Latest Market Update

Bullish Reversal in Gold and Silver

Sunday, February 7, 2016

While the US dollar had a bearish reversal signal last week, gold and silver got bullish and broke to the upside from a falling wedge pattern and an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern respectively. Precious metal stocks have been outperforming the market. As stocks struggled to a bear market rally, the Broad Market Instability Index (BIX) crossed above the panic threshold again. Based on the forecast of the Leading-Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 2/12/2016, followed by a bearish time-window.

GOLD 2-5-2016 (Weekly)

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Shadow of Negative January

Sunday, January 31, 2016

The month of January comes to a close with a terrible performance of the stock market. The S&P 500 index lost 5.07%, and it is now 8.94% below its all time high. Biotech, banks, and internet sectors were most heavily sold off and almost every sector had losses, except precious metals, telecommunication, and utilities sectors. The end of January triggers something called the January Barometer, i.e., as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year. Seeing as the month ended on such a negative note, this could be a bad omen for stock market in the rest of the year. A surprise move on Friday from the Bank of Japan to cut interest rates below zero sparked a rally in stocks. Based on the forecast of the Leading-Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 2/8/2016.

Sector Performance January 2016

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Remarkably Similar to the Stock Market In 2008

Sunday, January 24, 2016

When it comes to the first three week behavior of the stock market, 2016 looks very similar to 2008. With a worse opening week, the S&P 500 index continuously declined in the first three weeks for both years, and plunged 9.03% in 2016 and 10.75% in 2008. Afterwards, the stock market rebounded. This similarity reminds us of the crisis we had in 2008, and it is a warning flag for a serious challenge in the stock market this year. Based on the forecast of the Leading-Wave Index (LWX), the broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 2/8/2016. We may see a rebound going in the next couple of weeks, but it may not be more than a bear market rally.

SPX 2008 vs 2016

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Volatile Market Going Oversold

Sunday, January 17, 2016

Beginning this year, the broad stock market has become very volatile. Market volatility, as measured by the Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), surged dramatically during the last two weeks from 4 to a level of 882 which is the highest reading in four and a half years. As prices dropped below the low of last August, the Wilshire 5000 index lost 8.66% year to date. Beginning a new year with such a large scale decline is regarded as a very bad omen for the direction of the stock market in 2016. In the short-term, the broad stock market is projected to be in a bearish time-window until 1/20/2016, and the oversold market could rebound anytime during the following week.

Market Instability 1-15-2016

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Worst Opening Week Ever

Sunday, January 10, 2016

Led by sharp stocks decline in the major emerging markets like China, Russia, and Brazil, global stock markets ended their worst opening week we have ever seen. Counting on the first five trading days, the S&P 500 index dropped 5.96% this year, which is worse than the 5.3% loss for the bad year in 2008. Our Broad Market Instability Index (BIX) surged to 390 last Friday. The SPX and German DAX are in the mid-way of an intermediate downward wave, and are most likely to test the August low. The Shanghai Composite index is nearing a breakdown on a bearish head-and-shoulders top pattern which could result in another 1000-point falling. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 1/20/2016.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Buckle Up for Market Turbulence in 2016

Sunday, January 3, 2016

The general stock market finished its 2015 with a lackluster performance. This shouldn’t be any surprise to us, since we had seen a bad omen earlier last year from several bearish indications such as Santa Claus rally failure, poor first five trading days of the year, and negative January performance. The stock market has been in a bear market since last August. The Santa Claus rally we just had this time in December was just a very weak bear market rally. The Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the market is heading towards south with downward waves in both long-term and mid-term. We are in a bear market, buckle up!

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Bullish Tone Ahead of the Year End

Sunday, December 27, 2015

A bullish reversal on the general stock market last week set up a bullish tone for stocks ahead of the year-end. The Broad Market Instability index (BIX) decreased below the panic threshold, and the S&P 500 index got in a short-term upward wave with a bullish momentum. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 1/11/2016. Hopefully, the Santa Claus rally will last all the way through New Year’s Day.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Roller Coaster Markets

Sunday, December 20, 2015

Fed interest rate hike for the first time in nearly a decade last week set financial markets on a roller coaster ride. The stock market was very volatile and our Broad Market Instability Index (BIX) stayed above the panic threshold. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 12/24/2015, followed by a bullish time-window afterwards. The market may have a bullish reversal early anytime before 12/24/2015, to expect a Santa Claus Rally which the price of stocks often surge in the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Volatile Waves to the Downside

Sunday, December 13, 2015

Last week a selloff in the broad market was triggered by the oil price plunge, and stocks suffered heavy losses in volatile trading. Elliott Wave analysis indicates that the stock market is very bearish in current downward waves of all three time-frames in the long-, middle-, and short-term. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 12/24/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Bearish Sings in Bullish Season

Sunday, December 6, 2015

As the general stock market changed direction back and forth rapidly last week, our Broad Market Instability Index (BIX) surged above the panic threshold level and signaled a risky market ahead. A symmetrical triangle pattern of the 30-year US treasury bond indicates that the bond price is very near a breakout point. If the Fed raises the interest rates this month, the bond price will break to the downside. Gold and silver strongly bounced off their support while the US dollar had a sell signal last week. The risk level becomes high for stocks, treasury bonds, and US dollar although we are is a typical bullish season. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 12/11/2015 followed by a bearish time-window afterwards. However, if a selloff is triggered anytime during the coming week, the short-term time-window is expected to turn immediately from neutral to bearish.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Seasonal Outperformance in Small Caps

Sunday, November 29, 2015

The general market moved in a very narrow range during this last holiday-shortened week except the strong U.S. dollar and small cap stocks. Recent waking up and outperforming of small-cap stocks indicate that the January Effect has started. The internet, semiconductors, and home construction sectors are leading the market slightly higher. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 12/7/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

A Best Week after a Worst Week

Sunday, November 22, 2015

The general stock market performed stronger than we expected and traded higher last week. The market had a best week after a worst week side by side. This is a bear market rally and the S&P 500 index is still in corrective primary wave A. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 11/27/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Stock Bear Market is Back

Sunday, November 15, 2015

The general stock market reversed after the warning sign from the negative divergence developed between the stock market price and its momentum. Last week our Broad Market Instability index surged up above the panic threshold, and the stock market suffered its worst week since August. Downward primary wave has resumed, and it is just the first down wave of a downward 1-2-3-4-5 sub-wave sequence. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 11/27/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Negative Divergence in the Stock Market

Sunday, November 8, 2015

Although the upward primary B wave extended than expected, there is a negative divergence developed between the stock market price and its momentum. This is a warning sign that a reverse is near and the downward primary C wave is the next. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 11/27/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Short-Term Momentum is Weakening

Sunday, November 1, 2015

The S&P 500 index has been in upward primary wave B for a month. It nears the end of the upward wave, and downward primary wave C will be the next. Crude oil could turn bullish once it has an upward breakout from its 1-year falling wedge. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 11/11/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Stock Market at a Turning Point

Sunday, October 25, 2015

Led by technology sector advance, the general stock market had a counter-trend rally of a bear market. Another downward primary wave will be the next. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 11/11/2015

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Counter-Trend Rally of a Bear Market

Sunday, October 11, 2015

Gold and crude oil are testing upper boundaries for a breakout from their falling wedge patterns. The stock market becomes short-term bullish but it is in a counter-trend rally of a bear market. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 10/19/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Markets are Volatile but Range-bound

Sunday, October 4, 2015

The general stock market returned to a choppy mode while our Broad Market Instability Index surged above the panic threshold. Crude oil and gold are waiting for a breakout from their falling wedge patterns. The 30-year US treasury bond and silver are waiting for a breakout from their symmetrical triangle patterns. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 10/8/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Caution, Leg Down in Bear Market

Sunday, September 27, 2015

The equity market started another leg down last week, as the biotech sector lost its multi-year market leadership and had its largest weekly drop in 7 years. Gold could launch a short-term rally once it breaks to the upside from an 1-year falling wedge pattern. Our Broad Market Instability Index is surging above the panic threshold. The current leg down of the market could send the S&P 500 index to 1840, the German DAX to 9000, and the Shanghai Composite index to 2600. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 10/8/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Bear Market Rally Failed

Sunday, September 20, 2015

Stock markets attempted to break a triangle range to upside but failed last week under the shadow of global growth slowdown. The sideways movement could continue in the coming week before the next leg down. Our bearish outlook on the stock markets alerts that the next leg down could send the S&P 500 index to 1840, the German DAX to 9000, and the Shanghai Composite index to 2600. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 9/25/2015, and a bearish time-window right after.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Looking to Break Triangle Range to Upside

Sunday, September 13, 2015

Stock markets have been choppy for last three weeks and price movement has been converged in a 3-week triangle pattern. It looks more likely that prices will break to the upside of the triangle for a bear market rally. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 9/25/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Oversold Markets Look to Rebound

Monday, September 7, 2015

Although global stock markets had a volatile week, our Broad Market Instability Index actually turned much lower below the panic threshold, which is a bullish divergence for stocks. Stock markets may rebound off oversold levels for a bear market rally. It becomes attractive that crude oil is building up a bullish bias on an 1-year falling wedge chart pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 9/25/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Watch Out for Volatile Market Swings

Monday, August 31, 2015

Oversold crude oil develops an one-year falling wedge pattern building up a bullish bias for technical speculation to break to the upside. The S&P 500 index and the German DAX try to bounce for a bear market rally. A bearish head-and-shoulders top pattern of the Shanghai Composite index suggests a downside risk to the 2600 level. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 9/2/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Instability Surging in Global Stock Markets

Sunday, August 23, 2015

All major stock market indexes around global plummet. The Broad Market Instability index surges above the panic threshold. The S&P 500 index broke downward from its 7-year rising wedge, and it turned into a primary corrective wave for a new bear market. The German DAX index also rolled over into a bear market. The Shanghai Composite index sharply broke below its 9-month trendline and a further selloff was triggered. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 9/3/2015.

SPX 8-21-2015 Monthly MACD + Rising Wedge

 

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Volatile and Choppy Markets

Sunday, August 16, 2015

Sideways markets continue in directionless but volatile and choppy. The S&P 500 index still develops an ending diagonal with the primary fifth wave which is a bearish sign to near the end of the bull market. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 8/28/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Stock Indexes Stuck in Neutral

Sunday, August 9, 2015

The Broad Market Instability Index is above the panic threshold level. The Wilshire 5000 index is below its 89-day exponential moving average, and the momentum is in the negative territory. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 8/11/2015, and to turn into a short-term bullish window right after.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Stock Markets at a Critical Juncture

Sunday, August 2, 2015

The broad stock market reaches the final stage of the bull market while the S&P 500 index is confined in a bearish ending diagonal. Once this ending diagonal breaks down, a primary corrective wave will start for a new bear market. The Chinese stock resumed its downtrend towards a new downside price target after the recent bounce failed with a bearish partial rise inside a 7-month ascending triangle pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 8/7/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Stock Markets Failed to Bounce Higher

Sunday, July 26, 2015

Analysis from daily, weekly and monthly charts of the S&P 500 index gives early warning signs of a potential new bear market. Our Broad Market Instability index surged up above 200 last week alerting for higher risk in stock markets in general. The recent bounce of the Shanghai stock index has met a resistance at the 89-day exponential moving average near 4100 and failed to advance further. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 8/7/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Stock Markets Continue to Bounce Higher

Sunday, July 19, 2015

Led by the Tokyo Nikkei index, the major world stock markets including the S&P 500 index, Shanghai index, and German DAX continue to bounce towards the upside. The gold index broke below the key support level of 1150, and a selloff was triggered. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 7/27/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Markets Bouncing

Sunday, July 12, 2015

The Chinese stock market had a very volatile week and reversed with the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index bouncing back from just over 3400 to about 3900. There is a limited time-window and a big challenge for this bounce. The S&P 500 index and German DAX are in a transition from a corrective wave to an upward wave. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 7/15/2015, and to turn into a bullish time-window right after.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Broad Market Instability Rising

Sunday, July 5, 2015

The Chines stock market sharply declined three weeks in a row and it has plunged 28% from its multi-year high. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index approaches 3600 which is expected to be the first level of defense against free-fall. The S&P 500 index and German DAX have been under the shadow of the Greece debt crisis. Our Broad Market Instability indicator has surged above the panic threshold. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 7/15/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Markets in Holding Mode ahead of Greek Resolution

Sunday, June 28, 2015

The S&P 500 index and German DAX are in holding mode with the uncertainty of Greek resolution. Following the warning sign we observed from a dangerous ending diagonal pattern on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index, the Chinese stock market had a 20% plunge over the last two weeks and it could decline more. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 7/2/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

SPX and DAX with Elliott Wave Bullish Bias

Sunday, June 21, 2015

The S&P 500 index (SPX) accumulates energy for next breakout while the treasury bonds build up a bullish bias. The German DAX is ending its two-month-long correction and is likely to resume its uptrend. The Chinese stock market had a dramatic bearish reversal last week, and it turns into a major correction. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 7/2/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Cautious Market with Fed Meeting and Triple Witching

Sunday, June 14, 2015

The inverse relationship between stocks and interest rates plays an important rule to the current stock market. This week’s U.S. central bank’s policy meeting will be the focus of financial markets. The market could be volatile also with the triple witching nears. There is still at least one more upside push left for the stock market before the Fed raises interest rates this year. The broad stock market is about to turn into a short-term bullish time-window and is projected to be in the bullish time-window until 6/25/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Weakness in Both Stocks and Bonds

Sunday, June 7, 2015

The U.S. stock market, U.S. treasury bond and U.S. dollar are likely bearish in the coming week. The Indian stock market is breaching a critical support, and the Chinese stock market is building up a dangerous ending diagonal pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 6/15/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Stocks Likely to Weaken in June

Sunday, May 31, 2015

The U.S. stock market is still in a flat correction and is likely to further weaken in June. The German DAX is in its intermediate fourth-wave correction. The Chinese stock market is forming a dangerous ending diagonal pattern which implies a dramatic decline ahead. The crude oil forms a bullish measured move up pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 6/15/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Choppy Market

Monday, May 25, 2015

The S&P 500 index is in a choppy mode, and the stock market is likely to weaken further in June. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 6/2/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Market Topping Process

Sunday, May 10, 2015

The S&P 500 index has been in a 2-month flat correction and it is waiting for a breakout from its 10-week ascending triangle pattern. The Chinese stock market turned into a major correction with the primary second wave, and the Indian stock market rolled over after a major bearish reversal. The German DAX index has been in a correction with the intermediate fourth wave. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 5/12/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Bearish Signs in Financial Markets

Sunday, May 3, 2015

A bearish sign appears as the S&P 500 index nears the end of its 6-year rising wedge. The U.S. dollar has formed a bump-and-run reversal top, and the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond also has a bearish sign with a partial rising inside a 9-month ascending broadening wedge. The Indian stock market has formed a major bearish reversal, and the German DAX index has been in an intermediate correction. Readings of the Broad Market Instability index are rising. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 5/14/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Stock Market Cautious

Sunday, April 26, 2015

The U.S. stock market is neutral, and the S&P 500 index is waiting for a breakout from an 8-week ascending triangle pattern. The German DAX index gets into a correction, and the Indian Bombay index has a bearish reversal while the Chinese Shanghai index is in the last up leg before a major correction. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 4/30/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Choppy Market Continues

Saturday, April 18, 2015

The S&P 500 index was unable to break above 2100, and it returned into a 7-week symmetrical triangle pattern to continue a choppy mode. Crude oil had a bullish breakout from a 3-month double bottoms pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 5/4/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Market Nears a Breakout

Sunday, April 12, 2015

The S&P 500 index nears the end of a choppy mode which is confined in a 6-week symmetrical triangle pattern. Once it breaks above 2100, the S&P 500 index could make a new high at 2173. Gold and crude oil also near their bullish breakout levels. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 4/20/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Weakening Market

Sunday, April 5, 2015

The U.S. stock market weakened after recent disappointing economic data. The mixed signals from our indicators point to a choppy market. The support level of 2040 will be critical for the S&P 500 index, because a breach of 2040 could change the market to a more conservative scenario. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 4/17/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Choppy Market

Sunday, March 29, 2015

The U.S. stock market lost momentum when major overseas market indexes like the German DAX, India Bombay index, and Shanghai index got in stalling with topping patterns. The market becomes choppy as it approaches the end of the first quarter and a short week with reporting several important economic data. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 4/2/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Stocks Resumed Uptrend

Sunday, March 22, 2015

The U.S. stock market finished the short-term pullback and resumed uptrend last week. The S&P 500 index has started the third upward minor wave which overlaps the third upward intermediate wave for forming a potentially strong U.S. stock market. We would be more cautious about overseas markets now because the German DAX, India Bombay index, and Shanghai index are in topping patterns in the intermediate-term time frame. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 4/2/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Watch: Triple Witching and FOMC Meeting

Sunday, March 15, 2015

As the U.S. dollar hits 12-year high and oil slumps to 6-year low, the pullback of the S&P 500 index has retraced to the 60% level of the previous upward minor wave. Our Broad Market Instability Index is above the panic threshold, and the stock market still needs few days of consolidation. The market could be volatile in the coming week with the triple witching and a FOMC meeting. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 3/19/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Stock Market in Short-Term Correction

Sunday, March 8, 2015

The stock market fell after strong US jobs data sparked Fed rate hike expectations. The S&P 500 index is developing the second minor wave which is a short-term corrective wave. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond and gold are also falling while the U.S. dollar resumes its uptrend. Our Broad Market Instability Index moved above the panic threshold. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 3/19/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Stock Market in Consolidation

Sunday, March 1, 2015

The S&P 500 index has been topping, and it just got into the second minor wave which is a short-term corrective wave. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond and gold could rebound from their recent lows. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 3/13/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Weak Bonds and Strong Stocks

Sunday, February 22, 2015

The S&P 500 index made a record high, and it is in the early stage of the intermediate third wave which has a minor five sub-wave sequence. Currently it is near the end of the first minor wave inside the intermediate third wave. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond is still falling from its 1-year Bump-and-Run Reversal Top. The broad stock is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 3/2/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Stock Market Challenges All-Time High

Sunday, February 15, 2015

After the bullish reversal on crude oil, the 30-year U.S. treasury bond is falling from its 1-year Bump-and-Run Reversal Top. The S&P 500 terminated its two-month-long flat correction, and started the intermediate impulse third wave to the upside. The broad stock market is breaking from the previous high, and it is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 2/19/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

Bad Omen for General Stock Market

Sunday, February 1, 2015

Four bearish indications from 1) Santa Claus rally failure, 2) the first five days of the year indicator, 3) the January barometer, and 4) Super Bowl Indicator seem an omen of a bear market for stocks to come in 2015. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 2/5/2015.

To read the full content, subscribe now »

 


 

 

 

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s