Latest Market Update

 

U.S. Dollar Breakout

 

Sunday, August 12, 2018

 

The U.S. dollar broke above a 3-month rising wedge chart pattern last week, and advanced sharply to its 13-month high. The dollar is very bullish to start its second upward leg with a price target projected at 97.4. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond index is forming a 6-month inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, and is near a completion of the right shoulder. If the bond price breaks above the neckline of this pattern, the market reaction would turn bullish for the treasury bond but bearish for stocks. The general stock market is still choppy and has a significant internal divergence between the NASDAQ and NYSE indices. For last six months, the NASDAQ index has been in a uptrend to all time highs while the NYSE index has been in a horizontal choppy market going nowhere. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 8/28/2018.

 

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Divergence between U.S. and Chinese Stocks

 

Sunday, August 5, 2018

 

The general stock market continued to experience choppy trading last week. The stock performance divergence between the US market and the Chinese market has widened as the US-China trade conflict escalates. At the close of last Friday, the S&P 500 index was just about 1% below the all time high while the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index plunged to two-year low. It seems that the threat of a trade war so far has no significant impact on U.S. stock market but is hurting the benchmark index in China. Currently the Shanghai Composite is fast approaching a critical support level at 2700. Breaking below this level would trigger further sell-off on Chinese stocks, please be extra cautious. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 8/10/2018.

 

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Stocks Turned Choppy

 

Sunday, July 29, 2018

 

The general stock market turned choppy and trendless last week as readings of our Broad Market Instability index increased. After the price reached the upper boundary of a 4-month uptrend channel, the S&P 500 index pulled back sharply on Friday. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 8/10/2018.

 

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The Stock Market Lost Momentum

 

Sunday, July 22, 2018

 

The general stock market was flat last week. The S&P 500 index lost momentum with a price setback, and it is likely to retest the key level near 2795 this coming week. Gold bounced off the lower boundary of its mid-term bearish downtrend channel as the US dollar pulled back from 8-month highs. Crude oil still stays in the 1-year bullish uptrend channel. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 8/10/2018.

 

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S&P 500 Challenges Key Resistance

 

Sunday, July 15, 2018

 

The S&P 500 index is testing the upper resistance near 2795. A successful break above this resistance could push the price toward a record high. The Indian stock market hit an all-time high while the Chinese stock struggled to bounce off a two-year low last week. It seems that global stock markets are in a mode of buying winners and selling losers. Crude oil is in a consolidation but the price still stay inside a 1-year uptrend channel. Gold is bearish with a mid-tern downtrend channel. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 7/23/2018.

 

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Stocks Seen Rebounding

 

Sunday, July 8, 2018

 

As the US-China trade war started to take effect, the general stock market held very well last week except the Chinese market had an extended sell-off. The S&P 500 index is forming a mid-term bullish ascending triangle pattern confined between a uptrend line and an upper horizontal resistance level at 2795. The Chinese stock market has become oversold, and a dead-cat bounce is likely to be the next. Crude oil and the US dollar are in consolidation after their recent strong advances while gold is bearish in a mid-term downtrend. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 7/23/2018.

 

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Strong Crude Oil and US Dollar

 

Sunday, July 1, 2018

 

The Chinese stock market is sinking in a bear market territory and global stocks are weakening as US-China trade war threat is bringing anxiety. The S&P 500 index is in a short-term corrective wave. Crude oil and the US dollar are bullish while gold and silver are bearish. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 7/9/2018.

 

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Trade War Fears Cast Shadow Over Global Stocks

 

Sunday, June 24, 2018

 

Global stocks slid on U.S.-China trade war fears last week. The Chinese stock market decisively broke below a major support level, and plunged to two-year lows. The US stock market was choppy as the S&P 500 index appeared in a transition process from its 3-month upward wave to a short-term corrective wave. The crude oil still maintained a 1-year bullish uptrend trend. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 7/9/2018.

 

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Stock Market Lost Upside Momentum

 

Sunday, June 17, 2018

 

The stock market lost upside momentum after the Fed raised interest rate last week. The US dollar resumed its advance sharply while gold and silver had a huge drop. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index is at a critical point to break down as its price is breaching a long-term support level at 3050. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 6/20/2018, followed by a bearish time-window right after.

 

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Strong Stocks Ahead of Fed Meeting

 

Sunday, June 10, 2018

 

The stock market advanced higher last week ahead of the Fed meeting. The S&P 500 index had a bullish breakout from its 3-week sideways trading, while the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 made new highs. The general stock market maintains a 2.5-year bullish uptrend channel, and now is in the early part of a new intermediate upward wave. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 6/20/2018.

 

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Mixed Stock Market Action

 

Sunday, June 3, 2018

 

The general stock market was choppy last week. Although the blue chip stocks were weak, the small-cap and technology stocks were strong, especially semiconductor and internet sectors outperformed the market. The S&P 500 index is still at the early stage of its intermediate upward wave after its 3-month correction. Crude oil prices pulled back sharply but still in a 2-year bullish uptrend channel. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 6/12/2018.

 

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Stocks were Trading Flat

 

Sunday, May 27, 2018

 

The stock market has been flat for three weeks and the momentum has weakened. The S&P 500 index is at the early stage of its intermediate upward wave but a short-term consolidation is expected. While the US dollar advanced further, the 30-year U.S. treasury bond and gold rebounded last week after hit fresh 2018 lows. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 6/13/2018.

 

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Bullish Stocks and Bearish Gold & Bonds

 

Sunday, May 20, 2018

 

Gold had a bearish downward breakout from a mid-term trading range last week as the US dollar extended its advance. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond also broke down from its mid-term broadening triangle pattern. The S&P 500 index is at the early stage of its intermediate upward wave with a projected price target at 2930. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 5/24/2018.

 

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Intermediate Upward Wave of Stocks Starting

 

Sunday, May 13, 2018

 

The stock market strengthened as the S&P 500 index broke above the upper boundary of its 3-month descending triangle pattern last week. Our Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the SPX is starting upward intermediate wave 5, and the upside price target is projected at 2930. The US dollar is in a short-term consolidation after reached our upside price target 92.25. Gold is still in its mid-term horizontal trading range waiting for a breakout. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 5/24/2018.

 

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Stocks Showed a Sign of Strength

 

Sunday, May 6, 2018

 

The stock market showed strength last week as the S&P 500 index held well above the support level of 2850. If the SPX breaks above the upper boundary of the 3-month descending triangle pattern, it would confirm the beginning of the intermediate upward fifth-wave with a price target projected at 2930. The US dollar reached our short-term price target of 92.25 last week, and a consolidation is expected next. Gold is still in its mid-term horizontal trading range waiting for a breakout. The 30-year US treasury bond shows a sign of a short-term bottom process but a volatile price movement. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 5/9/2018, followed by a bullish time-window right after.

 

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US Dollar Bottoming Out

 

Sunday, April 29, 2018

 

The US dollar became bullish after its price broke above a 3-month horizontal trading range last week. This is a sign of bottoming out on the US dollar. Gold is still in its mid-term horizontal trading range waiting for a breakout. The 30-Year US treasury bond has been bearish with volatile price movement. The price of the S&P 500 index is confined in a 3-month descending triangle pattern as the range of the confinement is getting narrow and narrow. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 5/9/2018.

 

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Weakening Stocks and Bearish Bonds

 

Sunday, April 22, 2018

 

The S&P 500 index made another lower high last week after it retreated from the upper resistance of its 3-month downtrend line. A short-term descending triangle pattern on the SPX suggests that the price possibly move lower to retest the lower horizontal boundary of the triangle pattern. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index is at the edge of a breaking down as the price is retesting its mid-term support level near 3100. The 30-Year US treasury bond broke below its 2-month uptrend line and it likely is a set up of a bearish measure move down pattern to have the second down leg. The US dollar and gold are still in their short-term horizontal trading ranges waiting for breakouts. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 4/25/2018 followed by a bearish time-window right after.

 

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Upward Stock Market with Weak Momentum

 

Sunday, April 15, 2018

 

The S&P 500 index bounced back last week after defended the key level of 2580. The price movement is confined in a 2.5-month descending triangle pattern between a negative slope line of lower highs and a horizontal support line. The current upward move will be soon to face a resistance at the upper boundary of triangle. The 30-Year US treasury bond is in a 2-month uptrend channel. The US dollar and gold are still in their short-term horizontal trading ranges waiting for breakouts. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 4/20/2018.

 

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Choppy Markets

 

Sunday, April 8, 2018

 

The stock market was choppy last week in the shadow of rising US-China Trade Tensions. The S&P 500 index struggled to defend the level of 2580 which is the lower horizontal boundary of a 2-month descending triangle pattern. Also the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index was traded right above a long-term support level 3100. The 30-Year US treasury bond is forming a 2-month uptrend channel. The US dollar and gold are still in their short-term horizontal trading ranges waiting for breakouts. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 4/20/2018.

 

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Stocks Hold above a Key Support

 

Sunday, April 1, 2018

 

The general stock market still hold above the lower boundary of its 27-month long-term uptrend channel after it had a volatile movement last week. The S&P 500 index is forming a short-term descending triangle pattern with a lower horizontal boundary at the level of 2590 for a support. Crude oil lost upward momentum and pulled back from the upper resistance at 66.5. The 30-Year US treasury bond became short-term bullish as it broke upward from its 2-month horizontal trading range last week. The US dollar and gold are still in their short-term horizontal trading ranges waiting for breakouts either upward or downward. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 4/23/2018.

 

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Volatile Market

 

Sunday, March 25, 2018

 

The market volatility jumped as Fed rate hike hit markets last week. The S&P 500 index had a downward breakout from a 6-week ascending triangle pattern, and it became critical to test if the market is able to hold 27-month long-term uptrend. The price of crude oil broke out upward from its short-term symmetrical triangle pattern and advanced sharply. The 30-Year US treasury bond, US dollar and gold all are still in their short-term horizontal trading ranges waiting for next breakouts either upward or downward. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 4/2/2018.

 

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Markets Wait on Fed Meeting

 

Sunday, March 18, 2018

 

The price movements in financial markets are bounded in either consolidative patterns or trading ranges ahead of Fed meeting. The S&P 500 index pulled back from the upper resistance level of 2790 last week, and formed a 6-week ascending triangle pattern that suggests the stock market under accumulation. The 30-Year US treasury bond, US dollar and gold all are in their short-term horizontal trading ranges waiting for next breakouts either upward or downward. The crude oil formed a short-term symmetrical triangle pattern on the verge of a breakout too. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 3/26/2018.

 

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Stock Market Uptrend Resuming

 

Sunday, March 11, 2018

 

The S&P 500 index had a powerful upward breakout from its 6-week symmetrical triangle pattern last Friday as a suggestion that the current intermediate-term correction has ended and the uptrend is resuming. The Semiconductors, Technology, and Internet were leading sectors of the rally last week. Both the US dollar and gold are in their short-term horizontal trading ranges waiting for next breakouts while the 30-Year US treasury bond stays in its bearish downtrend channel. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 3/26/2018.

 

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Stock Market is Still in a Correction Phase

 

Sunday, March 4, 2018

 

The intermediate-term correction of the stock market continues with a possible A-B-C corrective wave sequence, and downward wave C started last week. The S&P 500 index is forming a 7-week symmetrical triangle pattern that presents psychological energy coiling up like a spring to set up for next breakout. A sharp movement could follow once the price breaches either boundary of the triangle pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 3/21/2018.

 

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Stocks Ended a Choppy Week with Slight Gain

 

Sunday, February 25, 2018

 

The stock market was in a horizontal trading range as the volatility went lower last week. The S&P 500 index is still in a 27-month long-term bullish uptrend channel but its mid-term corrective wave is not completely over. Both the US dollar and gold are in their short-term horizontal trading range waiting for next breakouts while the 30-Year US treasury bond stays in its bearish downtrend channel. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 3/5/2018.

 

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Stock Market in a Short-Term Bullish Time-Window

 

Sunday, February 18, 2018

 

Last week the stock market bounced back after a sharp decline, and readings of our Broad Market Instability index reduced below the panic threshold level. Technical analysis suggests that the S&P 500 index is in a short-term upward sub-wave which is a part of the intermediate corrective forth-wave. The 30-Year US treasury bond is in a bearish 2-month downtrend channel. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 3/5/2018.

 

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Global Markets Entered Correction Territory

 

Sunday, February 11, 2018

 

The stock market sharply slid into a correction last week with a surge of our Broad Market Instability index far above the panic threshold to a level of 445 which has not been seen for two years. Led by the German market, global stock markets almost everywhere declined around 10% below their recent highs. Technical analysis suggests that the S&P 500 index is in intermediate corrective wave 4 with the first downward sub-wave, but the long-term picture is still in a bullish market. The U.S. dollar just had a bullish reversal from a bump-and-run reversal bottom pattern while crude oil index became bearish with a reversal from a bump-and-run top pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 2/14/2018.

 

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Stock Market on Alert for Correction

 

Sunday, February 4, 2018

 

The broad stock market had the biggest weekly drop in more than 2 years last week while readings of our Broad Market Instability index surged above the panic threshold. The Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the S&P 500 index just started an intermediate corrective wave but the long-term primary wave is still in a bullish uptrend. The US dollar likely forms a Bump-and-Run Reversal Bottom pattern that is setting up for a potential buy opportunity for the dollar. Crude oil index remains in a 5-month bullish uptrend channel. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 2/14/2018.

 

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Fast Run-Up in Stock Market

 

Sunday, January 28, 2018

 

Rapid rise of the S&P 500 index with a steep slope drives price further away from a 2-year uptrend line. It is most likely that prices will reach 3000, at least twice of the lead-in uptrend-channel high for forming a potential Bump and Run Top pattern. The Chinese stock market broke above the upper boundary of a 2-year rising wedge pattern last week, and it is bullish with an upside price target at 3900. The price of gold rapidly reached a short-term upside price target 1355 while the US dollar index fell through the downside price target 89.5. Crude oil extended gain in a 5-month bullish uptrend channel. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 1/30/2018.

 

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Market Momentum Dried Up

 

Sunday, January 21, 2018

 

The stock market posted another weekly gain at record highs, but the momentum dried up. As the S&P 500 index moves further away from its 2-year lead-in trend line, fast price rising pushes the index into the bump phase of a potential Bump and Run Reversal Top pattern. Based on a recent breakdown from a 3-month descending broadening wedge pattern, the U.S. dollar is bearish with a downside price target projected at 89.5 while gold is bullish for an upside price target at 1355. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond index is forming a short-term falling wedge pattern narrow down into an apex for a possible breakout soon. The market reaction on the US government shutdown drama will give a clue on market direction. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 2/13/2018.

 

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Be Cautious about the Fast-Rising Stock Market

 

Sunday, January 14, 2018

 

The U.S. stock market extended its New Year’s win streak with record closes last week. The S&P 500 index broke above the upper channel line of a 2-year bullish uptrend channel. As excessive speculation kicks in, fast price rising above the upper channel line sends a warning sign for entering the bump phase of a potential Bump and Run Reversal Top pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 1/19/2018.

 

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Strong New Year Start

 

Sunday, January 7, 2018

 

The stock market advanced to record highs with a strong start in the first week of the new year. A Santa Claus rally finally caught up last week. The S&P index is in a 2-year bullish uptrend channel pattern. Prices are going to test the upper boundary of the channel, and a mid-term corrective wave would start if prices pull back there. The US dollar reached the downside price target 91.5, and a bounce is near. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 1/12/2018.

 

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Missing Santa Claus Rally

 

Sunday, December 31, 2017

 

The stock market has moved sideways for two weeks without a Santa Clause rally but it slid on the final trading day of 2017. The S&P 500 index is still in a long-term uptrend with the fifth primary upward wave and it nears a beginning of a mid-term corrective wave. The crude oil resumed its uptrend from a several-week-long consolidation. Gold has become bullish after prices broke above a 4-month downtrend line. The US dollar is bearish with a downward breakout from a descending triangle pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 1/17/2018.

 

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Choppy Market Heading Year-End

 

Sunday, December 24, 2017

 

The general stock market was flat with very low volatility but weakening momentum last week. Technical analysis suggests that the S&P 500 index approaches the end of its most powerful 18-month-long intermediate upward wave and will face a correction before next intermediate upward wave. The 30-year US treasury bond became very bearish as its prices broke downward from a 2-month rising wedge pattern. Gold is going to test an upper resistance for a potential breakout to the upside of a 4-month falling wedge pattern. Crude oil is still bullish with its 4-month uptrend channel. The broad stock market is most likely to continue being choppy through the end of the year, and is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 1/3/2018.

 

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Tech and Small-Cap Stocks Regaining Momentum

 

Sunday, December 17, 2017

 

The general stock market closed higher last Friday after it was in a choppy market in a week. The technology sector and the Russell 2000 Small Cap index started regaining momentum to the upside from their recent sharp pullback. The major stock market indexes still behave out of sync with each other. It looks like that tech stocks and small-cap stocks are setting up for a potential rally as “January Effect” but it may cost a pullback from the Dow and S&P 500. The overall market would turn out to be a choppy mode heading into the end of the year. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 1/8/2018.

 

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Markets Out of Sync

 

Sunday, December 10, 2017

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 made another all-time closing high on Friday. But the technology sector has been moving out of sync with either the Dow or S&P 500 since mid-November. The Russell 2000 Small Cap index, one of the reliable “risk-on” indicators, became lagging the market. The general stock market currently seems hard to be measured by a single market index on the overall market, and could be in store for a choppy market heading into the end of the year. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 12/13/2017, then in a bearish time-window right after.

 

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Climbing Stock Market with Weakness in Tech Stocks

 

Sunday, December 3, 2017

 

The general stock market exploded to record highs last week except the technology sector. There was a significant sector rotation from semiconductor stocks to bank stocks. Crude oil maintained staying above a 2-month uptrend line for its bullish course towards an updated price target 62. Silver was bearish as its prices broke below the horizontal support at 16.6 of a 3-week descending triangle pattern. Fueled by the news of that Senate passes their versions on the GOP tax bill, the stock market is likely to extend gains this coming week. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 12/7/2017.

 

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Upside Breakout from Sideways Range

 

Sunday, November 26, 2017

 

The general stock market resumed uptrend last week after it had a sideways market for several weeks. Crude oil is forming a potential bump-and-run top pattern with a current status in the bullish bump phase with fast rising prices following a sharp bump trendline until prices reach a bump height projected at 60. Gold still held above its 1-year uptrend line as the US dollar became bearish after its prices broke below a 2-month uptrend channel. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 12/7/2017.

 

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Extended Sideways in Stock Markets

 

Sunday, November 19, 2017

 

The general stock market continued its sideways move into another week. As the US dollar broke below a 2-month uptrend line, gold held very well above an 11-month uptrend line and silver had a bullish breakout from a 2.5-month descending triangle pattern last Friday. It is very bullish for crude oil to keep up its price above a 4.5-month uptrend channel with a projected price target at 60. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 11/27/2017.

 

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Sideways Markets

 

Sunday, November 12, 2017

 

The stock market moved sideways last week as the market momentum stayed in the negative territory. The US dollar, treasury bound, gold and silver were all weakening except crude oil. Gold is critical to see if its prices can hold above the 1270 level to maintain above the 11-month uptrend line. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 11/27/2017.

 

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Divergence in Stock Markets

 

Sunday, November 5, 2017

 

There is a significant market divergence between moving up in prices of major market indexes and surging in readings of our Broad Market Instability Index (BIX) above the panic threshold last week. Prices of the US treasury bond and gold likely try to rebound again. The crude oil is bullish for an upside price target projected at 59.8. The broad stock market is expected to be sideways this week and projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 11/13/2017.

 

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Bullish Pattern Breakouts of US Dollar and Oil Prices

 

Sunday, October 29, 2017

 

The US dollar had a powerful bullish breakout from a 3-month inverse head-and-shoulders pattern last week and added pressure on gold and silver. Crude oil prices also had a strong advance after a bullish breakout from its 9-month inverse roof pattern. There is a red flag for the stock market as readings of our Broad Market Instability Index (BIX) surged to the panic threshold last Friday. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 11/1/2017.

 

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The US Dollar is Near a Key Level for Trend Changing

 

Sunday, October 22, 2017

 

The major stock indices extend further into record territory last week besides the declining market momentum. Gold, silver, and the US treasury bonds failed to continue their rebound. The indices of the US dollar and crude oil are about to test their upper resistance levels for potential bullish breakouts. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 11/1/2017.

 

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Prices of Gold and Treasury Bond Rebound

 

Sunday, October 15, 2017

 

Readings of our Broad Market Instability Index (BIX) started rising and the stock market momentum remained low last week. Prices of gold and the US treasury bonds resumed their upward moves. Crude oil formed a partial decline which is a bullish sign for a potential breakout from the upper resistance near 52. The broad stock market is expected to have a short-term pullback, and is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 10/27/2017.

 

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The Stock Market in Overbought Condition

 

Sunday, October 8, 2017

 

The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 extend further into record territory last week. The stock market is in a short-term overbought condition with an alert of dramatically reducing market momentum last Friday. Gold and precious metals stocks formed bullish reversal candlestick patterns for a potential rebound while crude oil pulled back sharply for lower prices. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 10/25/2017.

 

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Rising Market Optimism for Tax-Cut Hopes

 

Sunday, October 1, 2017

 

Much influenced by the Trump tax-cut plan last week, market sentiment again reached an extreme greed level of optimism but somehow it contradicted the prospect of our wave analysis for the market. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index continued leading the stock market higher. Prices of gold and the US treasury bonds were under selling pressure. The US dollar bounced off its 32-month low and approached a critical point to test its 7-month downtrend line. An upward breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern turned crude oil bullish for higher prices. The broad stock market is expected to be generally rangebound this coming week, and it is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 10/20/2017.

 

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Divergent Market Calls for a Higher Level of Caution

 

Sunday, September 24, 2017

 

Last week small-cap stocks did better than the rest of the market, and the Russell 2000 Index closed at record high with the biggest weekly gain. However, the NASDAQ 100 Index kept sliding last week, and the technology sector was dragged down by a poor performance in Apple stock. Wave analysis suggests that the market is going through a transition period from bullish to bearish. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 10/16/2017.

 

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Be Cautious in this Market

 

Sunday, September 17, 2017

 

The Dow and S&P 500 closed at record high last week while investor sentiment reached an extreme greed level of optimism. The market focus will turn to Federal Reserve’s “biggest meeting of the year” for its policy setting this coming week. As US inflation hits seven-month high, the central bank is expected to rise interest rates and start trimming its $4.5 trillion portfolio. Stocks and other risky assets could come under selling pressure amid Fed’s asset unwinding. Technical analysis suggests that the short-term time-window of the broad stock market is about to turn from bullish to bearish. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 10/5/2017.

 

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Market Volatility Needs to be Watched Closely

 

Sunday, September 10, 2017

 

Readings of the Broad Market Instability Index (BIX) went up again last week but the index is still below the panic threshold level. The Wilshire 5000 index is above the 89-day exponential moving average, and the momentum is positive. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 9/12/2017.

 

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The Stock Market Bounced Back Toward Records

 

Sunday, September 3, 2017

 

The general stock market regained momentum towards the upside and the market volatility reduced back to a normal level last week. Biotech, Precious Metals, and Internet were the top outperforming sectors. Gold is in a bullish move with breaking above 1300 which is the upper resistance level of a 6-month horizontal channel. Silver is also in a powerful advance from a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 9/14/2017.

 

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Stock Market Bounced from an Oversold Condition

 

Saturday, August 26, 2017

 

Last week the general stock market bounced from a short-term oversold condition. The Russell 2000 was leading the rebound while the Dow was lagging. Readings of our Broad Market Instability Index retreated below the panic threshold, and the market momentum returned to the positive territory. Prices of gold faces a resistance from the upper boundary of its 6-month horizontal trading range, and prices of crude oil look for a support at the lower boundary of a 2-month ascending broadening wedge. The broad stock market is turning from neutral to bullish, and is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 9/7/2017.

 

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Market Volatility Surged to 9-Month Highs

 

Sunday, August 13, 2017

 

The volatility came back to the market last week, and readings of our Broad Market Instability Index surged to 100 which is the highest level after the last November presidential election. The stock market is having mild consolidation right below record highs. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 8/16/2017.

 

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Short-Term Oversold Market

 

Sunday, August 20, 2017

 

The Wilshire 5000 index, an average or a benchmark of the total market, has crossed below its 89-day exponential moving average first time since the last November presidential election. Readings of our Broad Market Instability Index continued surging to 116 last week, and the stock market traded in oversold territory. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 8/25/2017.

 

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Market Volatility Surged to 9-Month Highs

 

Sunday, August 13, 2017

 

The volatility came back to the market last week, and readings of our Broad Market Instability Index surged to 100 which is the highest level after the last November presidential election. The stock market is having mild consolidation right below record highs. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 8/16/2017.

 

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Divergent Market

 

Sunday, August 6, 2017

 

Last market update noted that we have a divergent market with strong large capital stocks and weak small capital stocks as the US dollar dipped. The market divergence intensified during last week when the dollar hit a 15-month low. The Dow blue chip stocks climbed ever higher while the Russell 2000 small capital stocks declined sharply. However, last Friday the dollar had biggest one-day gain so far this year on strong US jobs data. This huge rebound makes a potential bullish reversal for the dollar and a possible transition of strength from the large cap stocks to small cap stocks. Readings of the Broad Market Instability Index has surged to 50s which is above the panic threshold. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 8/14/2017.

 

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Watch Out For Market Volatility Flickering Back

 

Sunday, July 30, 2017

 

The short-term time-window of the general stock market turned from bullish to bearish last week. Readings of the Broad Market Instability index started increasing and market volatility rebounded from historic lows. We have a divergent market with strong large capital stocks and weak small capital stocks as the US dollar dipped to near 13-month lows. The wave pattern forecast suggests mild consolidation ahead for the general stock market. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 8/14/2017.

 

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Time to Turn Cautious on the Markets

 

Sunday, July 23, 2017

 

The stock market stalled as the Dow and S&P 500 made record high last week. The wave pattern forecast for the general stock market suggests an inflection point during this week and mild consolidation ahead. The US dollar traded near lowest levels in more than a year, and prices may form a dip soon for a profit opportunity from the long side. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until midweek 7/26/2017, and in a bearish time-window right after.

 

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Dow and S&P 500 Closed at Record High

 

Sunday, July 16, 2017

 

The broad stock market broke upward from its 5-week horizontal trading range as the Dow and S&P 500 closed at record high last Friday. Most outperforming sectors are Home Construction, Internet, and Biotech while most underperforming sectors are Telecommunication, Oil Equipment, and Precious Metals. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 7/26/2017.

 

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The US Dollar Might be Due for a Rebound

 

Sunday, July 9, 2017

 

Last week the 30-year U.S. treasury bond, gold, and silver broke sharply downward corresponding to their technical patterns while the U.S. dollar was waiting for a rebound. Crude oil failed to continue its 2-week-long rally, and formed a bearish partial rising. The general stock market still traded in a narrow horizontal trading range as Home Construction, Banks, and Biotech sectors outperformed. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 7/24/2017.

 

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The General Stock Market in a Narrow Trading Range

 

Sunday, July 2, 2017

 

Crude oil had a nice bounce last week while gold and silver still waited for rebound. The Wilshire 5000 index has been in a narrow horizontal trading range for a month. Our Broad Market Instability Index remained low corresponding to a choppy stock market but low volatility. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 7/7/2017.

 

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Stocks: Negative Momentum But Low Volatility

 

Sunday, June 25, 2017

 

Although the stock market momentum was negative, our Broad Market Instability Index remained below the panic threshold corresponding to a choppy market but low volatility. Crude oil, gold, and silver are due for a bounce from their recent lows. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 6/27/2017.

 

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Stocks Momentum Weakening

 

Sunday, June 18, 2017

 

Our Broad Market Instability Index started to jump up last week, and the momentum of the stock market weakened. Crude oil, gold, and silver slid down further last week, and they are expected to bounce possibly around the middle of this week. The 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond breached the upper boundary of its inverted roof pattern which may have a tricky move in the price. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 6/27/2017.

 

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Alert from a Big Dow-Nasdaq Divergence

 

Sunday, June 11, 2017

 

It is a warning sign for the stock market that the technology sector plunged last Friday as the mega-cap “FAANG” stocks Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google led the selloff. The Nasdaq 100 Index declined 2.44% while the Dow surged 0.42% to a record high, that marks one of the biggest daily divergences between the two key indexes since the general election last November. Gold and silver also formed bearish partial ring patterns last week. The Fed meeting next week is expected to raise interest rates. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 6/27/2017.

 

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Stocks Bullish ahead of UK Election

 

Sunday, June 4, 2017

 

The S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq post record close last week. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 6/8/2017 which is coincident with the date of the UK general election this year. The outcome of the election would impact the market volatility.

 

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A Short Bullish Time-Window

 

Sunday, May 28, 2017

 

The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 6/8/2017. However this market may have a reversal early any time from now.

 

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Volatility Jumped Up

 

Sunday, May 21, 2017

 

The stock market became volatile last week. Crude oil and gold rebound sharply as the US dollar had a bearish breakdown from its 6-month falling wedge pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 5/25/2017.

 

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Watch for Volatility

 

Sunday, May 14, 2017

 

Readings of our Broad Market Instability Index danced around the panic threshold, and the stock market momentum stayed in the negative territory last week. Crude oil, gold, and the US dollar started to rebound. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 5/25/2017.

 

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Prepare for Rising Volatility

 

Sunday, May 7, 2017

 

As the general stock market stayed on the high of a short-term cycle, readings of our Broad Market Instability Index crossed over the panic threshold once last week. This is a warning sign for increasing market volatility. Crude oil, gold, and silver are near a rebound. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 5/25/2017.

 

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NASDAQ Leading

 

Sunday, April 30, 2017

 

The stock market was strong last week especially for wireless communication, internet, and technology sectors. The NASDAQ Composite Index hit a new record high while the Dow and S&P 500 lagged behind. Readings of our Broad Market Instability Index rose to double digits, and the momentum of the general stock market got weak. The hammered down US dollar, gold, silver, and crude oil near a rebound. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 5/5/2017.

 

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