2/20/2011
Table of Contents
- Status of Key Market Parameter
- Broad Stock Market Moved above the 5-Month Rising Wedge
- Market Volatility is below the Panic Threshold
- Sector Ranking with Energy Sector Leading
- BRIC Stock Market Performance
Current Status of the LWX (Leading Wave Index)
The LWX Indicator in Last Four Weeks (Past)
The LWX Indicator in Next Four Weeks (Forecast)
Broad Stock Market Index Swings above the 5-Month Rising Wedge
The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total equity market, moved slightly above the 5-month Rising Wedge with positive readings of both the trend and momentum indicators last week. The Leading Wave Index (LWX) indicator, color coded in the price bars of the following daily chart of the Wilshire 5000 index, was bullish last week. Based on the forecast of the LWX indicator, the market is in a neutral time-window that could last another two weeks until higher market volatility is released.
Broad Market Volatility is below the Panic Threshold
The Broad Market Volatility (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, closed at 3 on Friday and it is below the panic threshold level of 44. The volatility level of 3 is very low, and it indicates that the current market is bullish. The BIX is plotted in the following chart as compared with the Wilshire 5000 index.
Sector Ranking with Energy Sector Leading
The following table is the percentage change of sectors and major market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total market, is 7.65% above the EMA89. Outperforming sectors are Energy (+14.14%), Semiconductors (+10.79), and Internet (+8.47%). Underperforming sectors are Pharmaceuticals (+0.66%), biotech (+1.25%), and Utilities (+1.71%), The S&P 400 Mid-cap (+9.54%) is outperforming the market, and the DJ-30 (+6.87%) is underperforming.
BRIC Stock Market Performances
The table below is the percentage change of the BRIC stock market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). All four emerging markets are currently underperforming the US market. Be aware of “climate change” of international stock markets.
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