Latest Market Update

 

Rising Oil and Flat S&P 500

 

Sunday, August 21, 2016

 

Last week crude oil advanced sharply with a bullish bump-and-run reversal bottom pattern. Now it is not far away from the projected profit-taking level around 51. The S&P 500 index has been flat for another week. Watch out for a potential bearish reversal of the SPX in this coming week. The current short-term bullish time-window for the broad stock market is projected to be ending around 8/22/2016.

 

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Bullish Signs in Chinese, Indian and German Stocks

 

Sunday, August 14, 2016

 

The stock markets of China, India, and Germany developed bullish technical chart patterns. The S&P 500 index is in a drifting up mode and this mode is expected to extend into this coming week before a potential bearish reversal. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 8/22/2016.

 

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SPX at All Time High

 

Sunday, August 7, 2016

 

As the S&P 500 index closed at all-time-high, the MACD histogram indicator presented that the stock market is approaching a transition point between a bear market and a bull market in a long-term view. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 8/12/2016.

 

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SPX Extended Tight Trading Range

 

Sunday, July 31, 2016

 

The S&P 500 index extended a tight trading range last week while momentum became negative. Prices of gold and treasury bonds turned up sharply. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 8/5/2016.

 

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Time to Prepare for a Market Pullback

 

Sunday, July 24, 2016

 

The S&P 500 index traded in a tight range last week as momentum weakened. The short-term cycle of the general stock market is rolling over from a peak. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 8/5/2016.

 

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Stock Market at Short-Term Cycle Peak

 

Sunday, July 17, 2016

 

The short-term cycle of the general stock market reached its peak as the major indexes hit record levels last week. The broad stock market is projected to be in a neutral time-window in this coming week, and then to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 8/5/2016.

 

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SPX Forms Broadening Top Pattern near All Time High

 

Sunday, July 10, 2016

 

The general stock market finished strongly last week while gold and treasury bonds advanced. As prices near all time high, the S&P 500 index is forming a 3-month broadening triangle pattern that reflects a volatile emotional market when bulls and bears are battling to gain control of the market. This pattern is also known as a Broadening Top or Reverse Symmetrical Triangle which is considered a bearish reversal pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 7/15/2016.

 

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Stock Post-Brexit Rally Faces Challenge

 

Sunday, July 3, 2016

 

The sharp post-Brexit rebound of the general stock market faces a challenge as prices approach the overhead resistance. The S&P index is forming a 10-week descending broadening right-triangle pattern which is a tricky chart pattern for the next price bumpy ride. Under the current complicate situations in the developed countries with the post-Brexit challenges in Europe and the uncertainty of the presidential election in America, there would be a money backflow to the emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The stock markets of those emerging countries are strengthening. Watch for a breakout from a 5-month triangle pattern on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 7/15/2016.

 

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A Volatile Market Can Surprise You

 

Sunday, June 26, 2016

 

The Brexit result sent the general stock market sharply lower last week. The Broad Market Instability Index surged above the panic threshold. The S&P 500 index failed to make a new high, and resumed its intermediate downward wave. The fast price decline will end short-term downward wave 1 soon, and a bounce with short-term upward wave 2 will be the next. A massive flight to safety pushed gold, silver and treasury bonds higher, but prices are testing their respective overhead resistance levels. The Chinese stock market is in an interesting bottoming process. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 6/27/2016.

 

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Financial Markets Waiting for Brexit Vote

 

Sunday, June 19, 2016

 

Financial markets become choppy as the Brexit vote is approaching. We have mixed market signals with a negative momentum of the general stock market and relative low readings of the Broad Market Instability index under the panic threshold. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 6/27/2016.

 

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Don’t Ignore Downside Risk in Stock Markets

 

Sunday, June 12, 2016

 

The S&P 500 index just started a downward wave with the first decline leg of a new correction. The broad market instability index began to jump up. The 30-year treasury bond and gold were up on a flight to safety as the markets got nervous for Fed’s decision on interest rates in the coming week. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 6/27/2016.

 

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Markets Moving Sideways

 

Sunday, June 5, 2016

 

The 30-year treasury bond, gold and silver resumed their upward momentum last week while the U.S. dollar fell sharply. The SPX stalled near the April high and moved sideways within a narrow price range between 2085 and 2105. The sectors of precious metals, materials and semiconductors outperformed the market. The Chinese stock market approached a bullish breakout point as the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index breached the upper boundary of an 1-year falling wedge pattern. The short-term time-window of the broad stock market is projected to be bullish until 6/8/2016, and to turn bearish thereafter.

 

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Market Topping as Wave X Continues

 

Sunday, May 29, 2016

 

The general stock market moves back to the previous high but it is still in the flat correction which started from last August. A sideways market near the all time high is confusing. We should be extra careful when short-term market prices rise as upward wave X continues, because we are in a bear market having a corrective pattern of WXY (Double Three) complex waves rather than classic ABC (Zig-Zag). The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 6/8/2016.

 

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Choppy Market

 

Sunday, May 22, 2016

 

The general stock market becomes choppy as the S&P 500 index is in the second sub-wave. A sideways market is expected before this short-term upward wave ends. The S&P 500 index is forming a bearish 2-month head-and-shoulders top pattern and prices against the neckline need to be closely watched. The Chinese stock market is building up a bullish bias with an 1-year falling wedge pattern for a potential breakout to the upside once its fifth downward sub-wave ends. Based on the forecast of the Leading-Wave Index, the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 6/8/2016.

 

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Bearish Head-and-Shoulders Top on SPX

 

Sunday, May 15, 2016

 

The Broad Market Instability index stayed above the panic threshold last week while the market momentum was negative. The S&P 500 index is forming a bearish 2-month head-and-shoulders top pattern and prices are about to test the neckline at the level of 2040. Based on the forecast of the Leading-Wave Index, the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 5/18/2016.

 

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Watch Out for Market Volatility

 

Sunday, May 8, 2016

 

The Broad Market Instability index started to surge and crossed above the panic threshold last week. The Japanese and Chinese stock markets led weakening of the global markets. The biotech and technology sectors were the worst in performance among sectors. Based on the forecast of the Leading-Wave Index, the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 5/13/2016.

 

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Stock Indexes Fell Back from Resistance

 

Sunday, May 1, 2016

 

As the US dollar continued to slide and gold resumed its uptrend, major stock indexes of the world fell back from resistance last week. The technology and biotech sectors led the downturn of the general market. The S&P 500 index just began a new corrective wave while the Broad Market Instability index started to jump up. Based on the forecast of the Leading-Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 5/13/2016.

 

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Watch Out for Market Inflection Point

 

Sunday, April 24, 2016

 

The technology sector became underperforming the market last week after the disappointed earning reports from bellwethers Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG). Upcoming earning reports and the Fed meeting this week will affect the bear market rally to continue or reverse. Based on the forecast of the Leading-Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to change its short-term time-window from bullish to bearish this week around 4/27/2016.

 

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Is This a Bull Trap?

 

Sunday, April 17, 2016

 

As the stock market rally extended, the Broad Market Instability index (BIX) that we monitored stayed at a very low level recently for a while. The BIX has reached extremely low, and it is not going to stay below the reading of 2 or 3 very long. The bear market rally is setting up another sequence of corrective waves. Fed meeting next week and upcoming earnings reports will be major factors to change the market volatility.

 

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A Cautious Market

 

Sunday, April 10, 2016

 

Gold and precious metals stocks hold strength from safe haven buying while the bank and internet sectors are weak. The overbought stock market developed a negative momentum last week. The bear market rally is near the late part with a cautious mood. We may see a choppy market this week. Based on the forecast of the Leading-Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 4/13/2016.

 

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Sideways Markets in a Flat Correction

 

Sunday, April 3, 2016

 

The US stock market finished slightly positive in the first quarter this year, and formed a sideways market. Our new analysis suggests that the current bear market started from last August will be most likely a complex combination of multiple corrective waves with flats and zigzags. Based on the forecast of the Leading-Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 4/8/2016.

 

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Stock Market Momentum Turns Negative

 

Sunday, March 27, 2016

 

The S&P 500 index just started a downward sub-wave as the stock market momentum turned negative last week. The material and energy sectors are weakening due to softening commodities prices. Gold, silver and precious metals stocks are in a price consolidation. Based on the forecast of the Leading-Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 4/8/2016.

 

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Bearish Rising Wedge Extended on SPX

 

Sunday, March 20, 2016

 

Global stocks gained last week as rising commodities prices boosted material and energy shares while the US dollar weakened. The S&P 500 index extended its short-term bearish rising wedge pattern to the fifth week, and negative divergence showed up with advanced prices and downward momentum strength. Historic data suggest a late-month weakness in March. We have mixed bullish and bearish signals which the broad market instability index is still low but the short-term time-window is projected to be bearish into April.

 
SPX 3-18-2016 (Hourly)
 

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Be Cautious about Drifting-Up Stock Market

 

Sunday, March 13, 2016

 

The broad stock market is in a drifting-up mode with a bear market rally. The S&P 500 index has formed a short-term bearish rising wedge pattern since mid-February. Last week the lower boundary of the wedge was breached as a broadening top started forming. The market volatility should resume during this coming week for Fed meeting and triple-witching expiration. Based on the forecast of the Leading-Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 3/16/2016.

 

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S&P 500 Index Approaches Upside Resistance

 

Sunday, March 6, 2016

 

Last week the crude oil price breached the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern, and this could be a bullish sign for crude oil. The stock market continues drifting up as the S&P 500 index approaches the upside resistance near 2010. Based on the forecast of the Leading-Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 3/11/2016.

 

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Stock Market Drifting Up

 

Sunday, February 28, 2016

 

The stock market was drifting up with a positive momentum last week. Crude oil has been forming a huge falling wedge with a bullish bias, and prices are approaching the upper boundary of the wedge. Based on the forecast of the Leading-Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 3/2/2016.

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Stock Market Gaining Strength

 

Sunday, February 21, 2016

 

The global stock markets turned into a positive momentum last week while gold, silver and the 30-year US treasury bond got in their consolidations. Breaking above the price level of 1940 will set the S&P 500 index into a bear market rally. Based on the forecast of the Leading-Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 3/2/2016.

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US Bonds and Gold Gain on Stock Turmoil

 

Sunday, February 14, 2016

 

Gold/silver and the 30-year US treasury bond have advanced sharply on a flight to safety as the stock market turmoil intensified. Last week, the 30-year US treasury bond reached our short-term upside price target of 165, and silver 15.4. Gold still has an upside potential. Based on the forecast of the Leading-Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 2/23/2016.

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Bullish Reversal in Gold and Silver

 

Sunday, February 7, 2016

 

While the US dollar had a bearish reversal signal last week, gold and silver got bullish and broke to the upside from a falling wedge pattern and an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern respectively. Precious metal stocks have been outperforming the market. As stocks struggled to a bear market rally, the Broad Market Instability Index (BIX) crossed above the panic threshold again. Based on the forecast of the Leading-Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 2/12/2016, followed by a bearish time-window.

GOLD 2-5-2016 (Weekly)

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Shadow of Negative January

 

Sunday, January 31, 2016

 

The month of January comes to a close with a terrible performance of the stock market. The S&P 500 index lost 5.07%, and it is now 8.94% below its all time high. Biotech, banks, and internet sectors were most heavily sold off and almost every sector had losses, except precious metals, telecommunication, and utilities sectors. The end of January triggers something called the January Barometer, i.e., as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year. Seeing as the month ended on such a negative note, this could be a bad omen for stock market in the rest of the year. A surprise move on Friday from the Bank of Japan to cut interest rates below zero sparked a rally in stocks. Based on the forecast of the Leading-Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 2/8/2016.

Sector Performance January 2016

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Remarkably Similar to the Stock Market In 2008

 

Sunday, January 24, 2016

 

When it comes to the first three week behavior of the stock market, 2016 looks very similar to 2008. With a worse opening week, the S&P 500 index continuously declined in the first three weeks for both years, and plunged 9.03% in 2016 and 10.75% in 2008. Afterwards, the stock market rebounded. This similarity reminds us of the crisis we had in 2008, and it is a warning flag for a serious challenge in the stock market this year. Based on the forecast of the Leading-Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 2/8/2016. We may see a rebound going in the next couple of weeks, but it may not be more than a bear market rally.

SPX 2008 vs 2016

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Volatile Market Going Oversold

 

Sunday, January 17, 2016

 

Beginning this year, the broad stock market has become very volatile. Market volatility, as measured by the Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), surged dramatically during the last two weeks from 4 to a level of 882 which is the highest reading in four and a half years. As prices dropped below the low of last August, the Wilshire 5000 index lost 8.66% year to date. Beginning a new year with such a large scale decline is regarded as a very bad omen for the direction of the stock market in 2016. In the short-term, the broad stock market is projected to be in a bearish time-window until 1/20/2016, and the oversold market could rebound anytime during the following week.

Market Instability 1-15-2016

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Worst Opening Week Ever

 

Sunday, January 10, 2016

 

Led by sharp stocks decline in the major emerging markets like China, Russia, and Brazil, global stock markets ended their worst opening week we have ever seen. Counting on the first five trading days, the S&P 500 index dropped 5.96% this year, which is worse than the 5.3% loss for the bad year in 2008. Our Broad Market Instability Index (BIX) surged to 390 last Friday. The SPX and German DAX are in the mid-way of an intermediate downward wave, and are most likely to test the August low. The Shanghai Composite index is nearing a breakdown on a bearish head-and-shoulders top pattern which could result in another 1000-point falling. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 1/20/2016.

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Buckle Up for Market Turbulence in 2016

 

Sunday, January 3, 2016

 

The general stock market finished its 2015 with a lackluster performance. This shouldn’t be any surprise to us, since we had seen a bad omen earlier last year from several bearish indications such as Santa Claus rally failure, poor first five trading days of the year, and negative January performance. The stock market has been in a bear market since last August. The Santa Claus rally we just had this time in December was just a very weak bear market rally. The Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the market is heading towards south with downward waves in both long-term and mid-term. We are in a bear market, buckle up!

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Bullish Tone Ahead of the Year End

 

Sunday, December 27, 2015

 

A bullish reversal on the general stock market last week set up a bullish tone for stocks ahead of the year-end. The Broad Market Instability index (BIX) decreased below the panic threshold, and the S&P 500 index got in a short-term upward wave with a bullish momentum. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 1/11/2016. Hopefully, the Santa Claus rally will last all the way through New Year’s Day.

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Roller Coaster Markets

 

Sunday, December 20, 2015

 

Fed interest rate hike for the first time in nearly a decade last week set financial markets on a roller coaster ride. The stock market was very volatile and our Broad Market Instability Index (BIX) stayed above the panic threshold. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 12/24/2015, followed by a bullish time-window afterwards. The market may have a bullish reversal early anytime before 12/24/2015, to expect a Santa Claus Rally which the price of stocks often surge in the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day.

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Volatile Waves to the Downside

 

Sunday, December 13, 2015

 

Last week a selloff in the broad market was triggered by the oil price plunge, and stocks suffered heavy losses in volatile trading. Elliott Wave analysis indicates that the stock market is very bearish in current downward waves of all three time-frames in the long-, middle-, and short-term. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 12/24/2015.

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Bearish Sings in Bullish Season

 

Sunday, December 6, 2015

 

As the general stock market changed direction back and forth rapidly last week, our Broad Market Instability Index (BIX) surged above the panic threshold level and signaled a risky market ahead. A symmetrical triangle pattern of the 30-year US treasury bond indicates that the bond price is very near a breakout point. If the Fed raises the interest rates this month, the bond price will break to the downside. Gold and silver strongly bounced off their support while the US dollar had a sell signal last week. The risk level becomes high for stocks, treasury bonds, and US dollar although we are is a typical bullish season. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 12/11/2015 followed by a bearish time-window afterwards. However, if a selloff is triggered anytime during the coming week, the short-term time-window is expected to turn immediately from neutral to bearish.

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Seasonal Outperformance in Small Caps

 

Sunday, November 29, 2015

 

The general market moved in a very narrow range during this last holiday-shortened week except the strong U.S. dollar and small cap stocks. Recent waking up and outperforming of small-cap stocks indicate that the January Effect has started. The internet, semiconductors, and home construction sectors are leading the market slightly higher. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 12/7/2015.

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A Best Week after a Worst Week

 

Sunday, November 22, 2015

 

The general stock market performed stronger than we expected and traded higher last week. The market had a best week after a worst week side by side. This is a bear market rally and the S&P 500 index is still in corrective primary wave A. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 11/27/2015.

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Stock Bear Market is Back

 

Sunday, November 15, 2015

 

The general stock market reversed after the warning sign from the negative divergence developed between the stock market price and its momentum. Last week our Broad Market Instability index surged up above the panic threshold, and the stock market suffered its worst week since August. Downward primary wave has resumed, and it is just the first down wave of a downward 1-2-3-4-5 sub-wave sequence. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 11/27/2015.

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Negative Divergence in the Stock Market

 

Sunday, November 8, 2015

 

Although the upward primary B wave extended than expected, there is a negative divergence developed between the stock market price and its momentum. This is a warning sign that a reverse is near and the downward primary C wave is the next. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 11/27/2015.

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Short-Term Momentum is Weakening

 

Sunday, November 1, 2015

 

The S&P 500 index has been in upward primary wave B for a month. It nears the end of the upward wave, and downward primary wave C will be the next. Crude oil could turn bullish once it has an upward breakout from its 1-year falling wedge. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 11/11/2015.

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Stock Market at a Turning Point

 

Sunday, October 25, 2015

 

Led by technology sector advance, the general stock market had a counter-trend rally of a bear market. Another downward primary wave will be the next. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 11/11/2015

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Counter-Trend Rally of a Bear Market

 

Sunday, October 11, 2015

 

Gold and crude oil are testing upper boundaries for a breakout from their falling wedge patterns. The stock market becomes short-term bullish but it is in a counter-trend rally of a bear market. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 10/19/2015.

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Markets are Volatile but Range-bound

 

Sunday, October 4, 2015

 

The general stock market returned to a choppy mode while our Broad Market Instability Index surged above the panic threshold. Crude oil and gold are waiting for a breakout from their falling wedge patterns. The 30-year US treasury bond and silver are waiting for a breakout from their symmetrical triangle patterns. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 10/8/2015.

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Caution, Leg Down in Bear Market

 

Sunday, September 27, 2015

 

The equity market started another leg down last week, as the biotech sector lost its multi-year market leadership and had its largest weekly drop in 7 years. Gold could launch a short-term rally once it breaks to the upside from an 1-year falling wedge pattern. Our Broad Market Instability Index is surging above the panic threshold. The current leg down of the market could send the S&P 500 index to 1840, the German DAX to 9000, and the Shanghai Composite index to 2600. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 10/8/2015.

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Bear Market Rally Failed

 

Sunday, September 20, 2015

 

Stock markets attempted to break a triangle range to upside but failed last week under the shadow of global growth slowdown. The sideways movement could continue in the coming week before the next leg down. Our bearish outlook on the stock markets alerts that the next leg down could send the S&P 500 index to 1840, the German DAX to 9000, and the Shanghai Composite index to 2600. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 9/25/2015, and a bearish time-window right after.

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Looking to Break Triangle Range to Upside

 

Sunday, September 13, 2015

 

Stock markets have been choppy for last three weeks and price movement has been converged in a 3-week triangle pattern. It looks more likely that prices will break to the upside of the triangle for a bear market rally. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 9/25/2015.

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Oversold Markets Look to Rebound

 

Monday, September 7, 2015

 

Although global stock markets had a volatile week, our Broad Market Instability Index actually turned much lower below the panic threshold, which is a bullish divergence for stocks. Stock markets may rebound off oversold levels for a bear market rally. It becomes attractive that crude oil is building up a bullish bias on an 1-year falling wedge chart pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 9/25/2015.

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Watch Out for Volatile Market Swings

 

Monday, August 31, 2015

 

Oversold crude oil develops an one-year falling wedge pattern building up a bullish bias for technical speculation to break to the upside. The S&P 500 index and the German DAX try to bounce for a bear market rally. A bearish head-and-shoulders top pattern of the Shanghai Composite index suggests a downside risk to the 2600 level. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 9/2/2015.

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Instability Surging in Global Stock Markets

 

Sunday, August 23, 2015

 

All major stock market indexes around global plummet. The Broad Market Instability index surges above the panic threshold. The S&P 500 index broke downward from its 7-year rising wedge, and it turned into a primary corrective wave for a new bear market. The German DAX index also rolled over into a bear market. The Shanghai Composite index sharply broke below its 9-month trendline and a further selloff was triggered. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 9/3/2015.

SPX 8-21-2015 Monthly MACD + Rising Wedge

 
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Volatile and Choppy Markets

 

Sunday, August 16, 2015

 

Sideways markets continue in directionless but volatile and choppy. The S&P 500 index still develops an ending diagonal with the primary fifth wave which is a bearish sign to near the end of the bull market. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 8/28/2015.

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Stock Indexes Stuck in Neutral

 

Sunday, August 9, 2015

 

The Broad Market Instability Index is above the panic threshold level. The Wilshire 5000 index is below its 89-day exponential moving average, and the momentum is in the negative territory. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 8/11/2015, and to turn into a short-term bullish window right after.

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Stock Markets at a Critical Juncture

 

Sunday, August 2, 2015

 

The broad stock market reaches the final stage of the bull market while the S&P 500 index is confined in a bearish ending diagonal. Once this ending diagonal breaks down, a primary corrective wave will start for a new bear market. The Chinese stock resumed its downtrend towards a new downside price target after the recent bounce failed with a bearish partial rise inside a 7-month ascending triangle pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 8/7/2015.

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Stock Markets Failed to Bounce Higher

 

Sunday, July 26, 2015

 

Analysis from daily, weekly and monthly charts of the S&P 500 index gives early warning signs of a potential new bear market. Our Broad Market Instability index surged up above 200 last week alerting for higher risk in stock markets in general. The recent bounce of the Shanghai stock index has met a resistance at the 89-day exponential moving average near 4100 and failed to advance further. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 8/7/2015.

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Stock Markets Continue to Bounce Higher

 

Sunday, July 19, 2015

 

Led by the Tokyo Nikkei index, the major world stock markets including the S&P 500 index, Shanghai index, and German DAX continue to bounce towards the upside. The gold index broke below the key support level of 1150, and a selloff was triggered. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 7/27/2015.

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Markets Bouncing

 

Sunday, July 12, 2015

 

The Chinese stock market had a very volatile week and reversed with the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index bouncing back from just over 3400 to about 3900. There is a limited time-window and a big challenge for this bounce. The S&P 500 index and German DAX are in a transition from a corrective wave to an upward wave. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 7/15/2015, and to turn into a bullish time-window right after.

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Broad Market Instability Rising

 

Sunday, July 5, 2015

 

The Chines stock market sharply declined three weeks in a row and it has plunged 28% from its multi-year high. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index approaches 3600 which is expected to be the first level of defense against free-fall. The S&P 500 index and German DAX have been under the shadow of the Greece debt crisis. Our Broad Market Instability indicator has surged above the panic threshold. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 7/15/2015.

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Markets in Holding Mode ahead of Greek Resolution

 

Sunday, June 28, 2015

 

The S&P 500 index and German DAX are in holding mode with the uncertainty of Greek resolution. Following the warning sign we observed from a dangerous ending diagonal pattern on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index, the Chinese stock market had a 20% plunge over the last two weeks and it could decline more. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 7/2/2015.

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SPX and DAX with Elliott Wave Bullish Bias

 

Sunday, June 21, 2015

 

The S&P 500 index (SPX) accumulates energy for next breakout while the treasury bonds build up a bullish bias. The German DAX is ending its two-month-long correction and is likely to resume its uptrend. The Chinese stock market had a dramatic bearish reversal last week, and it turns into a major correction. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 7/2/2015.

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Cautious Market with Fed Meeting and Triple Witching

 

Sunday, June 14, 2015

 

The inverse relationship between stocks and interest rates plays an important rule to the current stock market. This week’s U.S. central bank’s policy meeting will be the focus of financial markets. The market could be volatile also with the triple witching nears. There is still at least one more upside push left for the stock market before the Fed raises interest rates this year. The broad stock market is about to turn into a short-term bullish time-window and is projected to be in the bullish time-window until 6/25/2015.

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Weakness in Both Stocks and Bonds

 

Sunday, June 7, 2015

 

The U.S. stock market, U.S. treasury bond and U.S. dollar are likely bearish in the coming week. The Indian stock market is breaching a critical support, and the Chinese stock market is building up a dangerous ending diagonal pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 6/15/2015.

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Stocks Likely to Weaken in June

 

Sunday, May 31, 2015

 

The U.S. stock market is still in a flat correction and is likely to further weaken in June. The German DAX is in its intermediate fourth-wave correction. The Chinese stock market is forming a dangerous ending diagonal pattern which implies a dramatic decline ahead. The crude oil forms a bullish measured move up pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 6/15/2015.

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Choppy Market

 

Monday, May 25, 2015

 

The S&P 500 index is in a choppy mode, and the stock market is likely to weaken further in June. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 6/2/2015.

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Market Topping Process

 

Sunday, May 10, 2015

 

The S&P 500 index has been in a 2-month flat correction and it is waiting for a breakout from its 10-week ascending triangle pattern. The Chinese stock market turned into a major correction with the primary second wave, and the Indian stock market rolled over after a major bearish reversal. The German DAX index has been in a correction with the intermediate fourth wave. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 5/12/2015.

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Bearish Signs in Financial Markets

 

Sunday, May 3, 2015

 

A bearish sign appears as the S&P 500 index nears the end of its 6-year rising wedge. The U.S. dollar has formed a bump-and-run reversal top, and the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond also has a bearish sign with a partial rising inside a 9-month ascending broadening wedge. The Indian stock market has formed a major bearish reversal, and the German DAX index has been in an intermediate correction. Readings of the Broad Market Instability index are rising. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 5/14/2015.

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Stock Market Cautious

 

Sunday, April 26, 2015

 

The U.S. stock market is neutral, and the S&P 500 index is waiting for a breakout from an 8-week ascending triangle pattern. The German DAX index gets into a correction, and the Indian Bombay index has a bearish reversal while the Chinese Shanghai index is in the last up leg before a major correction. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 4/30/2015.

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Choppy Market Continues

 

Saturday, April 18, 2015

 

The S&P 500 index was unable to break above 2100, and it returned into a 7-week symmetrical triangle pattern to continue a choppy mode. Crude oil had a bullish breakout from a 3-month double bottoms pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 5/4/2015.

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Market Nears a Breakout

 

Sunday, April 12, 2015

 

The S&P 500 index nears the end of a choppy mode which is confined in a 6-week symmetrical triangle pattern. Once it breaks above 2100, the S&P 500 index could make a new high at 2173. Gold and crude oil also near their bullish breakout levels. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 4/20/2015.

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Weakening Market

 

Sunday, April 5, 2015

 

The U.S. stock market weakened after recent disappointing economic data. The mixed signals from our indicators point to a choppy market. The support level of 2040 will be critical for the S&P 500 index, because a breach of 2040 could change the market to a more conservative scenario. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 4/17/2015.

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Choppy Market

 

Sunday, March 29, 2015

 

The U.S. stock market lost momentum when major overseas market indexes like the German DAX, India Bombay index, and Shanghai index got in stalling with topping patterns. The market becomes choppy as it approaches the end of the first quarter and a short week with reporting several important economic data. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 4/2/2015.

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Stocks Resumed Uptrend

 

Sunday, March 22, 2015

 

The U.S. stock market finished the short-term pullback and resumed uptrend last week. The S&P 500 index has started the third upward minor wave which overlaps the third upward intermediate wave for forming a potentially strong U.S. stock market. We would be more cautious about overseas markets now because the German DAX, India Bombay index, and Shanghai index are in topping patterns in the intermediate-term time frame. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 4/2/2015.

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Watch: Triple Witching and FOMC Meeting

 

Sunday, March 15, 2015

 

As the U.S. dollar hits 12-year high and oil slumps to 6-year low, the pullback of the S&P 500 index has retraced to the 60% level of the previous upward minor wave. Our Broad Market Instability Index is above the panic threshold, and the stock market still needs few days of consolidation. The market could be volatile in the coming week with the triple witching and a FOMC meeting. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 3/19/2015.

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Stock Market in Short-Term Correction

 

Sunday, March 8, 2015

 

The stock market fell after strong US jobs data sparked Fed rate hike expectations. The S&P 500 index is developing the second minor wave which is a short-term corrective wave. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond and gold are also falling while the U.S. dollar resumes its uptrend. Our Broad Market Instability Index moved above the panic threshold. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 3/19/2015.

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Stock Market in Consolidation

 

Sunday, March 1, 2015

 

The S&P 500 index has been topping, and it just got into the second minor wave which is a short-term corrective wave. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond and gold could rebound from their recent lows. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 3/13/2015.

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Weak Bonds and Strong Stocks

 

Sunday, February 22, 2015

 

The S&P 500 index made a record high, and it is in the early stage of the intermediate third wave which has a minor five sub-wave sequence. Currently it is near the end of the first minor wave inside the intermediate third wave. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond is still falling from its 1-year Bump-and-Run Reversal Top. The broad stock is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 3/2/2015.

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Stock Market Challenges All-Time High

 

Sunday, February 15, 2015

 

After the bullish reversal on crude oil, the 30-year U.S. treasury bond is falling from its 1-year Bump-and-Run Reversal Top. The S&P 500 terminated its two-month-long flat correction, and started the intermediate impulse third wave to the upside. The broad stock market is breaking from the previous high, and it is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 2/19/2015.

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Bad Omen for General Stock Market

 

Sunday, February 1, 2015

 

Four bearish indications from 1) Santa Claus rally failure, 2) the first five days of the year indicator, 3) the January barometer, and 4) Super Bowl Indicator seem an omen of a bear market for stocks to come in 2015. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 2/5/2015.

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