Latest Market Update

Stock Markets Failed to Bounce Higher

Sunday, July 26, 2015

Analysis from daily, weekly and monthly charts of the S&P 500 index gives early warning signs of a potential new bear market. Our Broad Market Instability index surged up above 200 last week alerting for higher risk in stock markets in general. The recent bounce of the Shanghai stock index has met a resistance at the 89-day exponential moving average near 4100 and failed to advance further. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 8/7/2015.

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Stock Markets Continue to Bounce Higher

Sunday, July 19, 2015

Led by the Tokyo Nikkei index, the major world stock markets including the S&P 500 index, Shanghai index, and German DAX continue to bounce towards the upside. The gold index broke below the key support level of 1150, and a selloff was triggered. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 7/27/2015.

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Markets Bouncing

Sunday, July 12, 2015

The Chinese stock market had a very volatile week and reversed with the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index bouncing back from just over 3400 to about 3900. There is a limited time-window and a big challenge for this bounce. The S&P 500 index and German DAX are in a transition from a corrective wave to an upward wave. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 7/15/2015, and to turn into a bullish time-window right after.

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Broad Market Instability Rising

Sunday, July 5, 2015

The Chines stock market sharply declined three weeks in a row and it has plunged 28% from its multi-year high. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index approaches 3600 which is expected to be the first level of defense against free-fall. The S&P 500 index and German DAX have been under the shadow of the Greece debt crisis. Our Broad Market Instability indicator has surged above the panic threshold. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 7/15/2015.

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Markets in Holding Mode ahead of Greek Resolution

Sunday, June 28, 2015

The S&P 500 index and German DAX are in holding mode with the uncertainty of Greek resolution. Following the warning sign we observed from a dangerous ending diagonal pattern on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index, the Chinese stock market had a 20% plunge over the last two weeks and it could decline more. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 7/2/2015.

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SPX and DAX with Elliott Wave Bullish Bias

Sunday, June 21, 2015

The S&P 500 index (SPX) accumulates energy for next breakout while the treasury bonds build up a bullish bias. The German DAX is ending its two-month-long correction and is likely to resume its uptrend. The Chinese stock market had a dramatic bearish reversal last week, and it turns into a major correction. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 7/2/2015.

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Cautious Market with Fed Meeting and Triple Witching

Sunday, June 14, 2015

The inverse relationship between stocks and interest rates plays an important rule to the current stock market. This week’s U.S. central bank’s policy meeting will be the focus of financial markets. The market could be volatile also with the triple witching nears. There is still at least one more upside push left for the stock market before the Fed raises interest rates this year. The broad stock market is about to turn into a short-term bullish time-window and is projected to be in the bullish time-window until 6/25/2015.

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Weakness in Both Stocks and Bonds

Sunday, June 7, 2015

The U.S. stock market, U.S. treasury bond and U.S. dollar are likely bearish in the coming week. The Indian stock market is breaching a critical support, and the Chinese stock market is building up a dangerous ending diagonal pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 6/15/2015.

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Stocks Likely to Weaken in June

Sunday, May 31, 2015

The U.S. stock market is still in a flat correction and is likely to further weaken in June. The German DAX is in its intermediate fourth-wave correction. The Chinese stock market is forming a dangerous ending diagonal pattern which implies a dramatic decline ahead. The crude oil forms a bullish measured move up pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 6/15/2015.

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Choppy Market

Monday, May 25, 2015

The S&P 500 index is in a choppy mode, and the stock market is likely to weaken further in June. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 6/2/2015.

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Market Topping Process

Sunday, May 10, 2015

The S&P 500 index has been in a 2-month flat correction and it is waiting for a breakout from its 10-week ascending triangle pattern. The Chinese stock market turned into a major correction with the primary second wave, and the Indian stock market rolled over after a major bearish reversal. The German DAX index has been in a correction with the intermediate fourth wave. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 5/12/2015.

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Bearish Signs in Financial Markets

Sunday, May 3, 2015

A bearish sign appears as the S&P 500 index nears the end of its 6-year rising wedge. The U.S. dollar has formed a bump-and-run reversal top, and the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond also has a bearish sign with a partial rising inside a 9-month ascending broadening wedge. The Indian stock market has formed a major bearish reversal, and the German DAX index has been in an intermediate correction. Readings of the Broad Market Instability index are rising. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 5/14/2015.

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Stock Market Cautious

Sunday, April 26, 2015

The U.S. stock market is neutral, and the S&P 500 index is waiting for a breakout from an 8-week ascending triangle pattern. The German DAX index gets into a correction, and the Indian Bombay index has a bearish reversal while the Chinese Shanghai index is in the last up leg before a major correction. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 4/30/2015.

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Choppy Market Continues

Saturday, April 18, 2015

The S&P 500 index was unable to break above 2100, and it returned into a 7-week symmetrical triangle pattern to continue a choppy mode. Crude oil had a bullish breakout from a 3-month double bottoms pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 5/4/2015.

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Market Nears a Breakout

Sunday, April 12, 2015

The S&P 500 index nears the end of a choppy mode which is confined in a 6-week symmetrical triangle pattern. Once it breaks above 2100, the S&P 500 index could make a new high at 2173. Gold and crude oil also near their bullish breakout levels. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 4/20/2015.

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Weakening Market

Sunday, April 5, 2015

The U.S. stock market weakened after recent disappointing economic data. The mixed signals from our indicators point to a choppy market. The support level of 2040 will be critical for the S&P 500 index, because a breach of 2040 could change the market to a more conservative scenario. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 4/17/2015.

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Choppy Market

Sunday, March 29, 2015

The U.S. stock market lost momentum when major overseas market indexes like the German DAX, India Bombay index, and Shanghai index got in stalling with topping patterns. The market becomes choppy as it approaches the end of the first quarter and a short week with reporting several important economic data. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 4/2/2015.

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Stocks Resumed Uptrend

Sunday, March 22, 2015

The U.S. stock market finished the short-term pullback and resumed uptrend last week. The S&P 500 index has started the third upward minor wave which overlaps the third upward intermediate wave for forming a potentially strong U.S. stock market. We would be more cautious about overseas markets now because the German DAX, India Bombay index, and Shanghai index are in topping patterns in the intermediate-term time frame. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 4/2/2015.

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Watch: Triple Witching and FOMC Meeting

Sunday, March 15, 2015

As the U.S. dollar hits 12-year high and oil slumps to 6-year low, the pullback of the S&P 500 index has retraced to the 60% level of the previous upward minor wave. Our Broad Market Instability Index is above the panic threshold, and the stock market still needs few days of consolidation. The market could be volatile in the coming week with the triple witching and a FOMC meeting. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 3/19/2015.

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Stock Market in Short-Term Correction

Sunday, March 8, 2015

The stock market fell after strong US jobs data sparked Fed rate hike expectations. The S&P 500 index is developing the second minor wave which is a short-term corrective wave. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond and gold are also falling while the U.S. dollar resumes its uptrend. Our Broad Market Instability Index moved above the panic threshold. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 3/19/2015.

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Stock Market in Consolidation

Sunday, March 1, 2015

The S&P 500 index has been topping, and it just got into the second minor wave which is a short-term corrective wave. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond and gold could rebound from their recent lows. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 3/13/2015.

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Weak Bonds and Strong Stocks

Sunday, February 22, 2015

The S&P 500 index made a record high, and it is in the early stage of the intermediate third wave which has a minor five sub-wave sequence. Currently it is near the end of the first minor wave inside the intermediate third wave. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond is still falling from its 1-year Bump-and-Run Reversal Top. The broad stock is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 3/2/2015.

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Stock Market Challenges All-Time High

Sunday, February 15, 2015

After the bullish reversal on crude oil, the 30-year U.S. treasury bond is falling from its 1-year Bump-and-Run Reversal Top. The S&P 500 terminated its two-month-long flat correction, and started the intermediate impulse third wave to the upside. The broad stock market is breaking from the previous high, and it is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 2/19/2015.

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Reversals: Bullish Oil and Bearish Bond

Sunday, February 8, 2015

Last week crude oil had a bullish reversal from it 6-month Bump and Run Reversal Bottom while the 30-year U.S. treasury bond had a bearish reversal from an 1-year Bump and Run Reversal Top. The German DAX index is in an advance of the third intermediate wave, and the S&P 500 index is still in a flat correction with the second intermediate wave. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 2/12/2015.

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Bad Omen for General Stock Market

Sunday, February 1, 2015

Four bearish indications from 1) Santa Claus rally failure, 2) the first five days of the year indicator, 3) the January barometer, and 4) Super Bowl Indicator seem an omen of a bear market for stocks to come in 2015. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 2/5/2015.

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