Latest Market Update

 

A Big Bounce from New 2022 Low

 

Sunday, June 26, 2022

 

Stocks bounced back last week, and the S&P 500 index rose 7% sharply from its new low of this year. The market volatility calmed down a lot as readings of our Broad Market Instability index dropped below the panic threshold. Energy, Pharmaceuticals, and Consumer Goods are ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 7/12/2022.

 

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Stocks Made a New Low of this Year

 

Monday, June 20, 2022

 

The stock market tumbled last week, and made a new low for this year. The market was very volatile as readings of our Broad Market Instability index surged up to 500 mark. The S&P 500 index is very bearish in a confluence of both mid-term downward wave 3 and short-term downward wave 3. Internet, Home Construction, and Semiconductors are ranked as the three worst sectors with mostly weak technical strengths. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 6/28/2022.

 

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Stocks Resumed Decline

 

Sunday, June 12, 2022

 

The bear market rally for stocks ended last week, and price decline was resumed. Internet, Consumer Services, and Technology are ranked as the three worst sectors with mostly weak technical strengths. Currently both mid-term and short-term for the S&P 500 index have downward wave 3 which is the most dangerous case to the downside. The S&P 500 index is going to test a support level at 3900 this week. If the price breaks below this level, the S&P 500 index would have an immediate downside price target projected at 3700. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 6/28/2022.

 

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Bear Market Rally Stalls

 

Sunday, June 5, 2022

 

The stock market was flat last week. Energy, Oil Equipment, and Utilities are ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The S&P 500 index may have difficulty to reach 4300 for this bear market rally. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 6/13/2022.

 

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Stocks Bounced Off a Short-Term Bottom

 

Monday, May 30, 2022

 

The stock market rebounded last week. The S&P 500 index formed “W”-shape pattern and turned short-term bullish after the price broke above the neckline of a double bottom. However, it could be just a bear market rally. Oil Equipment, Energy, and Utilities are ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 6/13/2022.

 

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Stocks Look to Rebound

 

Sunday, May 22, 2022

 

The stock market continued to decline and it was still volatile last week. The S&P 500 index has lost over 18% from its all time high. We are in a bear market with a pattern of lower-highs and lower-lows. Stocks perform poorly even when they are in a bullish short-term cycle. We look for a short-term rebound to break a 7-week downtrend channel. Energy, Oil Equipment, and Utilities are ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 6/2/2022.

 

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US Dollar Rocketed

 

Sunday, May 15, 2022

 

The US dollar extended rally to 20-year highs while gold and silver tumbled. The stock market was on a roller coaster ride for another week. Readings of our Broad Market Instability index surged up above 500 mark in the middle week, but dropped below the panic threshold level on Friday. A short-term rebound was starting for stocks. Energy, Oil Equipment, and Consumer Goods are ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 6/2/2022.

 

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Stock Market Roller Coaster

 

Sunday, May 8, 2022

 

The stock market was on a roller coaster ride last week. The market was very volatile as readings of our Broad Market Instability index stayed far above the panic threshold. Based on Elliott wave analysis, the S&P 500 index is in the late part of the first short-term downward wave inside the third intermediate downward wave. A short-term rebound wave will be the next. Energy, Oil Equipment, and Consumer Goods are ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 6/1/2022.

 

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Big Moves in Stocks and US Dollar

 

Sunday, May 1, 2022

 

The stock market tumbled last week. The S&P 500 index is in the third intermediate downward wave based on Elliott wave analysis. This wave typically has a significant move in terms of the price range. The US dollar advanced sharply last week. Energy, Oil Equipment, and Consumer Goods ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 5/3/2022.

 

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Stocks Tumble

 

Sunday, April 24, 2022

 

The stock market closed sharply lower while the US dollar extended its rally last week. Energy, Oil Equipment, and Consumer Goods ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. Gold, silver, and crude oil currently are neutral before their next breakouts. The stock market reaches the trough of a short-term cycle. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 4/28/2022.

 

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Weakening Stocks and 30-Year Treasury Bond

 

Sunday, April 17, 2022

 

The stock market and 30-year U.S. treasury bond drifted lower with weakening momentum and rising volatility last week. The US dollar, gold, silver, and crude oil were bullish following their technical upside breakouts. Currently Oil Equipment, Energy, and Precious Metals ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 4/21/2022.

 

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Bearish Outlook on Stocks

 

Sunday, April 10, 2022

 

The stock market was weakening with increasing volatility last week. The S&P 500 index just ended intermediate upward wave (2) and started intermediate downward wave (3) which it is likely to have a significant move. Currently Energy, Oil Equipment, and Precious Metals ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The US dollar is bullish with a breakout from a 5-week descending triangle pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 4/20/2022.

 

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Stock Rebound Nears End

 

Sunday, April 3, 2022

 

Last week the stock market started to pull back after the recent rebound. The S&P 500 index is going to test its 89-day exponential moving average again, and intermediate downward wave (3) will be the next. Currently Oil Equipment, Energy, and Precious Metals ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 4/20/2022.

 

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Flat Market

 

Sunday, March 27, 2022

 

The stock market slightly drifted up last week. Energy, Oil Equipment, and Precious Metals ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The S&P 500 index currently is above its 89-day exponential moving average, and it is close to the late part of the current upward wave. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 3/30/2022.

 

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Stocks Rebounded

 

Sunday, March 20, 2022

 

The stock market rebounded sharply last week. The S&P 500 index currently is right below its 89-day exponential moving average, and it in an upward wave which could be counted as the second wave of a corrective 5-wave sequence. Energy, Oil Equipment, and Precious Metals ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The US dollar and crude oil are neutral. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 3/30/2022.

 

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Volatile Week for All Markets

 

Sunday, March 13, 2022

 

It was a volatile week for stocks, crude oil, US treasury bonds, US dollar, gold and silver. Both crude oil and the US dollar have reached our short-term price targets. Oil Equipment, Energy, and Precious Metals ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The S&P 500 index is close to the late part of the first intermediate downward wave. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 4/5/2022.

 

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Breakouts on Crude Oil, US Dollar and US Treasury Bond

 

Sunday, March 6, 2022

 

The prices of crude oil, the US dollar, and the 30-year U.S. treasury bond had upward breakouts while the stock market was almost flat last week. Energy, Oil Equipment, and Precious Metals ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 3/7/2022.

 

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Volatile Market Sparked by Ukraine Crisis

 

Sunday, February 27, 2022

 

The volatility was sparked by a Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the stock market was on a roller coaster ride last week. Energy, Oil Equipment, and Precious Metals ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. Currently the S&P 500 index is below its 200-day exponential moving average with a downside risk. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 3/7/2022.

 

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S&P 500 Index Below 200-Day Moving Average

 

Sunday, February 20, 2022

 

The stock market declined last week, and it is bearish with a significant downside risk while the S&P 500 index broke below its 200-day exponential moving average. Energy, Oil Equipment, and Precious Metals ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 3/7/2022.

 

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Weakening Stock Market

 

Sunday, February 13, 2022

 

The stock market was weakening last week. The S&P 500 index could not stay above its 89-day exponential moving average. Now it is going to test the 200-day exponential moving average again. Energy, Oil Equipment, and Consumer Goods ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The price of crude oil continued moving higher towards our price target 94.6. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond is still bearish while the US dollar and gold are neutral. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 2/15/2022.

 

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S&P 500 Index Stepped above 200 Day Moving Average

 

Sunday, February 6, 2022

 

The S&P 500 index moved back above its 200-day exponential moving average, but still below its 89-day exponential moving average. The market volatility dramatically reduced last week. The S&P 500 index now is in a short-term upward wave. Energy, Oil Equipment, and Consumer Goods ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The price of crude oil continued moving higher. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond is still bearish while the US dollar and gold are neutral. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 2/15/2022.

 

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Markets Wrap Up Volatile Month

 

Sunday, January 30, 2022

 

The stock market was very volatile last week as readings of our Broad Market Instability index surged to 22-month high. The S&P 500 index has breached its 200-day exponential moving average to the downside, and it has developed the first intermediate downward wave. The S&P 500 index will test the 200-day exponential moving average again for a potential rebound this week. Energy, Oil Equipment, and Consumer Goods ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The US dollar index advanced sharply after the price broke above its 2-month descending broadening wedge pattern last week. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 2/2/2022.

 

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Stocks Test Support at 200-Day Moving Average

 

Sunday, January 23, 2022

 

The stock market declined sharply last week as readings of our Broad Market Instability index surged above the panic threshold level. The S&P 500 index broke below its 89-day exponential moving average, and now it is in the first intermediate downward wave with a downside price target projected at 4380. The 200-day exponential moving average will be tested for a support this week. Energy, Oil Equipment, and Consumer Goods ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 1/25/2022.

 

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Oil Prices Spike but Everything Else Weaken

 

Sunday, January 16, 2022

 

The 30-year U.S. treasury bond, the U.S. dollar, and the stock market all were weak except strong crude oil prices last week. The Wilshire 5000 index was testing its 89-day exponential moving average. Energy, Oil Equipment, and Semiconductor ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 1/21/2022.

 

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Stocks Started Falling in the First Week of the Year

 

Sunday, January 9, 2022

 

The stock market pulled back sharply last week. As expected, the S&P 500 index could not maintain its momentum for going higher after an upward breakout from a descending broadening triangle pattern. For the current pullback, it looks for the first support at the 89-day exponential moving average around 4600. Energy, Consumer Goods, and Financials ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 1/21/2022.

 

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Flat Stock Market heading into the New Year

 

Sunday, January 2, 2022

 

The stock market was almost flat last week. Home Construction, Semiconductors, and Real Estate ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The S&P 500 index broke above the resistance level of 4725 from a descending broadening triangle pattern. We have no upside price target projected for this breakout due to a high rate of throwback/pullback on the pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 1/6/2022.

 

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Santa Claus Rally Watch

 

Sunday, December 26, 2021

 

The stock market moved back and forth last week. Semiconductors, Home Construction, and Technology ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The S&P 500 index currently is around the critical resistance level of 4725. For a Santa Claus rally, the S&P 500 index needs to break above 4725. Since there is a descending broadening triangle pattern going on for the S&P 500, if we have a Santa Claus rally this time, it could be like fireworks: pop up and fade out. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 1/6/2022.

 

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Stocks Stalled Near All-Time High

 

Sunday, December 19, 2021

 

The S&P 500 index moved back and forth near the all-time high last week. The level of 4725 for the SPX will be critical to be tested this coming week. Semiconductors, Consumer Goods, and Home Construction ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 12/22/2021.

 

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Stocks Retest All-Time High

 

Sunday, December 12, 2021

 

The stock market recovered losses quickly from a short-term oversold condition last week. The S&P 500 index had a huge upward breakout from a 2-week descending broadening wedge pattern. This breakout will most likely drive the market back to the record high, and will potentially set up a Santa Claus rally. Home Construction, Semiconductors, and Technology ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 12/22/2021.

 

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Volatile Market

 

Sunday, December 5, 2021

 

The stock market extended losses and the Wilshire 5000 index declined below the 89-day exponential moving average last week. The market was very volatile as readings of our Broad Market Instability index surged to 1.5-year high. The market is near a short-term oversold condition. Semiconductors, Home Construction, and Technology ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 12/7/2021.

 

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Elevated Market Volatility

 

Sunday, November 28, 2021

 

The stock market broke out from 3-week-long sideways to the downside sharply last week. Crude oil also declined sharply. The market volatility elevated as readings of our Broad Market Instability index surged to 1-year high last Friday. Semiconductors, Technology, and Home Construction ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 12/7/2021.

 

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Stocks Moving Sideways

 

Sunday, November 21, 2021

 

The US stock market continued moving sideways last week. Semiconductors, Technology, and Home Construction ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The US dollar advance sharply and crude oil started to decline. Please note that readings of our Broad Market Instability index started to rise. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 11/26/2021.

 

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Stocks in Sideways

 

Sunday, November 14, 2021

 

The US stock market moved sideways last week. Semiconductors, Technology, and Home Construction ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. Both the US dollar and gold had sharp upward breakouts last week. Crude oil is likely traded in a horizontal trading range. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 11/26/2021.

 

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Stocks and Bonds Up Together

 

Sunday, November 7, 2021

 

The US stock market extended gain last week. The S&P 500 index is forming a 5-week rising wedge pattern. Semiconductors, Technology, and Energy ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The 30 year US treasury bond advanced sharply. Crude oil turned bearish after the price broke below the lower boundary of its uptrend channel. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 11/29/2021.

 

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Stocks Drifting Up into November

 

Sunday, October 31, 2021

 

The US stock market was slowly drifting up last week. Energy, Technology, and Semiconductors ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. Crude oil was still in an uptrend channel pattern. The 30 year US treasury bond had an upward breakout from a bottom process pattern last week. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 11/19/2021.

 

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Stocks Advanced to All-Time Highs

 

Sunday, October 24, 2021

 

The US stock market advanced to all-time highs again last week. Energy, Oil Equipment, and Financials ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. Crude oil extended gain with an uptrend channel pattern. The US dollar index was testing the lower boundary of a rising wedge pattern for a potential to the downside. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 10/29/2021.

 

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Stock Market Rebounded

 

Sunday, October 17, 2021

 

The stock market rebounded last week as the S&P 500 index held above the 89-day exponential moving average. Energy, Oil Equipment, and Banks ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. Crude oil continued advancing with an uptrend channel pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 10/22/2021.

 

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Sideways Market

 

Sunday, October 10, 2021

 

The S&P 500 index was testing its 89-day exponential moving average (EMA) in sideways market last week. Energy, Oil Equipment, and Banks ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. Crude oil were in an uptrend and the 30-year U.S. treasury bond extended slide. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 10/22/2021.

 

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S&P 500 Index Breached 89-Day EMA

 

Sunday, October 3, 2021

 

The S&P 500 index breached its 89-day exponential moving average (EMA) to the downside first time since last November, and it could be the beginning of an intermediate downward wave. Energy, Banks, and Oil Equipment ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The US dollar and crude oil were bullish last week while gold, silver and the 30-year U.S. treasury bond were bearish. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 10/5/2021.

 

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Sideways Market

 

Sunday, September 26, 2021

 

The stock market recovered from early loss and actually formed a sideways market last week. Technology, Semiconductors, and Internet ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The S&P 500 index has broken below the lower boundary of a multi-month rising wedge pattern. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond also broke below the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 9/29/2021.

 

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Stocks Moved Lower ahead of Fed Meeting

 

Sunday, September 19, 2021

 

The stock market declined to near a 2-month low ahead of next week Fed Meeting. Technology, Semiconductors, and Real Estate ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The S&P 500 index turned bearish as the price breached the lower boundary of a multi-month rising wedge pattern. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond is still neutral with a symmetrical triangle pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 9/27/2021.

 

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Stock Market Pullback

 

Sunday, September 12, 2021

 

The stock market started to pull back with an increasing volatility last week. Technology, Semiconductors, and Real Estate ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. Watch out for a downward breakout of the S&P 500 index from its multi-month rising wedge pattern. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond is also waiting for a breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 9/27/2021.

 

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Flat Stock Market

 

Monday, September 6, 2021

 

The stock market was flat with a very low volatility last week. Technology, Real Estate, and Healthcare ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The S&P 500 index was still in developing its multi-month rising wedge pattern. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond, the US dollar, gold, and crude oil all are waiting for breakouts. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 9/10/2021.

 

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Rising Wedge in S&P 500

 

Sunday, August 29, 2021

 

The S&P 500 index extended its multi-month rising wedge pattern which can be both a continuation and reversal pattern. Technology, Real Estate, and Home Construction ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond index was still bullish with an ascending broadening wedge pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 9/2/2021.

 

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Volatile Markets

 

Sunday, August 22, 2021

 

The stock market pulled back last week. The market volatility jumped up as readings of our Broad Market Instability Index surged above the panic threshold level. Technology, Healthcare, and Real Estate ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The S&P 500 index has not broken out from its multi-month rising wedge pattern yet. The US dollar turned bullish after its price broke above a 2-month horizontal trading range. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond index continued being bullish with an ascending broadening wedge pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 9/1/2021.

 

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Stock Market Momentum Weakening

 

Sunday, August 15, 2021

 

The stock market drifted up with weakening momentum last week. Home Construction, Banks, and Financials ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The S&P 500 index has an extended multi-month rising wedge pattern developed. We ought to be cautious that the S&P 500 index would turn bearish with a downside price target projected at 4075 in case the price breaks below the lower boundary of the rising wedge. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond index continued being bullish with an ascending broadening wedge pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 9/10/2021.

 

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Stock Market at a Short-Term Peak

 

Sunday, August 8, 2021

 

The stock market went slightly up last week. Banks, Real Estate, and Financials ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The S&P 500 index was bullish with a multi-month rising wedge pattern. If the price breaks below the lower boundary of the rising wedge, it would turn bearish with a downside price target projected at 4075 for the S&P 500 index. Both the US dollar and gold were in their 2-month horizontal trading ranges. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 8/27/2021.

 

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Flat Market

 

Sunday, August 1, 2021

 

The stock market was flat with weak momentum last week. Real Estate, Technology, and Banks ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The S&P 500 index was still in a multi-month rising wedge pattern. It is bullish as long as the price is above the lower boundary of the wedge. If the price breaks below the lower boundary, it would turn bearish with a downside price target projected at 4075 for the S&P 500 index. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond index was still bullish with an ascending broadening wedge. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 8/6/2021.

 

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Market Volatility Returning

 

Sunday, July 18, 2021

 

The stock market pulled back as the market volatility started to return last week. Readings of our Broad Market Instability Index surged above the panic threshold level. Real Estate, Technology, and Financials ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The S&P 500 was forming a 3.5-month rising wedge pattern. If the price breaks below the lower boundary of the wedge, it would turn bearish with a downside price target projected at 4075. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 8/2/2021.

 

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Watch Out Market Volatility

 

Sunday, July 11, 2021

 

The stock market was choppy as the market volatility started to move last week. Readings of our Broad Market Instability Index had a large swing range around 100. Real Estate, Technology, and Energy ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. Crude oil, the US dollar, and the 30-year US treasury bond also experienced a large range of price back-and-forth movements. The market volatility is about to return. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 8/3/2021.

 

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Stocks Extended Gains before July Fourth Holiday

 

Monday, July 5, 2021

 

The stock market extended gains to new record highs last week, but the momentum was weakening. Energy, Oil Equipment, and Technology ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The prices of crude oil, the US dollar, and the 30-year US treasury bond also extended higher. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 7/9/2021.

 

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Stocks Advanced

 

Sunday, June 27, 2021

 

The stock market rebounded last week, and made new record highs. Energy, Oil Equipment, and Real Estate ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. Crude oil price advanced higher. The 30-year US treasury bond, the US dollar and gold were in their consolidations after recent big moves. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 7/9/2021.

 

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Stocks Turned Volatile

 

Sunday, June 20, 2021

 

Inflation fears triggered the stock market to take a tumble last week. The market volatility raised as readings of our Broad Market Instability Index jumped above the panic threshold level. The S&P 500 index breached the lower boundary of a 4-month uptrend channel. Gold also broke below its 3-month uptrend channel while the US dollar advanced sharply. The 30-year US treasury bond continued moving upward. Energy, Oil Equipment, and Real Estate ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 7/2/2021.

 

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Stocks Hovered at Record Highs

 

Sunday, June 13, 2021

 

The stock market slowly drifted up and made new highs again last week. Oil Equipment, Energy, and Real Estate ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The S&P 500 index is still in a 4-month uptrend channel pattern. The 30-year US treasury bond turned bullish after its price had an upward breakout from a 3-month horizontal trading range. The US dollar is bullish with its upward breakout from a 3-month falling wedge pattern. Crude oil is also bullish with its upward breakout from a 3-month horizontal trading range. Fed meeting this week may have an influence on the markets. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 7/2/2021.

 

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Stock Market Flat Near Record High

 

Sunday, June 6, 2021

 

The stock market was almost flat near the record high last week. Oil Equipment, Energy, and Banks ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. Both the S&P 500 index and gold are in their short-term uptrend channel patterns. Crude oil resumed rising after the price broke out from a 3-month horizontal trading range. The US dollar had an upward breakout from its 3-month falling wedge pattern. The 30-year US treasury bond still remains in a short-term horizontal trading range. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 6/8/2021.

 

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Relatively Quiet Price Action For Stocks

 

Monday, May 31, 2021

 

The stock market drifted slightly higher with a very low volatility last week. Oil Equipment, Energy, and Banks ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. Both the S&P 500 index and gold are in their short-term bullish chart patterns. The US dollar is very close to a bullish breakout point. Both the 30-year US treasury bond and crude oil are still remaining in their short-term horizontal trading ranges. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 6/7/2021.

 

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Indecisive Market

 

Sunday, May 23, 2021

 

The stock market continued moving back-and-forth and directionless last week. Oil Equipment, Energy, and Banks ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The S&P 500 index looks bullish within a 3-month uptrend channel pattern. Gold is bullish with its price breaking above the upper boundary of a 2.5-month rising wedge pattern while the US dollar has been weakening. Both the 30-year US treasury bond and crude oil are still in their short-term horizontal trading ranges. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 6/7/2021.

 

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Stock Market Bouncing Back and Forth

 

Sunday, May 16, 2021

 

Fears of gas shortage after pipeline hack hit stocks earlier last week, and the stock market experienced a roller-coaster ride. The S&P 500 index made up most of losses Thursday and Friday, and it is an indecisive market. Readings of our Broad Market Instability index returned below the panic threshold level. Oil Equipment, Energy, and Banks ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The US dollar is bearish in a falling wedge pattern while gold is bullish with a rising wedge pattern. Both the 30-year US treasury bond and crude oil are still in their short-term horizontal trading ranges. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 6/1/2021.

 

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Stock Market in a High Wave Mode

 

Sunday, May 9, 2021

 

The stock market was in a high wave mode with a range over 1% in both downside and upside and moved nowhere last week. Oil Equipment, Energy, and Banks ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The S&P 500 index is still in a 3-month rising wedge pattern. Both the 30-year US treasury bond and crude oil continue in their 2-month horizontal trading ranges. The US dollar became bearish after a breakdown last week, and gold turned bullish to form a rising wedge. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 5/24/2021.

 

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Sideways Market

 

Sunday, May 2, 2021

 

The stock market were in sideways last week. Energy, Oil Equipment, and Banks ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The S&P 500 index is testing the lower boundary of a short-term rising wedge pattern for a potential breakdown. Both the 30-year US treasury bond and crude oil are in 2-month horizontal trading ranges. The US dollar rebounded from a support and gold breached to the downside. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 5/7/2021.

 

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Stocks in Choppy Treading

 

Sunday, April 25, 2021

 

The stock market experienced choppy trading last week. Energy, Banks, and Home Construction ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The S&P 500 index is forming a short-term rising wedge pattern, and the price fluctuates in a narrow range to wait for a breakout from the wedge. Gold, the 30-year US treasury bond, US dollar, and crude oil all have weakening momentum. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 5/7/2021.

 

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Stocks Entered Overbought Territory

 

Sunday, April 18, 2021

 

The US stock market slowly drifted higher last week. Energy, Oil Equipment, and Banks ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The S&P 500 index is overbought and is due for a pullback. Readings of our Broad Market Instability index started to rise. Gold and the 30-year US treasury bond jump up from their bottom process patterns. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 5/10/2021.

 

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Extreme Low Stock Volatility with Excessive Optimism

 

Sunday, April 11, 2021

 

The stock market extended gain last week with positive momentum and very low volatility. Semiconductors, Energy, and Oil Equipment ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The S&P 500 index is forming a short-term ascending broadening wedge pattern, and the price reached the upper boundary of the wedge. The 30-year US treasury is forming a bottom reversal process. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 4/13/2021.

 

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Stocks Hovered Near Record Highs

 

Sunday, April 4, 2021

 

The stock market hovered near all-time highs with positive momentum and very low volatility. Oil Equipment, Energy, and Biotech ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The S&P 500 index is forming a short-term ascending broadening wedge pattern. The 30-year US treasury is forming a bump-and-run pattern for a potential bullish reversal. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 4/13/2021.

 

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Market Momentum Turned Negative

 

Sunday, March 21, 2021

 

The stock market pulled back from all-time high last week with negative momentum but very low volatility. Oil Equipment, Energy, and Banks ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The S&P 500 index is forming a short-term ascending broadening wedge pattern which has a bearish bias for a potential bearish reversal. Also crude oil is forming a topping pattern for a potential breakdown. The 30-year US treasury is forming a bump-and-run pattern for a potential bullish reversal. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 3/24/2021.

 

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Stocks Made Record Highs

 

Sunday, March 14, 2021

 

The stock market advanced to record highs with low volatility and positive momentum last week. Oil Equipment, Energy, and Banks ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The S&P 500 index is forming a short-term ascending broadening wedge pattern which has a bearish bias for a potential bearish reversal. Crude oil remained in a 4.5-month uptrend channel, and the 30-year US treasury bond was still bearish. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 3/24/2021.

 

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Volatile Markets

 

Sunday, March 7, 2021

 

The volatility of the stock market jumped up last week, and readings of our Broad Market Instability Index surged to 107 that is above the panic threshold level. The S&P 500 index broke below the lower boundary of its 6-month rising wedge pattern, and it is bearish for further decline. Oil Equipment, Energy, and Semiconductors ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. Crude oil was bullish in a 4-month uptrend channel, and the 30-year US treasury bond extended decline. The US dollar had a bullish breakout and added pressure on gold. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 3/10/2021.

 

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Stocks, Gold, and Treasury Bond Declined Concurrently

 

Sunday, February 28, 2021

 

The US stock market declined sharply last week. The volatility increased as readings of our Broad Market Instability Index jumped up above the panic threshold level. The S&P 500 index breached the lower boundary of its 6-month rising wedge pattern, and sent a warning signal for a downward move. Oil Equipment, Energy, and Semiconductors ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The 30-year US treasury bond also moved sharply lower, and gold broke below the lower boundary of its 8-month descending triangle patter last week. Crude oil is still bullish in a 4-month uptrend channel. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 3/11/2021.

 

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Stock Market Weakens

 

Sunday, February 21, 2021

 

The US stock market drifted lower with slightly increased volatility and negative momentum last week. Semiconductors, Oil Equipment, and Energy ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The S&P 500 index pulled back from the upper boundary of a 5-month rising wedge pattern, and the pattern suggests a potential reversal ahead. The 30-year US treasury bond moved sharply lower and the US dollar was weakening last week. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 3/11/2021.

 

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Stock Market in Sideways Drift Last Week

 

Sunday, February 15, 2021

 

The US stock market drifted up slowly with a very low volatility last week. Semiconductors, Internet, and Technology sectors ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The S&P 500 index is forming a 5-month rising wedge pattern suggesting a reversal ahead, and it would turn bearish if the price breaks below the lower boundary of the wedge. The 30-year US treasury bond remains bearish with a downtrend channel pattern, and the crude oil index is bullish in an uptrend channel pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 2/19/2021.

 

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Stock Market Topping Again

 

Monday, February 8, 2021

 

The US stock market rebounded from the previous low and advanced to a new high. Semiconductors, Internet, and Oil Equipment sectors ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The S&P 500 index returned to the final upward leg of its multi-month butterfly pattern still heading towards a potential top reversal. The US dollar index broke above its inverse head-and-shoulders pattern for a potential bottom out. The 30-year US treasury bond remains bearish with a downtrend channel pattern, and the crude oil index is bullish in an uptrend channel pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 2/12/2021.

 

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Bearish Top Reversal in US Stock Market

 

Sunday, January 31, 2021

 

The US stock market had a bearish top reversal from all-time highs and declined sharply last week. Except Oil Equipment, Biotech, Pharmaceuticals, and Healthcare sectors, all other sectors had their StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) dropped on a weekly basis. Readings of our Broad Market Instability Index surged up to the panic threshold level. Based on the top reversal last week, the intermediate-term view on the S&P 500 index has been changed to bearish with starting the first downward intermediate wave, and downside price targets have been projected as detailed in this week report. The US dollar index is forming a multi-week inverse head-and-shoulders pattern for a potential bullish reversal. The 30-year US treasury bond remained bearish with a downtrend channel pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 2/11/2021.

 

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Stocks Mixed on Sector Rotation

 

Sunday, January 24, 2021

 

The US stock market closed slightly higher last week with very low volatility and weak momentum. Stocks in the technology sectors including Semiconductors, Internet, and Biotech heated up but most other sectors like Banks, Financials, Materials, Industrials, Telecommunication and Utilities lost steam. The S&P 500 index is still in stretching the final upward leg of its multi-month butterfly pattern heading towards a potential top reversal. The US dollar index is likely to form a multi-week inverse head-and-shoulders pattern for a potential bullish reversal. The 30-year US treasury bond remained bearish with a downtrend channel pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 2/15/2021.

 

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US Stock Market is Topping

 

Sunday, January 17, 2021

 

The stock market closed negative last week with very low volatility and momentum. The S&P 500 index is still in stretching the final upward leg of its multi-month butterfly for a potential top reversal. Oil Equipment, Semiconductors, and Consumer Goods sectors ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The US dollar gained momentum after it broke upward from a 2-month falling wedge pattern. The 30-year US treasury bond remained bearish with a downtrend channel pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 1/22/2021.

 

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Markets Kick Off 2021

 

Sunday, January 10, 2021

 

The stock market advanced higher in the first week of the year. Both the market volatility and market momentum remained at very low levels. The S&P 500 index has stretched the final upward leg of its multi-month butterfly pattern with an extension over 1.6 which has a bearish indication of approaching a top reversal. Oil Equipment, Semiconductors, and Consumer Goods sectors ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The US dollar bounced from a falling wedge pattern last week, and added a pressure to gold and silver. The 30-year US treasury bond remained in its bearish downtrend pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 1/19/2021.

 

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Stock Market Hovered Near Record Highs

 

Sunday, January 3, 2021

 

The stock market drifted higher at record highs last week with low volatility and low momentum. The S&P 500 index still slowly stretches the final upward leg of its multi-month butterfly pattern which has a bearish indication of approaching a top reversal. Semiconductors, Consumer Goods, and Banks sectors ranked as the top three sectors with mostly strong technical strengths. The US dollar and 30-year US treasury bond remained in their bearish downward patterns. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 1/13/2021.

 

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