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11/11/2012 – Market Update

November 11, 2012 Leave a comment Go to comments
Potential Bear Trap

The broad stock market is possibly forming a “Three Peaks and a Domed House” pattern. After the “Three Peaks” phase was completed last month, the market has been in the “Separating Decline” for three weeks. Now it is reaching the “Basement” phase. If this phase gets successfully established, the “Basement” phase would be a “Bear trap”.

Table of Contents

The Broad Market Reaches the Short-Term Cycle Low

The LWX Indicator in Last Four Weeks (Actual)

The LWX Indicator in Next Four Weeks (Forecast)

The broad stock market has been in a correction. The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 100 (up from 53 the previous week) which is above the panic threshold level of 44. Based on the forecast of the Leading Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market should be in a short-term bullish time-window until 12/3/2012 (see the second table above). The daily chart of the Wilshire 5000 index below has the price bars color coded with the LWX indicator. The current market status is summarized as follows:

Short-Term Cycle: cycle low
Next Reversal Date: 12/3/2012
Broad Market Instability Index (BIX): 100, above the panic threshold (bearish)
Momentum Indicator: negative (bearish)

The S&P 500 Index Possibly in the “Basement” Phase

The S&P 500 index broke its 6-week Trading Range to the downside in the last week of October. Prices inside the trading range formed a three-peak pattern. This could be the beginning of a “Three Peaks and a Domed House” formation. In speaking of “the Three Peaks and a Domed House” pattern, my version of George Lindsay’s basic model uses a macro or “phase-counting” approach which is different from Lindsay’s original micro approach (which uses “wave-counting” from 1 to 28) in that it divides the “Three Peaks and the Domed House” pattern into five major phases as follows: 1) Three Peaks, 2) Basement, 3) First Floor, 4) Roof, and 5) Plunge.

The current downwave of the S&P 500 index since 10/18/2012 could be a “Separating Decline” from the “Three Peaks” phase to the “Basement” phase. Due to increasing the volatility, the price range of the “Basement” phase could be wide from 1400 down to 1370 for the SPX. Now prices are very close to 1370 inside the speculated “Basement” phase. Typically the Basement phase is known as “the bear trap”.

Chinese Stock Market is Forming a 3-Month Inverted Roof Pattern

The Chinese stock market is forming a 3-month inverted roof pattern. Price trend can be any direction leading to the pattern. If prices are able to break through the upper horizontal resistance at 2150, here could be a potential bottom. If the lower boundary of the pattern gets broken, prices may move down to the previous low near 2000. The outcome is highly influenced by the China’s once-in-a-decade leadership transition this month.

Gold is in the “Run” Phase of a Bump-and-Run Reversal Top Pattern

The gold index has been in an intermediate-term Bump-and-Run Reversal Top pattern since I identified this pattern on gold in my article “How Low Can Gold Go on a Correction?” last August. Currently the gold price is below the “Lead-in Trendline” and it is in the “Run” phase. Last week prices found a support near 1675, and moved higher towards the Lead-in Trendline again.

Gold Possibly in a 6-Month Uptrend Channel

The gold index is possibly forming a 6-month uptrend channel. After it declined from the upper channel line to the lower channel line, it had a bullish reversal last week.

Silver Possibly in a 6-Month Uptrend Channel

The silver index is possibly forming a 6-month uptrend channel. After it declined from the upper channel line to the lower channel line, it had a bullish reversal last week.

Gold/Silver Mining Stocks Broke Down the 4-Month Rising Wedge

Gold/silver mining stocks have broken to the downside from the 4-month Rising Wedge pattern. The downside price target is projected at 172.5 for XAU and 455 for HUI, to form a uptrend channel.

Crude Oil is Forming a 3-Month Falling Wedge

Crude oil is forming a 3-month falling wedge. It could become bullish once it breaks the upper boundary of the wedge.

US Dollar in 15-Month Uptrend Channel

The US dollar index still maintains a 15-month uptrend channel, as long as it stays above the lower support line of the channel.

U.S. Treasury Bond is in a Long-Term Bullish Uptrend

As I discussed on 6/4/2012 about “Is this a Sea-Change Signal from U.S. Treasury Bond Breakout?”, a long-term picture shows that the 30-Year US Treasury Bond had a bullish breakout from the warning line and entered into the bump phase of a possible “Bump-and-Run” formation. In the bump phase, sharp price movement could drive prices reach a bump height with at least twice the height of the lead-in uptrend channel. That means the 30-year U.S. treasury bond could reach to 172 in next several months. Fed’s extension of Operation Twist should support the bullish trend of treasury bonds.

However, the continuation of this sharp bullish trend would be in question with newly announced Fed’s QE3 plan. The data of market performance ranking in last few weeks show that the U.S. treasury bonds, U.S. dollar, and U.S. stock market all became lagging and started to lose their leading positions which they have maintained nearly a year since Fed’s Operation Twist was launched September of last year. We will keep monitoring the bond price against the steep-upward-sloping trendline (the pike line).

Asset Class Performance Ranking with the US Treasury Leading

The following table is the percentage change of each asset class (in ETFs) against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently the US Treasury and gold are outperforming. Crude oil and equity are underperforming.

Sector Performance Ranking with Banks Sector Leading

The following table is the percentage change of sectors and major market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total market, is 2.02% below the EMA89. Outperforming sectors are Banks (-0.04%), Financials (-0.12%), and Consumer Services (-0.37%). Underperforming sectors are Semiconductors (-6.33%), Technology (-6.19%), and Utilities (-4.63%). The S&P 400 Midcap is outperforming and the NASDAQ 100 is underperforming.

BRIC Stock Market Performance Ranking with the Indian Market Leading

The table below is the percentage change of the BRIC stock market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89), also in comparison to the US market. Currently the Indian market is leading.

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