Latest Market Update

 

Tech and Small-Cap Stocks Regaining Momentum

 

Sunday, December 17, 2017

 

The general stock market closed higher last Friday after it was in a choppy market in a week. The technology sector and the Russell 2000 Small Cap index started regaining momentum to the upside from their recent sharp pullback. The major stock market indexes still behave out of sync with each other. It looks like that tech stocks and small-cap stocks are setting up for a potential rally as “January Effect” but it may cost a pullback from the Dow and S&P 500. The overall market would turn out to be a choppy mode heading into the end of the year. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 1/8/2018.

 

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Markets Out of Sync

 

Sunday, December 10, 2017

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 made another all-time closing high on Friday. But the technology sector has been moving out of sync with either the Dow or S&P 500 since mid-November. The Russell 2000 Small Cap index, one of the reliable “risk-on” indicators, became lagging the market. The general stock market currently seems hard to be measured by a single market index on the overall market, and could be in store for a choppy market heading into the end of the year. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 12/13/2017, then in a bearish time-window right after.

 

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Climbing Stock Market with Weakness in Tech Stocks

 

Sunday, December 3, 2017

 

The general stock market exploded to record highs last week except the technology sector. There was a significant sector rotation from semiconductor stocks to bank stocks. Crude oil maintained staying above a 2-month uptrend line for its bullish course towards an updated price target 62. Silver was bearish as its prices broke below the horizontal support at 16.6 of a 3-week descending triangle pattern. Fueled by the news of that Senate passes their versions on the GOP tax bill, the stock market is likely to extend gains this coming week. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 12/7/2017.

 

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Upside Breakout from Sideways Range

 

Sunday, November 26, 2017

 

The general stock market resumed uptrend last week after it had a sideways market for several weeks. Crude oil is forming a potential bump-and-run top pattern with a current status in the bullish bump phase with fast rising prices following a sharp bump trendline until prices reach a bump height projected at 60. Gold still held above its 1-year uptrend line as the US dollar became bearish after its prices broke below a 2-month uptrend channel. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 12/7/2017.

 

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Extended Sideways in Stock Markets

 

Sunday, November 19, 2017

 

The general stock market continued its sideways move into another week. As the US dollar broke below a 2-month uptrend line, gold held very well above an 11-month uptrend line and silver had a bullish breakout from a 2.5-month descending triangle pattern last Friday. It is very bullish for crude oil to keep up its price above a 4.5-month uptrend channel with a projected price target at 60. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 11/27/2017.

 

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Sideways Markets

 

Sunday, November 12, 2017

 

The stock market moved sideways last week as the market momentum stayed in the negative territory. The US dollar, treasury bound, gold and silver were all weakening except crude oil. Gold is critical to see if its prices can hold above the 1270 level to maintain above the 11-month uptrend line. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 11/27/2017.

 

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Divergence in Stock Markets

 

Sunday, November 5, 2017

 

There is a significant market divergence between moving up in prices of major market indexes and surging in readings of our Broad Market Instability Index (BIX) above the panic threshold last week. Prices of the US treasury bond and gold likely try to rebound again. The crude oil is bullish for an upside price target projected at 59.8. The broad stock market is expected to be sideways this week and projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 11/13/2017.

 

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Bullish Pattern Breakouts of US Dollar and Oil Prices

 

Sunday, October 29, 2017

 

The US dollar had a powerful bullish breakout from a 3-month inverse head-and-shoulders pattern last week and added pressure on gold and silver. Crude oil prices also had a strong advance after a bullish breakout from its 9-month inverse roof pattern. There is a red flag for the stock market as readings of our Broad Market Instability Index (BIX) surged to the panic threshold last Friday. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 11/1/2017.

 

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The US Dollar is Near a Key Level for Trend Changing

 

Sunday, October 22, 2017

 

The major stock indices extend further into record territory last week besides the declining market momentum. Gold, silver, and the US treasury bonds failed to continue their rebound. The indices of the US dollar and crude oil are about to test their upper resistance levels for potential bullish breakouts. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 11/1/2017.

 

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Prices of Gold and Treasury Bond Rebound

 

Sunday, October 15, 2017

 

Readings of our Broad Market Instability Index (BIX) started rising and the stock market momentum remained low last week. Prices of gold and the US treasury bonds resumed their upward moves. Crude oil formed a partial decline which is a bullish sign for a potential breakout from the upper resistance near 52. The broad stock market is expected to have a short-term pullback, and is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 10/27/2017.

 

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The Stock Market in Overbought Condition

 

Sunday, October 8, 2017

 

The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 extend further into record territory last week. The stock market is in a short-term overbought condition with an alert of dramatically reducing market momentum last Friday. Gold and precious metals stocks formed bullish reversal candlestick patterns for a potential rebound while crude oil pulled back sharply for lower prices. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 10/25/2017.

 

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Rising Market Optimism for Tax-Cut Hopes

 

Sunday, October 1, 2017

 

Much influenced by the Trump tax-cut plan last week, market sentiment again reached an extreme greed level of optimism but somehow it contradicted the prospect of our wave analysis for the market. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index continued leading the stock market higher. Prices of gold and the US treasury bonds were under selling pressure. The US dollar bounced off its 32-month low and approached a critical point to test its 7-month downtrend line. An upward breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern turned crude oil bullish for higher prices. The broad stock market is expected to be generally rangebound this coming week, and it is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 10/20/2017.

 

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Divergent Market Calls for a Higher Level of Caution

 

Sunday, September 24, 2017

 

Last week small-cap stocks did better than the rest of the market, and the Russell 2000 Index closed at record high with the biggest weekly gain. However, the NASDAQ 100 Index kept sliding last week, and the technology sector was dragged down by a poor performance in Apple stock. Wave analysis suggests that the market is going through a transition period from bullish to bearish. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 10/16/2017.

 

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Be Cautious in this Market

 

Sunday, September 17, 2017

 

The Dow and S&P 500 closed at record high last week while investor sentiment reached an extreme greed level of optimism. The market focus will turn to Federal Reserve’s “biggest meeting of the year” for its policy setting this coming week. As US inflation hits seven-month high, the central bank is expected to rise interest rates and start trimming its $4.5 trillion portfolio. Stocks and other risky assets could come under selling pressure amid Fed’s asset unwinding. Technical analysis suggests that the short-term time-window of the broad stock market is about to turn from bullish to bearish. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 10/5/2017.

 

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Market Volatility Needs to be Watched Closely

 

Sunday, September 10, 2017

 

Readings of the Broad Market Instability Index (BIX) went up again last week but the index is still below the panic threshold level. The Wilshire 5000 index is above the 89-day exponential moving average, and the momentum is positive. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 9/12/2017.

 

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The Stock Market Bounced Back Toward Records

 

Sunday, September 3, 2017

 

The general stock market regained momentum towards the upside and the market volatility reduced back to a normal level last week. Biotech, Precious Metals, and Internet were the top outperforming sectors. Gold is in a bullish move with breaking above 1300 which is the upper resistance level of a 6-month horizontal channel. Silver is also in a powerful advance from a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 9/14/2017.

 

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Stock Market Bounced from an Oversold Condition

 

Saturday, August 26, 2017

 

Last week the general stock market bounced from a short-term oversold condition. The Russell 2000 was leading the rebound while the Dow was lagging. Readings of our Broad Market Instability Index retreated below the panic threshold, and the market momentum returned to the positive territory. Prices of gold faces a resistance from the upper boundary of its 6-month horizontal trading range, and prices of crude oil look for a support at the lower boundary of a 2-month ascending broadening wedge. The broad stock market is turning from neutral to bullish, and is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 9/7/2017.

 

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Market Volatility Surged to 9-Month Highs

 

Sunday, August 13, 2017

 

The volatility came back to the market last week, and readings of our Broad Market Instability Index surged to 100 which is the highest level after the last November presidential election. The stock market is having mild consolidation right below record highs. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 8/16/2017.

 

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Short-Term Oversold Market

 

Sunday, August 20, 2017

 

The Wilshire 5000 index, an average or a benchmark of the total market, has crossed below its 89-day exponential moving average first time since the last November presidential election. Readings of our Broad Market Instability Index continued surging to 116 last week, and the stock market traded in oversold territory. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 8/25/2017.

 

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Market Volatility Surged to 9-Month Highs

 

Sunday, August 13, 2017

 

The volatility came back to the market last week, and readings of our Broad Market Instability Index surged to 100 which is the highest level after the last November presidential election. The stock market is having mild consolidation right below record highs. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 8/16/2017.

 

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Divergent Market

 

Sunday, August 6, 2017

 

Last market update noted that we have a divergent market with strong large capital stocks and weak small capital stocks as the US dollar dipped. The market divergence intensified during last week when the dollar hit a 15-month low. The Dow blue chip stocks climbed ever higher while the Russell 2000 small capital stocks declined sharply. However, last Friday the dollar had biggest one-day gain so far this year on strong US jobs data. This huge rebound makes a potential bullish reversal for the dollar and a possible transition of strength from the large cap stocks to small cap stocks. Readings of the Broad Market Instability Index has surged to 50s which is above the panic threshold. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 8/14/2017.

 

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Watch Out For Market Volatility Flickering Back

 

Sunday, July 30, 2017

 

The short-term time-window of the general stock market turned from bullish to bearish last week. Readings of the Broad Market Instability index started increasing and market volatility rebounded from historic lows. We have a divergent market with strong large capital stocks and weak small capital stocks as the US dollar dipped to near 13-month lows. The wave pattern forecast suggests mild consolidation ahead for the general stock market. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 8/14/2017.

 

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Time to Turn Cautious on the Markets

 

Sunday, July 23, 2017

 

The stock market stalled as the Dow and S&P 500 made record high last week. The wave pattern forecast for the general stock market suggests an inflection point during this week and mild consolidation ahead. The US dollar traded near lowest levels in more than a year, and prices may form a dip soon for a profit opportunity from the long side. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until midweek 7/26/2017, and in a bearish time-window right after.

 

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Dow and S&P 500 Closed at Record High

 

Sunday, July 16, 2017

 

The broad stock market broke upward from its 5-week horizontal trading range as the Dow and S&P 500 closed at record high last Friday. Most outperforming sectors are Home Construction, Internet, and Biotech while most underperforming sectors are Telecommunication, Oil Equipment, and Precious Metals. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 7/26/2017.

 

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The US Dollar Might be Due for a Rebound

 

Sunday, July 9, 2017

 

Last week the 30-year U.S. treasury bond, gold, and silver broke sharply downward corresponding to their technical patterns while the U.S. dollar was waiting for a rebound. Crude oil failed to continue its 2-week-long rally, and formed a bearish partial rising. The general stock market still traded in a narrow horizontal trading range as Home Construction, Banks, and Biotech sectors outperformed. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 7/24/2017.

 

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The General Stock Market in a Narrow Trading Range

 

Sunday, July 2, 2017

 

Crude oil had a nice bounce last week while gold and silver still waited for rebound. The Wilshire 5000 index has been in a narrow horizontal trading range for a month. Our Broad Market Instability Index remained low corresponding to a choppy stock market but low volatility. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 7/7/2017.

 

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Stocks: Negative Momentum But Low Volatility

 

Sunday, June 25, 2017

 

Although the stock market momentum was negative, our Broad Market Instability Index remained below the panic threshold corresponding to a choppy market but low volatility. Crude oil, gold, and silver are due for a bounce from their recent lows. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 6/27/2017.

 

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Stocks Momentum Weakening

 

Sunday, June 18, 2017

 

Our Broad Market Instability Index started to jump up last week, and the momentum of the stock market weakened. Crude oil, gold, and silver slid down further last week, and they are expected to bounce possibly around the middle of this week. The 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond breached the upper boundary of its inverted roof pattern which may have a tricky move in the price. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 6/27/2017.

 

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Alert from a Big Dow-Nasdaq Divergence

 

Sunday, June 11, 2017

 

It is a warning sign for the stock market that the technology sector plunged last Friday as the mega-cap “FAANG” stocks Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google led the selloff. The Nasdaq 100 Index declined 2.44% while the Dow surged 0.42% to a record high, that marks one of the biggest daily divergences between the two key indexes since the general election last November. Gold and silver also formed bearish partial ring patterns last week. The Fed meeting next week is expected to raise interest rates. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 6/27/2017.

 

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Stocks Bullish ahead of UK Election

 

Sunday, June 4, 2017

 

The S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq post record close last week. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 6/8/2017 which is coincident with the date of the UK general election this year. The outcome of the election would impact the market volatility.

 

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A Short Bullish Time-Window

 

Sunday, May 28, 2017

 

The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 6/8/2017. However this market may have a reversal early any time from now.

 

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Volatility Jumped Up

 

Sunday, May 21, 2017

 

The stock market became volatile last week. Crude oil and gold rebound sharply as the US dollar had a bearish breakdown from its 6-month falling wedge pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 5/25/2017.

 

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Watch for Volatility

 

Sunday, May 14, 2017

 

Readings of our Broad Market Instability Index danced around the panic threshold, and the stock market momentum stayed in the negative territory last week. Crude oil, gold, and the US dollar started to rebound. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 5/25/2017.

 

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Prepare for Rising Volatility

 

Sunday, May 7, 2017

 

As the general stock market stayed on the high of a short-term cycle, readings of our Broad Market Instability Index crossed over the panic threshold once last week. This is a warning sign for increasing market volatility. Crude oil, gold, and silver are near a rebound. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 5/25/2017.

 

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NASDAQ Leading

 

Sunday, April 30, 2017

 

The stock market was strong last week especially for wireless communication, internet, and technology sectors. The NASDAQ Composite Index hit a new record high while the Dow and S&P 500 lagged behind. Readings of our Broad Market Instability Index rose to double digits, and the momentum of the general stock market got weak. The hammered down US dollar, gold, silver, and crude oil near a rebound. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 5/5/2017.

 

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Mixed Picture in Stock Market

 

Sunday, April 23, 2017

 

The general stock market has a mixed picture with relative strong S&P 500 index and relative weak Dow Jones Industrial Average index. The daily MACD of the SPX suggests accumulation but the weekly MACD shows mark-down. The Chinese stock market has increasing risk for a significant decline as the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index breaks below its 15-month uptrend line. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 4/26/2017.

 

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Stock Market Negative Momentum

 

Sunday, April 16, 2017

 

The S&P 500 index closed at a two-month low last Thursday with negative momentum, and started an intermediate downward wave. Breaking below the level of 2330, the SPX may find a support around 2290. Gold, silver, and precious metal stocks have been strengthened. The 30-year US Treasury Bond is going to test the resistance level of 153 for a potential upside breakout. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 4/28/2017.

 

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A Market Inflection Point May be Near

 

Sunday, April 9, 2017

 

The broad stock market moved sideways last week, and still maintained a lower-high and lower-low pattern. Crude oil continued its advance sharply. The short-term bullish time-window of the broad stock market is projected to end by 4/12/2017, followed by a short-term bearish time-window right after.

 

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Stock Market Turned Bullish in Short-Term

 

Monday, April 3, 2017

 

The Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total market, has been forming lower high and lower low for last five weeks. This is a sign for weakness. The market is expected to be choppy for this week. Crude oil broke above the neckline of a “W” pattern and had a big bounce last week. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 4/12/2017.

 

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High Anxiety in Stock Market

 

Sunday, March 26, 2017

 

The stock market became anxious as a new healthcare bill to repeal and replace Obamacare was pulled from vote last Friday. The momentum of the market remained negative although our Broad Market Instability index turned below the panic threshold level. A potential inverse head-and-shoulders formation of gold indicates gold is on the verge of a bullish chart breakout while the US dollar faces a potential downward breakout from a bearish head-and-shoulders top. The crude oil is forming a potential double-bottom pattern, and could have a bounce if prices find a support at the level of 47.75. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term extended neutral time-window until 4/5/2017.

 

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Gold Resumed Upward Bounce as US Dollar Weakened

 

Sunday, March 19, 2017

 

Gold, silver, and precious metals stocks resumed their upward bounce and formed an inverse head-and-shoulder pattern having a bullish bias as the US dollar continued to weaken. The broad stock market has been in a short-term bearish time-window for about three weeks, and now a choppy market is expected for a projected short-term neutral time-window until 3/23/2017.

 

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Bearish Signs Remain for Stock Market

 

Sunday, March 12, 2017

 

There were bearish signs for the stock market with negative readings of the Lead-Wave Index and readings of the Broad Market Instability Index above the panic threshold level last week. Attention will be on the Fed’s meeting in this coming week. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 3/17/2017.

 

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Short-Term Bearish Technical Picture

 

Sunday, March 5, 2017

 

The readings of our Broad Market Instability Index continued to rise, and were very close to the panic threshold level last Friday. The momentum of the stock market has become negative. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 3/20/2017.

 

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Safe Haven Assets Returning

 

Sunday, February 26, 2017

 

Gold price broke above its 6-month downtrend line last week, and entered into the uprun phase of its Bump-and-Run Reversal Bottom pattern. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond has been in a narrow trading range for 3 months and it is waiting for a breakout from the range. The readings of our Broad Market Instability Index are rising and approaching the panic threshold level. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 3/17/2017.

 

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The Market is Very Overbought

 

Sunday, February 19, 2017

 

The general stock market continued to advance to a new high last week. The major indexes become very overbought, and the market momentum is losing steam. Gold is testing its 6-month downtrend line for a potential intermediate-trend change. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond has been in a narrow trading range for 3 months and it is waiting for a breakout from the range. Crude oil is forming a 2.5-month ascending triangle pattern and waiting for a breakout too. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 3/14/2017.

 

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Gold Faces a Challenge for Intermediate Trend Change

 

Sunday, February 12, 2017

 

During last two weeks, gold, silver, and precious metals stocks continued to rebound from their bullish reversal of late December. The intermediate trend of silver has become bullish after prices broke above a 4-month downtrend line. Gold now faces a challenge from its 6-month downtrend line for an intermediate-trend change. The 30-year US treasury bond is in a trading range between 149 and 153 before the next breakout. The general stock market continued to advance to a new high. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 2/15/2017.

 

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Risk Increasing with Stock Market Advances

 

Sunday, January 29, 2017

 

The broad stock market advanced to a new high last week after it stayed in a five-week sideways market. However, our Leading-Wave index became bearish in the first time since mid-November. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 2/8/2017.

 

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Weeks-Long Flat Market Waiting for a Big Move

 

Sunday, January 22, 2017

 

A sideways market for stocks went to a fifth week as the market momentum became negative. Pharmaceuticals, biotech, and healthcare sectors mostly underperformed the general market. Markets are due for a big move, and it is time to prepare for the return of volatility. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 2/9/2017.

 

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Gold Gained for Third-Straight Week

 

Sunday, January 15, 2017

 

Gold rose for a third-straight week as the U.S. dollar retreated. The general stock market has been nearly flat for about four weeks except the Nasdaq index had a nice advance to all-time highs. The Chinese stocks weakened, and the Shanghai Composite index slipped to a critical juncture near 3100 having a potential risk of breaking below an 1-year uptrend line. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 1/20/2017, and thereafter a bearish time-window.

 

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Gold Bounced for Second Straight Week

 

Sunday, January 8, 2017

 

Gold advanced sharply last week after it had a bullish reversal from an intermediate bump bottom. The US dollar was unable to break above the 103.5 level, and formed a bearish reversal top as prices broke below a 2.5-month bump trendline. Having a rally in the first two days in January to fully recover the loss in the last five days in December, the general stock market made slightly positive during the seven-day period of a so-called Santa Claus rally time. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 1/13/2017.

 

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Stock Market Pulled Back and Gold Bounced

 

Sunday, January 1, 2017

 

While the US dollar hit a bump and retreated, gold had a bounce as prices broke above a bump trendline. The momentum of the general stock market continued fading for the third week. The period within the last five days of the year and the first two in January is typical time for a Santa Claus rally. However, last week Santa failed to show in the market. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 1/13/2017.

 

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Post-Election Rally Pauses just below Record Highs

 

Monday, December 26, 2016

 

It raises a caution flag that the general stock market has stalled near record highs with weakening momentum for two weeks. The market is going to test whether a Santa Claus rally can occur within this week and the next week. Due to an overrun of the post-election surge already, there may be not much left for a Santa Claus rally this year. Gold hits a bump and could have a bounce if prices breach a bump trendline. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 1/11/2017.

 

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Bullish and Cautious about the Stock Market

 

Sunday, December 18, 2016

 

The momentum of the S&P 500 index weakened after Fed’s interest rate hike last week. The Russian, Japanese and German stock markets outperformed, but the Chinese stock market continued to slide down. The US dollar is in a chart pattern of a potential Bump and Run Reversal Top while gold develops a potential Bump and Run Reversal Bottom. The 30-year US Treasury Bond continued its decline and was very near the projected downside price target of 147. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 12/22/2016.

 

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Stock Market Rally ahead of Fed Meeting

 

Sunday, December 11, 2016

 

Last week incredibly positive market reaction on the outcome of the Italian referendum turned the German DAX index into a bullish intermediate upward wave. It also boosted the Dow and S&P 500 to all-time record high closes, except the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index showed a bearish sign for an intermediate-term correction. The 30-year US Treasury Bond is still in a downtrend towards the price target of 147. Crude oil and gold are near chart pattern breakout points. The financial markets most likely have priced in interest rate hike of this week’s Fed meeting. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 12/15/2016.

 

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Momentum Fading for Stock Market

 

Sunday, December 4, 2016

 

The general stock market was losing momentum especially technology stocks fell sharply on heavy selling last week. Crude oil and energy stocks skyrocketed as OPEC confirmed deal to cut production. Gold, silver and precious metal stocks started to bounce after they got oversold. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 12/15/2016.

 

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Strong Stock Market in an Expended Flat

 

Sunday, November 27, 2016

 

It is a long-term bullish sign that the monthly MACD histogram of the S&P 500 index became positive last week. Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the S&P 500 index is in an expended flat pattern with [A]-[B]-[C] primary corrective waves. Currently upward wave [B] is running beyond the beginning of downward wave [A] in last year as in an expanded flat to reflect a strong market. However, there is downward primary wave [C] ahead once current upward wave [B] ends. Gold and silver are due for a bounce when prices get a support from the lower boundary of their intermediate descending broadening wedge patterns. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 12/15/2016.

 

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Stock Market at a Critical Juncture

 

Sunday, November 20, 2016

 

A long-term technical picture suggests that the stock market reaches a critical juncture as the monthly MACD histogram of the S&P 500 index is approaching the zero line after it has stayed in the negative territory for near two years. Once the histogram gets into the positive territory, we would have a bull market going forward. Otherwise, a bear market would return if the histogram deeps into the negative territory again. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 11/22/2016.

 

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Up Stock Market with Significant Sector Divergence

 

Sunday, November 13, 2016

 

The election surprise and the market-reaction surprise sent the Dow Jones industrial average to record highs with its best weekly performance since December 2011. The general stock market showed a strong divergence between sector winners and losers. In post-election sector performances, banks, financials, biotech, pharmaceuticals, healthcare, industrials and materials sectors were major winners. Precious metals, utilities, real estate, and technology sectors were major losers. There is an uncomfortable sign of broadening wedge patterns with either ascending or descending developed in the charts of the treasury bond, gold/silver, and S&P 500 index. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 11/22/2016.

 

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Volatile Market Ahead of the Election

 

Sunday, November 6, 2016

 

The stock market became volatile and the Broad Market Instability index surged up to eight month high last week. The S&P 500 index broke below 2120 which is the lower horizontal support line of a bearish 2-month descending triangle pattern, and triggered a short-term downward wave. The recent most underperformed sectors are biotech, telecommunication, and pharmaceuticals. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 11/10/2016.

 

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