3/12/2011
Table of Contents
- Status of Key Market Parameter
- Broad Stock Market Broke to the Downside from 6-Month Rising Wedge
- Market Volatility is above the Panic Threshold
- Asset Class Performance Ranking with Oil Leading
- Sector Performance Ranking with Energy Sector Leading
- BRIC Stock Market Performance Ranking with Russian Market Leading
Current Status of the LWX (Leading Wave Index)
The LWX Indicator in Last Four Weeks (Past)
The LWX Indicator in Next Four Weeks (Forecast)
Broad Stock Market Index Broke to the Downside from the 6-Month Rising Wedge
The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total equity market, broke to the downside from the 6-month Rising Wedge with negative readings of both the trend and momentum. Currently the market is in the downtrend zone for a correction. The Leading Wave Index (LWX) indicator, color coded in the price bars of the following daily chart of the Wilshire 5000 index, closed in bearish on Friday. The LWX is in the neutral time-window for another four weeks.
Broad Market Volatility is above the Panic Threshold
The Broad Market Volatility (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 46 on Friday and it crossed over the panic threshold level of 44. The BIX above the panic threshold indicates that the current market is unstable and bearish. The BIX is plotted in the following chart as compared with the Wilshire 5000 index.
Asset Class Performance Ranking with Oil Leading
The following table is the percentage change of each asset class (in ETFs) against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently oil and food are leading. The U.S. dollar and treasury bond are lagging.
Sector Performance Ranking with Energy Sector Leading
The following table is the percentage change of sectors and major market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total market, is 2.84% above the EMA89. Outperforming sectors are Energy (+6.89%), Real Estate (+3.47%), and Consumer Services (+3.40%). Underperforming sectors are Precious Metals (-1.25%), Semiconductors (-0.08%), and Pharmaceuticals (+0.47%), The S&P 400 Mid-cap (+4.34%) is outperforming the market, and the Nasdaq 100 (+2.15%) is underperforming.
BRIC Stock Market Performance Ranking with Russian Market Leading
The table below is the percentage change of the BRIC stock market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). The Russian and Chinese markets are outperforming the U.S. market. India and Brazilian markets are underperforming the U.S. market.
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