout. Once prices break above the upper boundary of the wedge, the upside price target could be projected at the top of the wedge, 1680 for the SPX.

SPX  7-5-2013

Long-Term Picture: Elliott Wave Count on S&P 500 Index

The following chart is a weekly chart of the S&P 500 index, with my Elliott Wave count, in a four-year time span. The stock market crash of 2008 had a massive washout and reset the market in early March 2009 as “ground zero” for the beginning of wave count.

There are three degrees of waves: Primary, Intermediate, and Minor waves in this weekly chart. It shows that the SPX currently is in primary wave [3], intermediate wave (3), and minor wave 4.

A long-term price target for primary wave [3] is projected at 1770 by using 0.618 extension of wave [1]. However, there would be a couple of corrective waves, i.e., minor wave 4 and intermediate wave (4), before the price target of 1770.

SPX Elliott Wave 7-5-2013 (Weekly)

Short-Term Picture: Elliott Wave Count on S&P 500 Index

The S&P 500 index may have finished minor wave 4 with minute waves [a], [b], and [c]. Now it should be in the early part of minor wave 5.

SPX Elliott Wave 7-5-2013 (Daily)

Market Ratio and Competitive Strength

The market ratio is very helpful to compare strengths between two markets. The table below tracks weekly performances for several pairs of markets, i.e., the euro vs. the US dollar, the Greek market vs. the Chinese market, the long-term rate vs. the short-term rate, the S&P 500 index vs. gold, small caps vs. large caps, and the US market vs. the world market.

For each pair of markets listed in the table, the market ratio is calculated by dividing one market by another. Then the competitive strength is further evaluated from a percentage change of the ratio against its 89-day exponential moving average. The results divide the markets into two groups: outperforming markets and underperforming markets, for this week as follows:

Market Ratios 7-5-2013

This year each week I talk about one pair of markets in the table above. This week let’s check the U.S. stock market vs. the international stock market.

U.S. Stock Market vs. International Stock Market: The chart below is a daily chart in seven-month time span for the ratio of the Wilshire 5000 Index to the Dow Jones World Stock Index. The previous downtrend of the ratio ended in late December. The ratio has been in an advance since then. It indicates that the U.S. stock market has been outperforming the international stock market so far this year. Mid June the ratio broke above the upper boundary of the 5-month uptrend channel. It could be a setup for a “Bump and Run Reversal Top” pattern. Now it is in the “Bump” phase and above the Bump Trendline. This is a bullish sign for a strong U.S. market.

W5000 vs World 7-5-2013

Gold in 3-Month Falling Wedge Pattern

The gold index is forming a 3-month Falling Wedge pattern. It should be bearish until prices break above the upper boundary of the wedge.

GOLD 7-5-2013

Long-Term Picture: Silver Still Has Room to Fall

The following chart is a monthly chart for silver in 12 years. Silver has broken to the downside from its 2-year Descending Triangle pattern. By using Bulkowski’s measure rule on descending triangles, the long-term downside price target is projected at 15 for silver.

Silver 7-5-2013 (Monthly)

Gold/Silver Mining Stocks in 10-Month Downtrend Channel

Gold/silver mining stocks are in a 10-month bearish downtrend channel.

XAU HUI 7-5-2013

Crude Oil Bullish Breakout from 11-Month Trading Range

Crude oil broke above the upper boundary of the 11-month horizontal trading range. Crude oil becomes bullish with an upside price target at 110.

Oil 7-5-2013

US Dollar Forming 4-Month Broadening Symmetrical Triangle Pattern

The U.S. dollar is forming a 4-month Broadening Symmetrical Triangle pattern. Prices could large swins inside the triangle before next breakout from the triangle.

USD 7-5-2013

US Treasury Bond Broke Below 12-Month Bearish Downtrend Channel

The 30-year U.S. treasury bond broke below the lower boundary of the 12-month downtrend channel. This breakdown is a very bearish sign for the bond. It may look for a support from the 2nd parallel line.

USB 7-5-2013

Asset Class Performance Ranking with Crude Oil Leading

The following table is the percentage change of each asset class (in ETFs) against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently Crude Oil is outperforming, and gold is underperforming.

Asset 7-5-2013

Sector Performance Ranking with Bank Sector Leading

The following table is the percentage change of sectors and major market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). The Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total market, is 2.92% above the EMA89. Outperforming sectors are Banks (7.30%), Internet (5.82%), and Biotech (5.78%). Underperforming sectors are Precious Metals (-21.26%), Home Construction (-9.82%), and Real Estate (-3.85%). The Russell 2000 Small-cap is outperforming and the Dow Jones Industrial is underperforming.

Sector 7-5-2013

BRIC Stock Market Performance Ranking with the Brazilian Market Lagging

The table below is the percentage change of the BRIC stock market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89), also in comparison to the US market. Currently the Brazilian market is lagging.

BRIC 7-5-2013
  1. July 13, 2013 at 1:18 pm

    Since we’ve seen the 1680 on Friday, how much of a pull back do you see before the last leg up?

    • July 15, 2013 at 2:59 pm

      Right now it is just minute wave 1 of this minor wave 5 since June 25. We should wait for finishing minute wave 1. After that, minute wave 2 could potentially retrace 30-60% of minute wave 1.

      Nu Yu

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