Latest Market Update

Broad Stock Market Correction Continues

Saturday, April 12, 2014

As the complex correction of 2014 continues to extend, the S&P 500 index tumbles into a new A-B-C corrective pattern right after the short-lived X wave. The biotech and internet sectors lead the stock market lower. The Broad Market Instability index (BIX) surging above the panic threshold and the major U.S. stock market indices dropping below the 89-day exponential moving average are both very bearish indications.

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Elliott Wave X Suggests Extending Sideways Market

Sunday, April 6, 2014

The upward wave, which pushed the S&P 500 index up to a new record high early last week, is characterized as Elliott Wave X, a wave linking two corrective patterns. Right after wave X, another new A-B-C corrective pattern is expected. It would extend the current intermediate-term corrective wave into complex sideways corrections. Currently we have a mixture of a bullish sign from the Leading Wave Index (LWX) and a bearish sign from the negative momentum.

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Complex Corrections Pose a Challenge to Bulls & Bears

Sunday, March 30, 2014

The intermediate-term correction of the broad stock market continues in a sideways market. The minor C wave in the S&P 500 index was trapped in a 4-week symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting that the current intermediate-term correction could face complexity in a potential extending sideways market if we see an upward minor X wave in the next couple of weeks. The broad stock market should be nearing the end of the short-term neutral time-window.

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Sideways Markets with Sector Leadership Changes

Sunday, March 23, 2014

The broad stock market went nowhere except into a choppy mode during the last two or three weeks, while the US dollar and US treasury were bounded in their recent trading ranges. We have a mixture of a bullish sign from the low readings of the Broad Market Instability Index (BIX) and a bearish sign from the negative momentum. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until it escapes from a sideways market. There is a shadow casting on the stock market from the Biotech, Internet, and Home Construction sectors having recently lost their market leaderships which they maintained for several months. We should be cautious while this market lacks a consistent leadership from leading sectors.

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Expanded Flat Correction in Progress

Sunday, March 16, 2014

As the Russian and Brazilian stock markets tumble to their 52-week lows, the broad stock market continues its intermediate-term Expanded Flat correction. Gold resumed its advance after a three-week pause and approaches our upside price target. Silver is possibly near a major bullish breakout. The precious metals sector is outperforming other sectors. A short-term bearish time-window for the broad stock market is projected to last until …

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Broad Stock Market in an Expanded Flat

Sunday, March 9, 2014

The chart patterns for the S&P 500 index, German DAX index, gold/silver, crude oil, U.S. treasury, and U.S. dollar are either in consolidations or expanded flat corrections. This week’s powerful bullish chart comes from the India Bombay Stock Exchange Index with a major bullish breakout from its 6-year ascending triangle pattern at a record high. It makes the Indian stock market significantly outstanding from other emerging markets in a downward spiral like China, Brazil, and Russia. DBA Agriculture ETF is fast approaching the upside price target after a major bullish breakout from a 3-year falling wedge pattern.

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Bulls are Headed towards a Red Light

Sunday, March 2, 2014

Bulls are running out of time to push the market higher as the short-term time-window is about to turn bearish for the broad stock market. A sell-off would be triggered when the S&P 500 index crosses below 1850. A short-term bearish time-window is projected to last until …

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Time to be Cautious on the Market

Sunday, February 23, 2014

The broad stock market has had a throwback to the previous high with Wave B, and it approaches another key market juncture. In the short-term, bulls have limited time to push the market higher as the short-term bullish time-window nears its end. In this week’s report, two interesting international market charts have been added, one for the German DAX Index and another for the Shanghai Composite Index, to expand our coverage to major global markets. A chart of the DBA Agriculture ETF is also included to track a potential major breakout.

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Gold/Silver in Intermediate-Term Recovery

Sunday, February 16, 2014

Gold, silver, and their mining stocks all had a powerful breakout from their major technical resistance last week. As a “safe haven” currency, the strengthening Japanese yen this year has had a magic “Butterfly Effect” to entail gold/silver sector. In this report, a new chart of the Japanese yen is added with an Elliott Wave analysis. The broad stock market is in upward wave B which is the middle part of an intermediate correction.

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GDX Bullish Breakout from 10-Month Falling Wedge

Monday, February 10, 2014

Today, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) had a powerful upward breakout from its 10-month falling wedge pattern. Together with a breakaway gap and an one-day 3.3% advance, the bullish breakout of the falling wedge puts GDX on a launch pad. A $29 price target is projected for GDX. This price target implies a potential 20% gain measured from the breakout price.

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Is This Intermediate Correction Bottoming Out?

Sunday, February 9, 2014

Last week the Broad Market Instability Index had a major spike at 344, which is the highest since May 21, 2012. The major stock market indexes experienced volatile moves in both a big one-day drop and a big one-day rebound during the week. Our initial downside price target 1740 for the S&P 500 index has been reached. Whether the correction is bottoming out or still going down to 1640 will be discussed in this market update. The Elliott wave analysis suggests that this intermediate correction may last longer than you think.

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The Stock Market in an Intermediate Correction

Monday, February 3, 2014

The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX) surged up to 20-month high today. The Wilshire 5000 index decisively broke through the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89) to the downside, and had another sharp decline in 2014. TLT, the 20-year U.S. treasury bond ETF, had a bullish breakout from the neckline of its “W” or double-bottom pattern. The short-term bearish time-window for the broad stock market could extend through this week. Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the S&P 500 index still has more room to fall.

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The Broad Stock Market at a Critical Point

Sunday, February 2, 2014

As the stock markets of Russia, Brazil, China, Hong Kong, Japan, and UK went under water, the Wilshire 5000 index closed January on a negative note. The January Barometer gives a cautious sign for the market in 2014. The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX) has breached the panic threshold and has surged up to 7-month high. For last 5 trading days, the Wilshire 5000 index has chopped right above the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). The U.S. stock market is at a critical point to test if it holds above the EMA89 or breaks it down for immediately further decline.

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