Latest Market Update

Complex Correction Makes Stock Market Choppy

Sunday, September 28, 2014

Following the warning sign from wave X, the S&P 500 index fell from its all time high and got into the second A-B-C corrective wave pattern while the Broad Market Instability index surged to a 7-month high. The primary fourth wave is becoming a complex correction that could make the current primary corrective wave in a sideways-market pattern. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 9/30/2014 and would be in a short-term bullish time-window until 10/17/2014.

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Stocks in a Sideways Market Likely

Sunday, September 21, 2014

The U.S. 30-year treasury bond bounced off the lower boundary of its 9-month uptrend channel while the U.S. dollar continued to test the upper resistance level near 85. Gold and silver are in a descending triangle pattern for their next breakout. The crude oil is still in a multi-month bearish downtrend channel. Although the S&P 500 index was near the all time high, the Broad Market Instability (BIX) surged above the panic threshold level and the momentum indicator stayed in the negative territory last week. The current upward wave on the S&P 500 index is characterized as wave X which is a warning sign for another potential A-B-C corrective pattern to form a complex correction or a sideways market. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 9/24/2014 and would be in a short-term bullish time-window until 10/3/2014.

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Watch Out Intermarket Technical Key Levels

Sunday, September 14, 2014

Anxiety ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting this coming week generated a bearish sentiment on financial market indices except the U.S. dollar. Several major market indices approach critical boundaries of their chart patterns. The U.S. dollar is meeting the upper resistance level 84.5 of its 3-year long-term horizontal trading range. The U.S. 30-year treasury bond reaches the lower boundary of its 8-month uptrend channel. The gold index is waiting for a major breakout from a 16-month descending triangle pattern. The S&P 500 index has started the intermediate C wave towards the downside, and the 1910 level will be a key level to keep eyes on. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 9/19/2014 which will be coincident with September Triple Witching day. The German DAX continues to form a potential head-and-shoulders top pattern having a neckline at the 9000 level.

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S&P 500 Index at a Turning Point

Sunday, September 7, 2014

The U.S. dollar made a 52-week high and reached our upside price target 83.5. The U.S. 30-year treasury bond retreated after it touched the upper boundary of its 8-month uptrend channel. The S&P 500 index is at a turning point to end the intermediate upward B wave and to start the intermediate C wave towards the downside. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 9/19/2014 which will be coincident with September Triple Witching day. The German DAX looks like forming a head-and-shoulders top pattern with a neckline at the 9000 level. The Shanghai Composite index had a bullish breakout from an one-year horizontal trading range, and further signaled a long-term bullish reversal of the Chinese stock market from its multi-year low.

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The Stock Market Now in September

Monday, September 1, 2014

As the U.S. 30-year treasury bond makes another 52-week high and the U.S. dollar challenges its 52-week high, the strong August rebound of the S&P 500 index driven by the intermediate upward B wave nears its end. The intermediate C wave will start towards the downside as soon as the B wave ends. Although a flat correction pattern is most likely, the August low around 1910 will be a key level to test the strength of the S&P 500 index. A weakening market is projected towards September Triple Witching day. The German DAX has more downside risk with its potential zigzag correction pattern. The India Bombay Stock Exchange index is still in a bullish uptrend along its accelerated slope driven by excessive speculation. The recent powerful rebound of the Shanghai Composite index is blocked by a strong resistance at the 2250 level, and it is gathering energy for the next breakout from the resistance.

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U.S. Dollar Bullish Breakout from a Range

Sunday, August 24, 2014

The U.S. dollar broke above the upper resistance of a 9-month horizontal trading range, and advanced sharply. As the intermediate upward B wave sends the S&P 500 to an all time high, the intermediate A-B-C corrective wave structure is becoming a flat correction in a pattern of either an expanded flat or a running flat depending on how the next C wave goes. The German DAX is recently much weaker than the S&P 500 index, and its next C wave could go much lower than the A wave because its current intermediate A-B-C correction is most likely a zigzag correction rather than a flat correction.

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U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bond at 52-Week High

Sunday, August 17, 2014

The 30-year U.S. treasury bond index rallied up to a 52-week high within a 7-month bullish uptrend channel. The S&P 500 index rebounded with intermediate wave B which is the middle part of an intermediate A-B-C corrective phase. The biotech, semiconductors, and precious metals sectors are ranked at the top of the sector performance for last week. Our major global market performance ranking has the Hong Kong stock market at the top and the German stock market at the bottom for last week.

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U.S. Treasury Bond Prices Leading

Sunday, August 10, 2014

The 30-year U.S. treasury bond index remains in a 7-month bullish uptrend channel while the U.S. dollar is in a 9-month neutral horizontal trading range. The gold index and the precious metals sector continue to build up bullish patterns for the next breakout. The first downward leg of the primary correction on both the S&P 500 index and the German DAX nears its end, and a rebound is expected before the second downward leg of the correction. Our major global market performance ranking has the Chinese stock market at the top and the Russian stock market at the bottom for last week.

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The Broad Stock Market in a Correction

Sunday, August 3, 2014

The S&P 500 index and the German DAX sharply broke down their multi-month Ending Diagonals early than expected, and started a correction with the intermediate A-wave which is the first downward leg of the primary corrective fourth wave. The Broad Market Instability index surged above the panic threshold level. At the opposite side, the Shanghai composite index may come to the end of its years-long bear market after a recent bullish explosive breakout from a 5-year Ending Diagonal. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 8/13/2014.

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SPX and DAX in Late Part of Intermediate Fifth Wave

Sunday, July 27, 2014

The S&P 500 index and the German DAX approach the late part of the intermediate impulse fifth wave which is the final leg of the 34-month-long primary third wave before a major correction. Their recent 3-month ending diagonal patterns imply a bearish reversal ahead for the medium-term. At the opposite side, the Chinese stock market has a fresh long-term bullish reversal signal with a major bullish breakout from its 5-year falling wedge pattern. Gold, silver, and their mining stocks are developing bullish patterns for the next breakout. The U.S. treasury bond remains in a 7-month bullish uptrend channel while the U.S. dollar is in a 9-month neutral horizontal trading range. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bullish time-window until 8/7/2014.

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Bullish Bias in Commodity-Related Sectors

Sunday, July 20, 2014

Gold, XAU gold/silver mining stock index, GDX gold miners ETF, and crude oil continue developing bullish patterns. Semiconductors, precious metals, and oil equipment sectors were ranked as top performers last week. The broad stock market is still in a short-term corrective wave inside a 3-month Ending Diagonal, and it is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 7/23/2014.

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The Broad Stock Market in a Short-Term Corrective Wave

Saturday, July 12, 2014

The S&P 500 index is in a short-term corrective wave inside a 3-month Ending Diagonal. Gold continues developing a potential bullish reversal pattern. The precious metals sector is ranked as a top performer this week. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond resumed its uptrend. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term bearish time-window until 7/23/2014.

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The S&P 500 Index in an Ending Diagonal Pattern

Sunday, July 6, 2014

The S&P 500 index is forming an Ending Diagonal together with the intermediate fifth wave as the final leg of the 33-month-long primary third wave. Gold is developing a potential bullish reversal pattern. The 30-year U.S. treasury bond had a bearish downward breakout from a rising wedge pattern while interest rates jumped. Interest-rate-sensitive sectors like utilities and real estate are underperforming the general stock market. The broad stock market is projected to be in a short-term neutral time-window until 7/10/2014.

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