4/9/2011
Table of Contents
- Status of Key Market Parameter
- Broad Stock Market is Forming a 3-Month Horizontal Channel
- Market Volatility is below the Panic Threshold
- Asset Class Performance Ranking with Oil Leading
- Sector Performance Ranking with Energy Sector Leading
- BRIC Stock Market Performance Ranking with Russian Market Leading
Current Status of the LWX (Leading Wave Index)
The LWX Indicator in Last Four Weeks (Past)
The LWX Indicator in Next Four Weeks (Forecast)
Broad Stock Market Index is Forming a 3-Month Horizontal Channel
The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total equity market, is forming a 3-month horizontal channel with positive readings of both the trend and momentum. Currently the market is above the 89-day moving average and it is in the choppy zone of the horizontal channel. The Leading Wave Index (LWX) indicator, color coded in the price bars of the following daily chart of the Wilshire 5000 index, closed in bullish on Friday. The LWX is in the neutral time-window for next four weeks.
Broad Market Volatility is below the Panic Threshold
The Broad Market Volatility (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 10 on Friday and it is below the panic threshold level of 44. The BIX below the panic threshold indicates that the current market is bullish. The BIX is plotted in the following chart as compared with the Wilshire 5000 index.
Asset Class Performance Ranking with Oil Leading
The following table is the percentage change of each asset class (in ETFs) against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently oil, gold and food are outperforming the stock market. The U.S. dollar and treasury bond are underperforming the stock market.
Sector Performance Ranking with Energy Sector Leading
The following table is the percentage change of sectors and major market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total market, is 3.73% above the EMA89. Outperforming sectors are Energy (+9.13%), Precious Metals (+8.54%), and Basic Materials (+7.07%). Underperforming sectors are Semiconductors (+0.54%), Technology (+0.71%), and Banks (+1.15%). The Russell 2000 Small-cap (+5.69%) is outperforming the market, and the NASDAQ 100 (+2.31%) is underperforming.
BRIC Stock Market Performance Ranking with Russian Market Leading
The table below is the percentage change of the BRIC stock market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). The Russian and Chinese markets are outperforming the U.S. market. Brazilian and India markets are underperforming the U.S. market.
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