12/4/2011
Table of Contents
- Status of Key Market Parameters
- Broad Stock Market is in a “Symmetrical Triangle” Pattern
- Broad Market Instability Index is below the Panic Threshold
- Gold is Running Out of Time for the “Plunge” Phase
- Gold is Still in a “Bump-and-Run” Pattern
- Silver is Still in the “Run” Phase
- US Dollar is in a “Symmetrical Triangle” Pattern
- 30-Year US Treasury Bond is Forming a Horizontal Channel
- Asset Class Performance Ranking with Oil Leading
- Sector Performance Ranking with Pharmaceuticals Sector Leading
- BRIC Stock Market Performance Ranking with Brazilian Market Leading
Current Status of the LWX (Leading Wave Index)
The LWX Indicator in Last Four Weeks (Past)
The LWX Indicator in Next Four Weeks (Forecast)
Broad Stock Market is Forming a “Symmetrical Triangle” Pattern
The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total equity market, is forming an intermediate-term “Symmetrical Triangle” pattern (see here). The price trend can be any direction leading to this pattern depending on which side to break out. The Wilshire 5000 index is above the 89-day moving average and it is in the choppy zone of the triangle with negative readings of both the trend and momentum. The Leading Wave Index (LWX) indicator, color coded in the price bars of the following daily chart of the Wilshire 5000 index, closed in bullish on Friday. The LWX forecasts a bullish time-window for the next two weeks ended by 12/16/2011.
Broad Market Instability Index is below the Panic Threshold
The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 6 on Friday. This reading is below the panic threshold level of 46, and it indicates that the current market is bullish. The BIX is plotted in the following chart as compared with the Wilshire 5000 index.
Gold is Running Out of Time for the “Plunge” Phase
The gold index is about to run out of time for the “Plunge” phase of the “Three-Peaks and a Domed House” pattern. Tracking the gold index with this pattern is terminated and this is the last update.
Gold is in “Bump-and-Run Reversal Top” Pattern
The gold index is still in an intermediate-term “Bump-and-Run Reversal Top” pattern and it now is in the “Bump” phase. The next target prices: 1) 1570 at the Lead-in Trend Line, and 2) 1400 at the Target Line.
Silver is in the “Run” Phase
The silver index is still in the “Run” phase of the “Bump-and-Run Reversal Top” pattern. The downside price target is project at 24 on the third target line, which is close to the price level when this pattern originally started on the left side of the following chart.
U.S. Dollar is Still in the “Symmetrical Triangle” Pattern
The US dollar index is still in the 11-month “Symmetrical Triangle” pattern (see here).
U.S. Treasury Bond is Forming a Horizontal Channel
The 30-Year US Treasury Bond index is forming a horizontal channel pattern (trading range).
Asset Class Performance Ranking with Oil Leading
The following table is the percentage change of each asset class (in ETFs) against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently Oil and Bond are outperforming. Food and the U.S. dollar are underperforming.
Sector Performance Ranking with Pharmaceuticals Sector Leading
The following table is the percentage change of sectors and major market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total market, is 1.60% above the EMA89. Outperforming sectors are Pharmaceuticals (2.83%), Consumer Services (2.74%), and Energy (2.71%). Underperforming sectors are Banks (-2.86%), Real Estate (-0.77%), and Financials (-0.75%). The Dow Jones Industrial Average (2.85%) is outperforming the market, and the NASDAQ 100 (1.08%) is underperforming.
BRIC Stock Market Performance Ranking with Brazilian Market Leading
The table below is the percentage change of the BRIC stock market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). The Brazilian market is outperforming the US market, and the Chinese, India, and Russian markets are underperforming the US market
.
Comments (0)
Trackbacks (0)
Leave a comment
Trackback
